iowa -1
- Thread starter SotaHawk87
- Start date
Yeah, best to wait until later in the week to see which way the line moves.
Iowa is 4-0 ATS on the road this season fwiw.
You (and other ISU and UN fans) realize that Vegas....Never mind. You clowns aren't worth it.
Vegas has no interest in the reality of the football. Just in how the trashy people who wager money on amateur athletics will react to recent developments.
I kind of disagree with you here. Most people betting right now aren't your casual gambler. People betting right when the lines come out are generally the 'smart money'. I love that the line moved to -3 right away. Tells me people in the know like Iowa in this game.
Vegas has a huge interest, which is to make money. They think they can get the most money out of a Iowa -1 line. Lets face it, people are not going to bet on unranked Nebraska +1, they are going to take the obvious #5 Iowa -1. Which a lot of people have, hence why the line moved to -3 or whatever. The line moved to -3 to get more people betting on Nebraska. Vegas put their money on Iowa losing, which is how they'll make the most money.
They are not right all they time, but I see it as Vegas is trying to con you into betting stupidly.
Betting patterns are a strong indicator on how people feel, yes. THe opening line at -1 is scary because the only way for Vegas to win (unless everyone is picking Nebraska +1) is Nebraska winning since a tie with the line usually cancels out.
Yup - Currently up to Iowa -3. The Sharps will wait for it to get to -3.5 or -4 and then pound Nebraska until the line gets close to a pick-em by kickoff.
Wrong.
They are trying to generate a 50/50 split in the action. They do not set a line thinking "most people are going to bet this way", because every once in awhile, "most people" will be right and they'll lose their ass.
Nope. Not one bit. Take a look at the Iowa-Iowa State lines over the last 20 years or so for proof.
Vegas "wins" when there is equal action on both sides, not when one side is heavily wagered and they just cross their fingers hoping that side wins. That would be a retardedly stupid business model.
That's right Vegas loves these types of games, keeps everyone on their toes. I wouldn't be suprised if iowa wins by 3 or more tds, then I wouldn't be suprised if Nebby gets the refs on their side and pull out a 7 point upset
As I recall, typically home field advantage typically impacts the line - often on the order of a score. Thus, an opening line of Iowa -1 essentially tells me that "all things even" they'd think that even money would have Iowa by a score. However, home-field advantage tips that to nearly a push.
It seems to me that Iowa has tended to play better on the road this year - perhaps the prospect of the hostile environment galvanizes their collective focus. Hopefully it continues to be the case ... because I want them to be playing at their very best this Friday.
It seems to me that Iowa has tended to play better on the road this year - perhaps the prospect of the hostile environment galvanizes their collective focus. Hopefully it continues to be the case ... because I want them to be playing at their very best this Friday.
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