Interesting to be favored so much on the road vs #17. Hopefully it’s a positive sign, and we cover easily!
Iowa -4.5 @ Iowa State
- Thread starter DallasIAHawk
- Start date
I'm a little surprised, but I think 2-22 carries more weight with a lot of people than 8-0..
I wouldn't touch that spread with a 10 foot pole. Iowa State has won every game they were an underdog in so far this year.
It’s a very interesting line.
I’d also stay away. True four outcome game - could see anything happen. Iowa State is probably not as good as their 8-0 indicates, Iowa probably better than their resume too. How much worse is ISU or better is Iowa, I don’t know.
A lot of the computers like Iowa a lot more than ISU, but I don’t know how they come to conclusions. Are we at the point in the season where last year’s information is no longer referenced or not? In any case, Iowa has done a good job blowing the doors off the “buy game” opponents, while ISU hasn’t so much. So that’s probably skewing things a lot this early in the season.
Nothing would surprise me tonight, and both teams should feel good about their chances IMO.
I’d also stay away. True four outcome game - could see anything happen. Iowa State is probably not as good as their 8-0 indicates, Iowa probably better than their resume too. How much worse is ISU or better is Iowa, I don’t know.
A lot of the computers like Iowa a lot more than ISU, but I don’t know how they come to conclusions. Are we at the point in the season where last year’s information is no longer referenced or not? In any case, Iowa has done a good job blowing the doors off the “buy game” opponents, while ISU hasn’t so much. So that’s probably skewing things a lot this early in the season.
Nothing would surprise me tonight, and both teams should feel good about their chances IMO.
I haven't seen a single ISU game. Do they have anyone over 6'9? Iowa has some shooters, can run, and finally put a lineup out there that can play D when needed, but we won't out rebound anyone with our lack of inside presence.
I see it at -5.5. That sure seems odd for a rivalry game on the road.
I see it at -5.5. That sure seems odd for a rivalry game on the road.
Up to 5.5 now. Started at 3.
Lines are heavily computer generated at this point in the season. And the computers love Iowa's scoring numbers. Vegas has shown Iowa consistent love this season.
So much early line movement toward the road team indicates sharps liking Iowa tonight also. That makes sense because anyone with a pair of eyes can see that Iowa is the better caliber team
Lines are heavily computer generated at this point in the season. And the computers love Iowa's scoring numbers. Vegas has shown Iowa consistent love this season.
So much early line movement toward the road team indicates sharps liking Iowa tonight also. That makes sense because anyone with a pair of eyes can see that Iowa is the better caliber team
Watched a little bit, 2 6'9" guys start and rebound like mad. Don't know about bench. My guess, we rebound with some authority tonite and that turns game for us.
It's hard to know how tonight would go. You could convince me of any outcome. It's a real strength vs. strength matchup - ISU is one of the best teams at forcing turnovers in the country. Iowa is one of the best at not turning it over. Iowa has a very good press, and ISU struggled against it with Creighton. etc. etc.
Potential outcomes range is large. My best hope is that a lot depends on Fran and who he plays. Give us all the JBo and Connor you want. Of course now watch JBo go off for 24 on 8 for 11 from 3 point. But I think our guards are too athletic for either of those 2 to have much impact. Joe T and Tyrese Hunter are both athletic and quick but seem to both have a tendency to push a little too hard at times leading to turnovers. Perkins has looked good. Brockington very athletic, good rebounder but shooting has been sporadic. We need somebody to get hot from 3 point. I think Conditt does well against Rebracca if he doesn't get too amped up and get 3 fouls in the first 10 minutes. I think the real issue for the Clones comes if Fran plays both Murrays together and Joe T and Perkins have good games. I don't know if our defense can stop the Murrays. I'm hoping Fran goes with a lot of JBo and Connor. And please Fran at least start JBo the crowd reaction to his intro would be epic and fun for all. LOL Hoping for a good game but of course a Clone win, guess we will see what happens!
Correct. Bohannon's had a great Iowa career, knocked down some huge shots, but team's arent even letting him breathe this year and he can't get himself open. Maybe ISU will have some defensive breakdowns to get him a look
A huge factor is how the game is called. Both teams pressure the ball, which could lead to a lot of fouls, and that would be a plus for Iowa. Cyclones are not at all deep. Conditt, especially, is foul-prone.
Another question for ISU is where the points will come from. There are several streak shooters. Grill and Kunc are both shooting nearly 50% from beyond the arc, but that's misleading as Kunc was 5-5 in one game and Grill was 4-4 in another. The two guys who shoot the most treys, Kalscheur and Hunter, are under 25% from out there.
Another question for ISU is where the points will come from. There are several streak shooters. Grill and Kunc are both shooting nearly 50% from beyond the arc, but that's misleading as Kunc was 5-5 in one game and Grill was 4-4 in another. The two guys who shoot the most treys, Kalscheur and Hunter, are under 25% from out there.
Last edited:
As stated above, this matchup is strength vs strength. The reason that Vegas is leaning Iowa is probably because Iowa’s proved they can take care of the ball not just this year, but before that. The stats will tell you that TJ’s previous teams didn’t turn people over like this.
Vegas is probably skeptical about ISU’s forced turnover rate, because they’ve only played 1 team in the top 200 in turnover %. That would be an Oregon St team who is going to make a run for worst power 6 team. So they really haven’t played an opponent who’s disciplined and has talent.
Iowa has really only played 1 good team that tries to force turnovers (UVA), but UVA doesn’t play in the passing lanes. They pressure the ball. So it’ll be a different look going against the clones.
Both teams still have a lot to prove so I wouldn’t guarantee a victory either way. What I will say is that if Iowa takes care of the ball, Iowa St is going to have to prove they can outscore Iowa in the half court.
Vegas is probably skeptical about ISU’s forced turnover rate, because they’ve only played 1 team in the top 200 in turnover %. That would be an Oregon St team who is going to make a run for worst power 6 team. So they really haven’t played an opponent who’s disciplined and has talent.
Iowa has really only played 1 good team that tries to force turnovers (UVA), but UVA doesn’t play in the passing lanes. They pressure the ball. So it’ll be a different look going against the clones.
Both teams still have a lot to prove so I wouldn’t guarantee a victory either way. What I will say is that if Iowa takes care of the ball, Iowa St is going to have to prove they can outscore Iowa in the half court.
It's pretty amazing how great of a 3 point shooter Gabe was as a Freshman, to where he's gone since.
C- George Conditt 6'10 235 lbs *starter*
C- Robert Jones 245 lbs
PF- Tristan Enaruna 6'9 225 lbs *starter*
PF- Tre King 6'9 225 lbs "not eligible yet"
PF- Aljaz Kunc 6'8 210 Pounds
Brockington has improved to 44% from 3 so far this season, and Tre is close to 40% on the year.
Kind of like the Nebraska football team was a better team than Iowa based on the spread?
I think teams who score at a high offensive rate always get love in Vegas. And I do think there is 2-22 from last year is still baked into the number.
Not really sure how great either team is, at this point I think ISU winning on the road at Creighton is the best win. But Creighton probably not as strong as recent years.
Iowa's win at Virginia, probably their best, but then I saw Virgina need a last second shot to beat a very average Pitt team at home.
But perhaps their best was that solid road effort at Purdue
Ask me right now these 2 teams probably are 8-10 seeds in the NCAA tourney by years end. Which based on where they were both picked in their conference, would be a nice result.
Did you share this same idea when Iowa State was favored in games we won as underdogs?
JBo will start. Fran doesn't alter starting lineups assuming everyone is healthy.
There is an odds boost on draftkings for Iowa to win by 10+ points. Take that for what you will..
Depending on the ranking, some still have pre-season expectations factored in. Which would obviously impact Iowa State in a bad way. Just looking at Iowa State's schedule, the less-than impressive wins over Alabama State, Oregon State and Kenesaw would hurt Iowa State. Oregon State is 1-8. Kennesaw is 3-6 and 237 in KenPom. Alabama State is 2-8 and in the 300s and Iowa State won that game by 8 (Iowa won by 20 in an unimpressive game). But Iowa's schedule has been worse in terms of bad opponents, just Iowa has run up some big margins against bad teams, won at Virginia and played it close against good teams in Purdue and Illinois.
But I would not take Iowa and the 4.5 or 5 points. Iowa might/could win, but I would seek this as a pick-em and not Iowa -5.
God damnit - even our rivals know our biggest weaknesses. Connor going for 8 points and 5 boards and 4 assists tonight. Calling it!
How the hell is Iowa favored??? The Cyclones already have some impressive wins, they're undefeated, and we're playing on the road.
All they have to do is watch games, it's not rocket science. If Connor could produce those kinds of numbers on a consistent basis, his detractors, like me, would stop
How is a ranked team a dog on the road to a 3-8 football team?
Vegas simply just trying to get bets on both sides and make a profit on the vig.
Throw in the fact that in many of the sites like KenPom, ISU started at like 150 in preseason statstical rankings. Takes awhile to figure out where they will settle.
The 3 other teams in that tourney ISU played at in NY all are currently ranked in the 30's (KenPom)ISU is in the 60's. Makes no sense.
Lots of last year baked into this line imho.
And Vegas are not fans of defensive style, see football spread above
ISU M/L is a good value, they have provided lots of good value/payouts so far this year. Lots of people still trying to figure them out.
Last edited:
Not really. Memphis is a poor scoring team. Their leading scorer is a true freshman shooting 38%. Bates will be good but isn’t yet
This is a down year for Creighton as well. No go-to scorer, a bad loss against Colorado St, and their best win is against a bad Nebraska team
Unless you bet against the Hawks. That ML/Under 151 parlay at +446 was like stealing.
ISU has been a cash cow on the Money line this year.
ISU started season really low in the analytics world, Ken Pom even after tonight still has them only at 49, which points to the flaws in these tools early in the seaon. Xavier, Memphis and Iowa all rank higher even though ISU blew them all out.
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
Fran Zoom Availability, 2/27 -- Expects Drew Thelwell to Play on Friday
- Latest: WaterlooChazz
-
-
-
