People who set odds are not trying to figure out who is going to win or lose. They are trying to equal out the bets on both sides. They make money on a service fee, and if they hit the number on the nose. PA has 12.5 Million People, and most of it is Penn State Country. Iowa has what, 4 million people? Odds makers think Iowa will win. This is about enticing Penn State fans to bet to equal out against people who really follow football, who will bet their head and not their heart.
Once you figure this out, you can make money betting football.