I posted something similar in another thread. I'm not really sure how Michigan is even in the conversation at this point. Their SOS is also worse than Iowa's.
Iowa needs to shore up their OOC SOS in its future schedules. Their OOC SOS was 216 this season and that is with Oklahoma State. I can't imagine what it would be without that series and adding a midweek game with Mizzu.
It's a tricky balance. Iowa generally need some time to develop. They go south and play the first few weekends. Lots of times, they end up playing a Ball State or a Virginia Tech or another semi northern team down in Florida. I suppose they could load up and just try to play powerhouse teams, but could get buried. Iowa did play 3 against UAB, who ended up not being very good. And 3 against Evansville, who ended up being bad.
The options for filling in mid-week games against good teams is tough. You want to schedule teams close by, and you can see Iowa trying to be creative there. Adding Missouri State in KC, adding Missouri in IC, playing non-D1 teams that don't impact the RPI, playing St. Louis, playing Bradley. But Northern Illinois, Milwaukee and Western Illinois were all 200+ RPI teams. Penn State and Northwestern being crappy (and losing 2 to Northwestern) put a boat anchor on Iowa's RPI.
Next year Iowa will play at Okie State for 3, and I believe will return to Missouri to a mid-week game. Tough road games. Iowa usually tries to wedge in Missouri State somewhere in the non-con. If they can find the sweet spot of the 75-150 type teams that don't boat anchor the RPI, that would be ideal.
Leistikow said in his column today that if Iowa wins 3 straight to get to the finals, they are likely in. I would agree with that. It would be wins over Michigan, either Purdue or OSU, and then likely Minnesota or Indiana. That would give Iowa quite a boost and make its record very good against Top 100 teams. Winning Game 1 is the key (duh). But I think if they can get 1 under their belt right away things start to open up.
