— With the Iowa caucuses just one week from today, there is growing concern among elites in both parties about what it means for the state’s special status if Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz win but go on to lose the nomination.
If the Vermont senator wins, it could extend the Democratic primaries for months and bloody Hillary Clinton for the general election.
If the Texas senator wins, it would be the third race in a row that the most vocal of the socially-conservative contenders prevails. Just like 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee and 2012 winner Rick Santorum, Cruz has staked out positions on issues from abortion to gay marriage that would make it difficult to win a national election.
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There are also perennial concerns about Iowa bungling its moment in the spotlight. Four years ago, Mitt Romney was named the winner on caucus night – only to have the call reversed weeks later.
“Iowa is already in trouble,” said one worried former state GOP official, who is not aligned with either of the leading candidates. “It’s definitely in danger. If anything goes wrong on caucus night, it’s just over.” He was one of a dozen Iowans I spoke with about this issue on Sunday.
— Donald Trump has regained an edge over Cruz in Iowa. A Fox News poll released yesterday shows the billionaire leading Cruz by 11 points among likely caucus-goers (34 percent to 23 percent), a 15-point swing in his favor since the start of this month. Cruz’s 14-point advantage among white evangelical Christians is now down to a 2-point edge, per Fox. A less reliable CBS/YouGov poll put Trump up 5 points in Iowa (39-34), with recent gains driven by evangelicals and tea partiers ditching Cruz. It’s the latest bad news for the Texan, as sustained assaults from all sides (on everything from ethanol to being born in Canada) take a toll on his image.
— Key establishment figures appear to be subtly tipping the scales toward Trump, partly because they worry about the consequences of a Cruz victory for the Hawkeye State’s legitimacy.
Chuck Grassley, the senior senator, spoke at Trump’s rally in Pella on Saturday. Standing behind a “Trump” podium, he echoed the frontrunner’s campaign slogan and spoke about “once again” making America great. “I want Mr. Trump to know that I appreciate his support for me and most importantly for Iowa being first in the nation, our all-important Iowa caucus,” Grassley told the crowd of about 500.
Then Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann showed up at Trump’s rally on Sunday in Muscatine, saying he will support The Donald “one thousand percent, period” if he wins the caucuses.
Gov. Terry Branstad, who said last week he wants Cruz to lose and whose son is running the anti-Cruz campaign funded by the agriculture industry, even went deer hunting with Trump’s son, Donald Jr.
Aides to Grassley and Kaufmann sought to downplay the significance of their appearances, stressing that neither is endorsing the businessman. Kaufmann has introduced other candidates over the past year, and Grassley plans to appear with other candidates later this week.
— But their appearance sent an unmistakable message to rank-and-file Republicans that it is acceptable to support Trump, making it a pretty significant weekend for Trump’s efforts to make inroads with the establishment. Grassley last week, like Branstad, also made clear that he disagrees with Cruz on ethanol and wind.
“This is a double-edged sword,” explained a veteran GOP operative who is aligned with the Branstad wing of the party. “If the national frontrunner wins Iowa, are we really so special? On the flip side, if we nominate a totally unelectable anathema to our party, the DC powerbrokers will yank it away from us faster than you can say ‘Ted Cruz.’ Neither prospect is particularly attractive, but it’s where we are. The fact is, we are safer giving the nod to the national frontrunner because if Trump wins here, he is the likeliest of nominees.”
Craig Robinson, editor of a popular blog called The Iowa Republican, said “discussions like these are overblown, but Iowa will be defined by whoever wins here.”
“If Cruz wins Iowa, I expect to hear the same tired argument that Iowa is just too conservative,” Robinson emailed between the AFC and NFC championship games. “If Trump wins, I’m not sure that one can argue that we’ve gone mad because it essentially will confirm the polling we see nationally and even in other early states. Frankly, if Trump is able to pull off a win in Iowa, it will disprove the past critics who claim that we are just too socially conservative.”
— Some reject Trump vs. Cruz as a false choice. Joni Ernst, for example, will join Marco Rubio at a rally in Des Moines today. It is not an official endorsement, but the first-term senator will offer valuable validation for her colleague, who has moved into a clear third-place. “Marco is not only a strong conservative and a good friend, but someone that I trust to secure our country,” Ernst said in a statement.
— Most Americans already do not like Iowa’s special role in picking the president. Half of registered voters in a national poll conducted through this weekend by the Morning Consult said they support reducing Iowa and New Hampshire’s influence in the nominating process. Only 16 percent oppose such changes. In the weighted online poll, with a sample of more than 2,000 voters, a majority supported three significant changes. Two-thirds back a nationwide primary, in which all states would hold their primaries and caucuses on the same day; 63 percent support rotating the first state among all the states; and 55 percent back a Regional Primary System, in which states in each census region would hold their primaries and caucuses on the same day. See the crosstabs – and read a full memo – from the nonpartisan Morning Consult here.
— Iowa boosters also say that their state should not get credit or blame for Cruz, Trump or Sanders – because each has tapped into something much bigger. A senior Iowa Republican argues that Trump and Cruz are a national problem, not an Iowa one: “Of course it is a concern, but no less a concern than what shape the Republican Party is in nationally if we nominate Cruz or Trump. Iowa is simply a window into the broader Republican Party, and national leaders and strategists who fail to acknowledge that reality are fooling themselves.”
To be sure, Iowa has rarely been determinative, and historically the state plays more of a winnowing role. Only three non-incumbent candidates have won the caucuses and went on to win the presidency since 1972—Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and President Obama.
— Quadrennial complaints about Iowa are inevitable, but experts agree that any change is unlikely. University of Georgia political scientist Josh Putnam, who obsessively tracks the party calendars on his Frontloading HQ blog, outlined the difficulties of uprooting the four early states. “That is mostly because there would likely have to be agreement across the DNC and RNC not only to shift any of them away from the front of the queue, but on which state would replace them,” he emailed. “The first of those hurdles is difficult enough to clear. The second would be even tougher since the two parties have competing but different interests.”
Inevitably, though, other states will try to move up their contests again if Iowa is perceived as botching the caucuses. Florida, which scheduled an early primary in 2012, moved it back this year to avoid losing delegates as punishment. The main motivation was making sure that favorite son Jeb Bush – back when he was perceived as the likely front-runner – got all the Sunshine State’s delegates on March 15. Other states, like Michigan, could also try to move earlier to get more attention from the candidates.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...p-the-scale-for-trump-over-cruz/?tid=pm_pop_b
If the Vermont senator wins, it could extend the Democratic primaries for months and bloody Hillary Clinton for the general election.
If the Texas senator wins, it would be the third race in a row that the most vocal of the socially-conservative contenders prevails. Just like 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee and 2012 winner Rick Santorum, Cruz has staked out positions on issues from abortion to gay marriage that would make it difficult to win a national election.
[Get more campaign news delivered directly to your email inbox by signing up for The Daily 202]
There are also perennial concerns about Iowa bungling its moment in the spotlight. Four years ago, Mitt Romney was named the winner on caucus night – only to have the call reversed weeks later.
“Iowa is already in trouble,” said one worried former state GOP official, who is not aligned with either of the leading candidates. “It’s definitely in danger. If anything goes wrong on caucus night, it’s just over.” He was one of a dozen Iowans I spoke with about this issue on Sunday.
— Donald Trump has regained an edge over Cruz in Iowa. A Fox News poll released yesterday shows the billionaire leading Cruz by 11 points among likely caucus-goers (34 percent to 23 percent), a 15-point swing in his favor since the start of this month. Cruz’s 14-point advantage among white evangelical Christians is now down to a 2-point edge, per Fox. A less reliable CBS/YouGov poll put Trump up 5 points in Iowa (39-34), with recent gains driven by evangelicals and tea partiers ditching Cruz. It’s the latest bad news for the Texan, as sustained assaults from all sides (on everything from ethanol to being born in Canada) take a toll on his image.
— Key establishment figures appear to be subtly tipping the scales toward Trump, partly because they worry about the consequences of a Cruz victory for the Hawkeye State’s legitimacy.
Chuck Grassley, the senior senator, spoke at Trump’s rally in Pella on Saturday. Standing behind a “Trump” podium, he echoed the frontrunner’s campaign slogan and spoke about “once again” making America great. “I want Mr. Trump to know that I appreciate his support for me and most importantly for Iowa being first in the nation, our all-important Iowa caucus,” Grassley told the crowd of about 500.
Then Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann showed up at Trump’s rally on Sunday in Muscatine, saying he will support The Donald “one thousand percent, period” if he wins the caucuses.
Gov. Terry Branstad, who said last week he wants Cruz to lose and whose son is running the anti-Cruz campaign funded by the agriculture industry, even went deer hunting with Trump’s son, Donald Jr.
Aides to Grassley and Kaufmann sought to downplay the significance of their appearances, stressing that neither is endorsing the businessman. Kaufmann has introduced other candidates over the past year, and Grassley plans to appear with other candidates later this week.
— But their appearance sent an unmistakable message to rank-and-file Republicans that it is acceptable to support Trump, making it a pretty significant weekend for Trump’s efforts to make inroads with the establishment. Grassley last week, like Branstad, also made clear that he disagrees with Cruz on ethanol and wind.
“This is a double-edged sword,” explained a veteran GOP operative who is aligned with the Branstad wing of the party. “If the national frontrunner wins Iowa, are we really so special? On the flip side, if we nominate a totally unelectable anathema to our party, the DC powerbrokers will yank it away from us faster than you can say ‘Ted Cruz.’ Neither prospect is particularly attractive, but it’s where we are. The fact is, we are safer giving the nod to the national frontrunner because if Trump wins here, he is the likeliest of nominees.”
Craig Robinson, editor of a popular blog called The Iowa Republican, said “discussions like these are overblown, but Iowa will be defined by whoever wins here.”
“If Cruz wins Iowa, I expect to hear the same tired argument that Iowa is just too conservative,” Robinson emailed between the AFC and NFC championship games. “If Trump wins, I’m not sure that one can argue that we’ve gone mad because it essentially will confirm the polling we see nationally and even in other early states. Frankly, if Trump is able to pull off a win in Iowa, it will disprove the past critics who claim that we are just too socially conservative.”
— Some reject Trump vs. Cruz as a false choice. Joni Ernst, for example, will join Marco Rubio at a rally in Des Moines today. It is not an official endorsement, but the first-term senator will offer valuable validation for her colleague, who has moved into a clear third-place. “Marco is not only a strong conservative and a good friend, but someone that I trust to secure our country,” Ernst said in a statement.
— Most Americans already do not like Iowa’s special role in picking the president. Half of registered voters in a national poll conducted through this weekend by the Morning Consult said they support reducing Iowa and New Hampshire’s influence in the nominating process. Only 16 percent oppose such changes. In the weighted online poll, with a sample of more than 2,000 voters, a majority supported three significant changes. Two-thirds back a nationwide primary, in which all states would hold their primaries and caucuses on the same day; 63 percent support rotating the first state among all the states; and 55 percent back a Regional Primary System, in which states in each census region would hold their primaries and caucuses on the same day. See the crosstabs – and read a full memo – from the nonpartisan Morning Consult here.
— Iowa boosters also say that their state should not get credit or blame for Cruz, Trump or Sanders – because each has tapped into something much bigger. A senior Iowa Republican argues that Trump and Cruz are a national problem, not an Iowa one: “Of course it is a concern, but no less a concern than what shape the Republican Party is in nationally if we nominate Cruz or Trump. Iowa is simply a window into the broader Republican Party, and national leaders and strategists who fail to acknowledge that reality are fooling themselves.”
To be sure, Iowa has rarely been determinative, and historically the state plays more of a winnowing role. Only three non-incumbent candidates have won the caucuses and went on to win the presidency since 1972—Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and President Obama.
— Quadrennial complaints about Iowa are inevitable, but experts agree that any change is unlikely. University of Georgia political scientist Josh Putnam, who obsessively tracks the party calendars on his Frontloading HQ blog, outlined the difficulties of uprooting the four early states. “That is mostly because there would likely have to be agreement across the DNC and RNC not only to shift any of them away from the front of the queue, but on which state would replace them,” he emailed. “The first of those hurdles is difficult enough to clear. The second would be even tougher since the two parties have competing but different interests.”
Inevitably, though, other states will try to move up their contests again if Iowa is perceived as botching the caucuses. Florida, which scheduled an early primary in 2012, moved it back this year to avoid losing delegates as punishment. The main motivation was making sure that favorite son Jeb Bush – back when he was perceived as the likely front-runner – got all the Sunshine State’s delegates on March 15. Other states, like Michigan, could also try to move earlier to get more attention from the candidates.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...p-the-scale-for-trump-over-cruz/?tid=pm_pop_b
