Iowa Playoff Hopes Not Totally Gone

[stanzithemanzi12]

Iowa State is only making the playoffs if they win the Big 12 championship game. I don't think they're in otherwise.

#1 - We need to win out.
#2 - We need Ohio State to win out.
#3 - We need Oregon to play against Ohio State in B1G Championship
#4 - We need to Penn State to lose to Ohio State at home as well as either at Wisconsin or at Minnesota (two teams we would have beaten).

#5 - We need Iowa State to be undefeated heading into the Big 12 championship against a top 20 ranked BYU or Kansas State and they lose in Big 12 championship. The playoff committee will likely drop Iowa State out of the top 12 and below the Big 12 champion, but they'll still be ranked like in top 15. I don't think playoffs will let two teams from Iowa in the playoffs so it's best that Kansas State or BYU wins the Big 12 leaving a 1-loss Iowa State on the outside looking in.

#6 - We need Nebraska to be ranked when we play them to end the year.

If all above holds true, I see our playoff ranking being the following (keep in mind Ohio State and Iowa State keep winning):
(7-2) #18 after Nov. 2 win against Wisconsin
(8-2) #17 after Nov. 8 win @ UCLA
(9-2) #15 after Nov. 23 win @ Maryland
(10-2) #12 after Nov. 29 win against a ranked Nebraska

Playoffs (4 SEC, 3 or 4 B1G, 2 ACC, 1 or 2 Big 12, 1 Mountain West)
Texas
Ohio State
Oregon
Alabama
Georgia
ACC Champ
Miami/Clemson
LSU/Tennessee
Big 12 Champ (Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State)
Boise State
Iowa/Penn State
Iowa/Penn State/Big 12

Iowa would have an extremely strong case in this scenario to be the 3rd B1G team over Penn State.

• Our only losses would be against likely #2 or #3 Ohio State and it was @ Ohio State (where Penn State would have lost at home) and then a 1-point loss to top #15 ranked Iowa State.
• We'd be on a 7 game winning streak to finish the year.
• Penn State would be losers of 2 of their last 6 games including against a team we beat.
• Ohio State beating Penn State convincingly in Happy Valley on Nov. 2 wouldn't hurt, but I don't think it's necessary for us to get the nod over Penn State in this scenario.

 

[OutbackBowl2017]

Do you have any stock tips?

 

[markfromj]

As posters, we just need to take it one game at a time.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

L O L. That was a heck of a lot of work for pretty much nothing.

Iowa’s not making the CFP unless they win the big 10, and with Ohio State losing there’s essentially no realistic scenario that puts Iowa in the BTCG even if they win out.

The last CFP spot will be a competition among a fourth Big Ten team, a second big 12 team, a third ACC team and Notre Dame. Iowa hasn’t beaten an elite team in seven years, and has been a no-show in their most recent 4 such games. They will get absolutely no benefit of the doubt.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

If the flock of overrated SEC teams (Bama, Tenn, LSU, Mizzou, Ole Miss) keep beating each other, it opens the door a SLIVER for Indiana (yes, Indiana) to get in. However, it’s looking more like the ACC could get 2 in.

Bama losing to Vandy, Ole Miss losing to Kentucky, LSU losing to USC, and Tenn losing to Arkansas significantly downgrades those teams chances of reaching 10-2. All of those teams had assumed losses on the schedule that they could endure. Those losses I listed were NOT among them.

If ISU does the unthinkable (wins 11 or more and the Big XII), then Iowa suddenly looks like one of the best 2-loss teams, and the OSU game was early enough in the season that it would look like Iowa is peaking at the right time.

All that to say, it is a razor thin chance of happening.

 

[LukaDuka]

Iowa State is only making the playoffs if they win the Big 12 championship game. I don't think they're in otherwise.

#1 - We need to win out.
#2 - We need Ohio State to win out.
#3 - We need Oregon to play against Ohio State in B1G Championship
#4 - We need to Penn State to lose to Ohio State at home as well as either at Wisconsin or at Minnesota (two teams we would have beaten).

#5 - We need Iowa State to be undefeated heading into the Big 12 championship against a top 20 ranked BYU or Kansas State and they lose in Big 12 championship. The playoff committee will likely drop Iowa State out of the top 12 and below the Big 12 champion, but they'll still be ranked like in top 15. I don't think playoffs will let two teams from Iowa in the playoffs so it's best that Kansas State or BYU wins the Big 12 leaving a 1-loss Iowa State on the outside looking in.

#6 - We need Nebraska to be ranked when we play them to end the year.

If all above holds true, I see our playoff ranking being the following (keep in mind Ohio State and Iowa State keep winning):
(7-2) #18 after Nov. 2 win against Wisconsin
(8-2) #17 after Nov. 8 win @ UCLA
(9-2) #15 after Nov. 23 win @ Maryland
(10-2) #12 after Nov. 29 win against a ranked Nebraska

Playoffs (4 SEC, 3 or 4 B1G, 2 ACC, 1 or 2 Big 12, 1 Mountain West)
Texas
Ohio State
Oregon
Alabama
Georgia
ACC Champ
Miami/Clemson
LSU/Tennessee
Big 12 Champ (Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State)
Boise State
Iowa/Penn State
Iowa/Penn State/Big 12

Iowa would have an extremely strong case in this scenario to be the 3rd B1G team over Penn State.

• Our only losses would be against likely #2 or #3 Ohio State and it was @ Ohio State (where Penn State would have lost at home) and then a 1-point loss to top #15 ranked Iowa State.
• We'd be on a 7 game winning streak to finish the year.
• Penn State would be losers of 2 of their last 6 games including against a team we beat.
• Ohio State beating Penn State convincingly in Happy Valley on Nov. 2 wouldn't hurt, but I don't think it's necessary for us to get the nod over Penn State in this scenario.

IF Iowa St plays in the Big 12 & loses or even if they don't & have only one loss, it would be difficult to pick Iowa over ISU given they beat Iowa at Kinnick. I think we need ISU to lose 2 games. But we can dream & dream big!

 

[LukaDuka]

Do you have any stock tips?

Not a financial adviser, but Yield Max monthly dividend etf's placed in a Roth IRA have been very good to me. Buy, hold, accumulate & buy the dips!

 

[Underscore2]

Oregon has proven its head scratch loss ability in the past, I would not be surprised to see them end up with 2 losses.

Better way to go imo wb Ohio State getting another loss along the way, and Penn State w/no losses.

The Indiana is a slight poser so they wb out soon, but I never take them seriously so, biased idk if they are any good.

I know at this point the top 3 seem like the world beaters, but in time I could see Penn State no/conf loss and an Iowa 1 conf loss, and the Nebby game finally means something this year.

 

[jonesy5960]

L O L. That was a heck of a lot of work for pretty much nothing.

Iowa’s not making the CFP unless they win the big 10, and with Ohio State losing there’s essentially no realistic scenario that puts Iowa in the BTCG even if they win out.

The last CFP spot will be a competition among a fourth Big Ten team, a second big 12 team, a third ACC team and Notre Dame. Iowa hasn’t beaten an elite team in seven years, and has been a no-show in their most recent 4 such games. They will get absolutely no benefit of the doubt.

Yeah. You don't know what's going to happen to everyone else in the country so you can’t really say never. A much easier analysis suggests that if ISU, OSU, and Iowa win out, then 10-2 Iowa with their only 2 losses to likely top 4 ISU and OSU probably has a shot. Outside of anything else then probably not.

 

[Hawk68]

Folks, Iowa is not a CFP caliber team. They are better this year with an offense that is finally showing signs of life. They just do not have the quality of players to compete at the "semi-pro" level. We are on par with WI and Nebby and I sincerely hope they beat both of them and go to the best bowl game that is available. Unless college FB somehow establishes an equitable "pay cap," we will continue to be a step below CFP consideration.