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Iowa recruiting: the challenge

DanHawkPella

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Jul 24, 2001
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Posted this deep in a thread in the Lounge, but wanted to share here since we've had a few threads on the profile of our recruits - especially by race. Ultimately, the Final 4 teams are predominantly black because 85-90% of the Top 150 recruits in each class are black. It's like saying "Final 4 teams appear to be made up of the best players". One could argue that the only reason race should even be noteworthy is if Final 4 teams WEREN'T predominantly black.

I looked at Wisconsin's 4 and 5 star basketball recruits, and they almost entirely have come from Wisconsin or Minnesota. Their roster is usually pretty white and it hasn't hurt them either on or off the court. From a few years ago - a Final 4 team:

6233912.jpeg


Their system may help deflect a bit of their lack of athleticism, however, whereas Fran does have a lot more tempo in his scheme. But it does show that using general stats (most successful teams have x% black athletes) isn't as accurate as using individual skill assessment - and fit to a scheme - to predict performance. You can succeed with a "whiter" lineup, but you still need talent and that talent has to fit your scheme extremely well.

Fran generally does a good job finding pieces that are under-recruited and fit his scheme. I believe that there are 4 main reasons why our roster may currently skew a bit toward's Wisconsin's in terms of (lack of) diversity:

1. Regional demographics - not just Iowa, but surrounding states

2. Urban politics & Ethics - within regional urban areas like Chicago, it's hard to break into the AAU network, and especially so while not cheating

3. Targeted skill sets - the attributes Fran prioritizes for his schemes (ball skills) perhaps weight elite athleticism slightly lower than some others. Maybe his offensive focus (shooting, passing) tends to under-weight the defensive attributes (quickness, jumping) with the exception of the value he places on LENGTH, perhaps thinking it offsets some of the others. He is color blind when recruiting, but his skill priorities probably make him more comfortable trading off athleticism slightly for skill (and length). In doing so he probably does create some value since 8 out of 10 other coaches don't use that approach, but it all assumes that his targeted skills come together on the court well. (I think they do, but we still may need at least 1 athletic difference maker). This INDIRECTLY may contribute to a slightly whiter lineup although the cause is skill priority, not race.

4. Lack of success - we don't have to leave the state if we want Top 150-250 ranked players. Our state and the areas right across the border produce enough of them to keep a roster full. But to land players in the Top 100, we often need to leave the state, and it is VERY hard to pull a kid into Iowa when we haven't had a Sweet 16 run in quite awhile. It's a bit chicken or the egg - need talent to win, need to win to attract talent. Wisconsin has had success in Minnesota, and so I think it's important that Fran keep making efforts up there and he has offered quite a few from their better AAU programs. Just keep working it.

Take a look at the RIVALS 150 for 2019:
https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/

My visual audit gives these results:

Top 1-50: 5 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (Nico Mannion at 6'3", McDonalds All American - Arizona)

Top 51-100: 8 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (Patrick McCaffrey at 6'8" listed here)

Top 101-150: 5 whites, only 1 under 6'6" (3 of them ranked between 145-150)

TOP 150 TOTAL: 18 whites, 3 under 6'6"

If you look at where they are from, and what their other offers are, what compelling reason would they have to jump a couple of states over and play for Iowa.....especially if Iowa doesn't cheat? If you want an athletic kid under 6'6", it's TOUGH unless they grew up in-state.

What strengths does Iowa have to offer? From the other Big 10 coaches point of view, only easy entry:

Conference-Chain-Big-Ten.jpg


Luckily, I do think Fran has a few things to offer that aren't listed:
  • Fun, fast tempo offense where the coach gives you a fair amount of latitude to do your thing
  • You don't have to play defense all the time (I kid, I kid!)
  • A great fan base who will adore you if you win
  • A great campus
  • An offense where bigs get opportunities to face up from 3 and/or post up on the block
  • A coach who has your back and whose program has very few defections or off the court issues
Unfortunately, we're going to have to find a way to the Sweet 16 with the type of rosters we have currently. Once we get there, it may shake loose some of the Top 100 kids from out of state. I think Fran's rosters are capable of that, as we saw last year, but it takes some luck and Jason's injury doesn't help any. The only other option is to hire a "recruiter" coach like Raveling was, but it comes with different risks.

Our program isn't elite enough that we won't have tradeoffs with any coach we hire. I'm comfortable with Fran currently even given a few weaknesses, because he's all in with Iowa, he's very open, he runs a clean program, and he plays a fun style of basketball. He's pretty good at finding gems on the recruiting trail - we just need to have some post season success to enable him to get 1 or 2 Top 50 recruits from out of state every several years.

Just one first round NBA level player to go with our current group of very good players would be enough....and that's generally Wisconsin's recipe also. They just have a few more 4 and 5 stars in state, and have been able to get a few more from Minnesota.
 
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Honestly, I'm not sure what the point of this post is. You start by acknowledging there is a large gap between white and black players in the Top 100, then reference one team (Wisconsin) as incontrovertible proof it doesn't matter. If citing one statistical anomaly (racial makeup) is your idea of debunking a theory, you need to go back to the drawing board.

Also, referencing "regional demographics" is a ridiculous point too. Last I checked, the surrounding area of Ames isn't flourishing with racial diversity. I would add Kansas doesn't strike me as a state too particularly diverse, yet K-State and KU don't seem to have issue with getting players with a little melanin.

Iowa is the whitest team in the P5. Period. Furthermore, Fran has signed tons of white players from out of state. So, again, the whole theory of being hamstringed by region is not a valid point.

It is what it is. Do I believe Fran and staff purposely target white players to fill the majority of the roster? I doubt it. Should they aim to recruit more black players? Well, if the goal is to attract more Top 100 recruits, then probably. You can beat the whole PC "race shouldn't matter" drum all you want. But when it comes to the ultra competitive business of recruiting, a lot of black teens are probably going to at the very least take pause about signing up to play for a P5 team that looks a lot like Hickory High.

Just saying.
 
Recruiting players, at least at Iowa, is not like buying a car. You don't get to simply pick the size, HP, utility .... or the color. You go find good players that can help the team and have an interest in Iowa - then you work hard to get them here - because hopefully someone else wants them as well.
 
Honestly, I'm not sure what the point of this post is. You start by acknowledging there is a large gap between white and black players in the Top 100, then reference one team (Wisconsin) as incontrovertible proof it doesn't matter. If citing one statistical anomaly (racial makeup) is your idea of debunking a theory, you need to go back to the drawing board.

Also, referencing "regional demographics" is a ridiculous point too. Last I checked, the surrounding area of Ames isn't flourishing with racial diversity. I would add Kansas doesn't strike me as a state too particularly diverse, yet K-State and KU don't seem to have issue with getting players with a little melanin.

Iowa is the whitest team in the P5. Period. Furthermore, Fran has signed tons of white players from out of state. So, again, the whole theory of being hamstringed by region is not a valid point.

It is what it is. Do I believe Fran and staff purposely target white players to fill the majority of the roster? I doubt it. Should they aim to recruit more black players? Well, if the goal is to attract more Top 100 recruits, then probably. You can beat the whole PC "race shouldn't matter" drum all you want. But when it comes to the ultra competitive business of recruiting, a lot of black teens are probably going to at the very least take pause about signing up to play for a P5 team that looks a lot like Hickory High.

Just saying.

I gave 4 reasons for the diversity issue, not just one. Clearly if the state of Iowa looked like Georgia then our roster would look different - I don't think you'd argue that. It is true, however, that NONE of the 4 issues PROHIBIT us from having a roster that looks like an ACC roster (like ISU's does), but all 4 of them create a headwind.

Would people feel better if Fran had a roster full of black athletes in the 200-300 ranked range? Because that's ridiculously easy to do. But clearly the issue isn't getting middling ranked athletes on the roster, its getting HIGHLY ranked (Top 120) on the roster. And most of those are out of state, and if they are within 300 miles of Iowa City then they are almost all urban as well.

I don't dispute that there are some models where it can be done - ISU's is one of them. Fran favors the clean, high school route over the transfer or potential baggage route. There are pros/cons to each. I'm just pointing out some of the challenges we face. We could change coaches and change models, but those come with risks too. I do think we should be more open to transfers and JUCOs without necessarily adopting ISU's entire philosophy.
 
Honestly, I'm not sure what the point of this post is. You start by acknowledging there is a large gap between white and black players in the Top 100, then reference one team (Wisconsin) as incontrovertible proof it doesn't matter. If citing one statistical anomaly (racial makeup) is your idea of debunking a theory, you need to go back to the drawing board.

Also, referencing "regional demographics" is a ridiculous point too. Last I checked, the surrounding area of Ames isn't flourishing with racial diversity. I would add Kansas doesn't strike me as a state too particularly diverse, yet K-State and KU don't seem to have issue with getting players with a little melanin.

Iowa is the whitest team in the P5. Period. Furthermore, Fran has signed tons of white players from out of state. So, again, the whole theory of being hamstringed by region is not a valid point.

It is what it is. Do I believe Fran and staff purposely target white players to fill the majority of the roster? I doubt it. Should they aim to recruit more black players? Well, if the goal is to attract more Top 100 recruits, then probably. You can beat the whole PC "race shouldn't matter" drum all you want. But when it comes to the ultra competitive business of recruiting, a lot of black teens are probably going to at the very least take pause about signing up to play for a P5 team that looks a lot like Hickory High.

Just saying.
I think that one of his main points is that it takes recruiting top 150 talent. Also, it is hard to recruit that talent if it is not in state or if we don't want a "clean program".
 
The college game has more white players than the pro game. In the college game you have to recruit, in the pro game, (which is more of a business proposition), you don't. I would like to think college coaches go after the best possible players to fit their scheme as opposed to going after players based on skin color. One of the greatest aspects of college athletics is players from different backgrounds, race and social status come together and work hard as a team to achieve team goals.
 
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Excellent OP Dan. I think we almost all agree that Fran needs to successfully land some top guards to make his system really work, but as you point out, the headwinds are strong, especially until we have more success. We should be thankful that we got JoeW, who is exception to the rule. We all also agree that Fran hasn't looked at transfers and JUCOs enough, and it seems like he finally is seeing the light (a few years late). Where is the next Ronnie Lester?:)
 
The college game has more white players than the pro game. In the college game you have to recruit, in the pro game, (which is more of a business proposition), you don't. I would like to think college coaches go after the best possible players to fit their scheme as opposed to going after players based on skin color. One of the greatest aspects of college athletics is players from different backgrounds, race and social status come together and work hard as a team to achieve team goals.

And that is why the College BB game is still growing, while the
NBA is going to be eclipsed by the NHL soon.
 
But the point is, race doesn't matter, the ability to play the game at a high level, does. The race thing that is being thrown around lately is completely ridiculous.
I also think the player's ability is what matters, not his color, but Dan's stat's on the number of top 100 white kids under 6'6" tell us that almost all of the top guards are black. Getting them to come to Iowa is a tall task for Fran, and that is where we have been for a while--one top guard, especially a PG, away from being a very dangerous team.
 
Guard play and point guards are essential in the college game. I’m all for filling the roster with best players you can, that fit your brand of basketball. Ideally you’d have a mixture of all types of players background and make up. A recruit is going to want to feel comfortable and at home in the program they choose. They’re going to want to be on a team with several people they can relate to beyond playing basketball. That’s just my opinion.
 
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But the point is, race doesn't matter, the ability to play the game at a high level, does. The race thing that is being thrown around lately is completely ridiculous.

Are you dense?

The conclusion would be you need to recruit African Americans if you want Top 100 /elite players.

The lone example of a predominantly white B-ball team (Wisconsin) is a case where
A) They had a lot smarter Coach in Bo Ryan than we have in Fran
B) They played at a slower pace to make up for lack of footspeed/athleticism
C) They still had star African American players, just at much lower levels than typcial Final-4 teams.
 
But the point is, race doesn't matter, the ability to play the game at a high level, does. The race thing that is being thrown around lately is completely ridiculous.
Pro Tip: Watch the NCAA Final Four nearly ever year, and the NBA. You'll learn.
 
I also think the player's ability is what matters, not his color, but Dan's stat's on the number of top 100 white kids under 6'6" tell us that almost all of the top guards are black. Getting them to come to Iowa is a tall task for Fran, and that is where we have been for a while--one top guard, especially a PG, away from being a very dangerous team.
"I also think the player's ability is what matters, not his color, but Dan's stat's on the number of top 100 white kids under 6'6" tell us that almost all of the top guards are black." So... which is it?
 
I see at least 2 posts in this thread referencing recruiting players to the style of play. If that's the case, then Fran's recruiting doesn't make a lot of sense.

If you want to push the pace, increase the number of possessions per game and emphasize offense over defense does it make sense to do that with a roster that's lacking in speed, quickness, lateral movement and leaping ability compared to most of its conference competition?
 
Fran is a good coach but is a terrible recruiter and doesn’t understand how teens work at all when it comes the recruiting process
 
We are going on year 10 of the McCaffery era and we are what we are. He can’t land the big fish in recruiting or he already would have done so. Granted, he got Cook but that’s it in terms of elite recruits. We will continue to be a very average program that makes the NCAA tourney once in awhile. I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with that but to expect more from this current regime is ridiculous. Our arena is also totally dead, which doesn’t help matters.
 
I would just like to see Iowa up the ante in regard to investing in the BB program, Last list I saw IIRC had Iowa in 11th place in the Big in regard to investing in the BB program, I’m a believer in you get what you pay for.

Most realistic post on this thread.

“You get what you pay for” is one of those iron laws of the universe.

Investment in Men’s basketball is not a priority at Iowa. If it was, we wouldn’t have a TWENTY YEAR sweet sixteen drought and FORTY YEAR conference title drought.

Now...it’s also true that with bad management you can dump obscene amounts of money into a program and still suck bad. See e.g., Illinois Basketball lolz. However, even with genius management, the reverse exception is almost never true — that you can do things on the cheap and still be consistently successful.

If Iowa wants better results, it has to invest more. Period.
 
Good post, Dan.
It crystallized our issues succinctly.
Iowa BB needs to find a way out of this recruiting Catch 22 in terms of out of state black guards. .hopefully JoeT breaks the ice.
Fran has to land top 150 guards.. ..like Carton. Usually they do not come from Iowa.
 
Are you dense?
A) They had a lot smarter Coach in Bo Ryan than we have in Fran (Opinion and not a particularly good one)
B) They played at a slower pace to make up for lack of footspeed/athleticism (Highly criticized, even around Wisky, rather see a more up tempo, for my money)
C) They still had star African American players, just at much lower levels than typcial Final-4 teams. (Just like the Hawks)

We could be and should be better under Fran. He needs to get a better quality of guard if we want to compete for BIG titles, no doubt, but I'm not giving up on Fran just yet. You, of course, can and probably have.
 
"I also think the player's ability is what matters, not his color, but Dan's stat's on the number of top 100 white kids under 6'6" tell us that almost all of the top guards are black." So... which is it?
This isn't either/or and it shouldn't be that hard to understand. Go read Dan's OP carefully, and you should have a better understanding of Iowa BB recruiting. If you are looking at an individual player, it doesn't matter what color he is. It is his ability to play that matters. But, the odds of the very best players being white are low, so if you aren't getting any black players, you probably aren't successfully recruiting the very best players. JoeW is an exception to the rule. Fran faces an uphill battle, which is very clear in the chart in the OP. Except for Iowa having the easiest admission requirements in the B1G, Iowa is near the bottom in other factors impacting recruitment. As Dan points out, if Iowa can have a little more success on the court, which will probably require that a couple of recruits overachieve (e.g., CJ and JoeT), then it could improve our chances at landing more of the very best players. The competition is stiff, especially if you aren't bending the rules.
 
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Good job Mr Obvious. Black, white or indifferent, college coaches are all recruiting the same pool of players. I tend to think you might be unhappy with whoever Fran recruits.

In regards to final four teams, one characteristic you arent mentioning is that they typically arent the 1 and done teams. They are teams that start guys that are 20-23 years old.


Posted this deep in a thread in the Lounge, but wanted to share here since we've had a few threads on the profile of our recruits - especially by race. Ultimately, the Final 4 teams are predominantly black because 85-90% of the Top 150 recruits in each class are black. It's like saying "Final 4 teams appear to be made up of the best players". One could argue that the only reason race should even be noteworthy is if Final 4 teams WEREN'T predominantly black.
 
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This coming years team would have been very good had everyone stayed, Three players left, one may may have to take a medical redshirt. I'm sure alot of non blue bloods have recruiting challenges. That will not be the problem this year. This year it will be the players who left and the possibllity of JBo not playing.
 
Good job Mr Obvious. Black, white or indifferent, college coaches are all recruiting the same pool of players. I tend to think you might be unhappy with whoever Fran recruits.

In regards to final four teams, one characteristic you arent mentioning is that they typically arent the 1 and done teams. They are teams that start guys that are 20-23 years old.

This isn't true for the few one and done teams that recruit most of the very best players (Duke, KY, and to some degree Kansas and NC). I would agree the final four teams other than those NBA-prep schools are usually made up of at least some upperclassmen.
 
If Iowa State could get players over Iowa they would have more white players. But they don’t, so they are forced to recruit out of state where stats say there’s a higher percentage of black kids.

Fran typically (not always) has his choice of the best in-state kids, and they tend to be white because iowa is 97% white. If Fran thinks a kid can help he will offer him.
 
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Recruiting has never been easy at Iowa. The south and southwest are pretty closed to us, bad weather in addition to all the other problems.

The lack of greater success also limits the players coming to Iowa. If you want a serious chance to win the Big Ten or go deep in the tournament you're probably not looking at Iowa. That will probably never change.

Even at our very best recruiting, when we actually put the better players on the floor, we still drop 3-5 conference games on entirely the officiating-some from an unconscious bias and some from outright corruption. College BBall has become a very large industry, there are tens, possibly hundreds of millions of dollars invested in it and Iowa is simply not a very lucrative part of the portfolio. Unless something very drastic and unforeseen happens, like an actual gambling or game fixing scandal, those officiating problems are never going away.

We have no media cache. Play in a tiny media market. All of our games aren't televised. Is our social media profile busier than anyone's in the Big Ten? You think the Big Ten conference and the NCAA would make more or less money from Iowa jumping, let's say Indiana, Maryland or Ohio State in the generally static pecking order?

Its not a cheap air flight for family travel. U of Iowa and Johnson County have higher standards of citizenship than many, probably most, of the other schools pursuing those same players. We have far less academic flexibility than many, probably most of the other schools that are pursuing those same players. Anyone think a kid that's a great ball player but attended some inner city school that never even attempted to educate him would find the academic requirements and flexibility at Iowa an incentive or disincentive? I think Isaiah Moss came out of such a place and must have had a pretty good work ethic and learning curve because he got and remained eligible and graduated after four years. What ever one thinks of Isaiah as a player most kids in a similar situation probably lack that work ethic and learning curve? Not a race thing, college aged kids just aren't the most industrious or productive demographic.

From a stars and grading standpoint, we're about back to where Alford was circa 2001-2005. Even if not quite as good from a profile perspective we're certainly getting better results than the Alford years even if Alford had better players. So the trajectory, declining precipitously most seaons between Dr. Davis' last and F McC's first has been reversed and now has a generally upward trajectory.

Recruiting is like politics. If I learned anything in politics it was recognizing the art of the possible. Iowa chasing most of the guards in the top 100 players would be like me trying to date Michelle Pfeiffer 35 years ago. I could devote 24/7/365 to the project but it simply never is going to happen and any time spent on it would have been wasted effort. Reality sometimes requires one to aim just a little lower.
 
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Take a look at UNC's roster when in the final 4. Sure they have 1 and done's, but they still have plenty of upperclassman. Virginia? Texas Tech?

How about the B10 schools when they play in the Final 4.....they aren't doing it with 1st year players. Heck, even Kansas is at its best when they have a 4th year player leading the way.

This isn't true for the few one and done teams that recruit most of the very best players (Duke, KY, and to some degree Kansas and NC). I would agree the final four teams other than those NBA-prep schools are usually made up of at least some upperclassmen.
 
I see at least 2 posts in this thread referencing recruiting players to the style of play. If that's the case, then Fran's recruiting doesn't make a lot of sense.

If you want to push the pace, increase the number of possessions per game and emphasize offense over defense does it make sense to do that with a roster that's lacking in speed, quickness, lateral movement and leaping ability compared to most of its conference competition?

What is not making a lot of sense? Iowa has plenty of players that fit their system: White ( to a T), Olaseni, Uthoff, Wieskamp, Clemmons, Basabe, Jok, Cook, Gesell, Uhl, Wagner, Cartwright and Kriener. Woodbury and Garza may not be ideal for the system, but Iowa is not passing on either of them. Nunge is yet to be seen with being in shape he should be fine. Pemsl I don’t think is ideal for the system and it doesn’t help that the two shooters recruited, couldn’t shoot well in a game situation. Fran has tried for elite quick PGs, but missed on a couple. No fan at this point, would trade Bohannon.

Iowa seems to recruit well enough to compete in the B1G. Only one team has completely dominated Iowa in the last six years and that’s MSU (2-7). A few teams have had Iowa’s number Wisconsin (3-6) and IU (4-7). Iowa has competed fairly well against the rest of the B1G:

Northwestern (8-2)
Purdue (4-5)
Nebraska (6-4)
Minnesota (4-5)
OSU (4-5)
Michigan (5-5)
Illinois (7-3)
PSU (6-4)
Rutgers (5-2)
Maryland (3-3)

I’d say these numbers are historically on pace for an Iowa coach to above average with some schools.
 
Take a look at UNC's roster when in the final 4. Sure they have 1 and done's, but they still have plenty of upperclassman. Virginia? Texas Tech?

How about the B10 schools when they play in the Final 4.....they aren't doing it with 1st year players. Heck, even Kansas is at its best when they have a 4th year player leading the way.
So, what did I say that was incorrect. Your original post suggested that teams with almost all upperclassmen are usually the teams in the final four. That just isn't true, especially when Duke and KY are frequently there with mostly first and second year players. Having one or two upperclassmen is clearly helpful, but there is seldom more than one team out of four that is mostly upperclassmen. Texas Tech was the exception, and their best player was a soph I think. Wisconsin was another exception...
 
Going 5-5 against michigan during a really dominant era of michigan basketball. This is probably one of Fran's biggest accomplishments.

That includes at least two L’s in the BTT.

There’s absolutely room for improvement, no one is arguing that. IMO, the problem was not having a good plan B (or C) with some of the PG misses. That’s what has hurt Iowa the most. Raptor hit the nail on the head too. You get what you pay for. Invest money in the Iowa b-ball program. Get the fans and especially the students back and bring an exciting brand of basketball. I love Iowa football, but Iowa basketball is so much better when they’re winning.
 
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Going 5-5 against michigan during a really dominant era of michigan basketball. This is probably one of Fran's biggest accomplishments.


Sad AF.

Guys calculating records against B1G opponents for “the last six years”? Lolz. Why six years? Fran has coached here for ten.

Again, sad AF.
 
Sad AF.

Guys calculating records against B1G opponents for “the last six years”? Lolz. Why six years? Fran has coached here for ten.

Again, sad AF.

The thread is in reference to Fran’s recruiting is it not? You can put Lickliter’s recruits in there too and calculate the numbers. No one is stopping you.

Fran has coached here nine years, not ten. Then again, accuracy isn’t really your thing now is it?
 
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