My thoughts on Friday night...
125 - #1 Gilman DEC #3 Suriano - IOWA 3-0
I'd love to see Gilman wear down the true freshman and break him in the 3rd for a major, but Gilman just squeaked out the major against Piccininni and Suriano is a lot tougher. Suriano looks to me like Megaludis 2.0 in the way he wrestles so defensively against upper-level competition. I expect Suriano to keep the score close enough to have Hawk fans sweating late in the match, but Gilman will get to him and win by a few points...
133 - #3 Clark MDEC #13 Cortez/Carpenter - IOWA 7-0
Not sure who we see here for PSU? I'm thinking/hoping Clark comes out on fire after his loss to Brock and manhandles whoever PSU sends out. I do think Clark is a major decision better than Cortez, and if they send out Carpenter hopefully we see him counting lights...
141 - #12 Gulibon DEC #18 Carton - IOWA 7-3
I would love, love, love to see Carton beat Gulibon. I'm tempted to pick it happening, too. I think Carton is capable of winning this match, especially in Carver. Carton is having a better season than Gulibon. Carton wrestles with more fire than Gulibon. Carton is stronger than Gulibon. But in the end, my gut tells me Gulibon beats him. Carton gets sloppy at times and leaves himself open, and Gulibon excels at capitalizing on his opponent's mistakes. I see this as a match that will be very close and have Carver rockin' in the 3rd period willing Carton on to victory, only to see Gulibon squeak out the win...
**WARNING - It gets ugly from here...
149 - #1 Retherford MDEC #3 Sorenson - TIED 7-7
If the 141 match takes the wind out of Hawk Nation's sails, 149 is where those sails start to shred. Last time they met (NCAA finals) Retherford was a major decision better than Sorenson. I've seen nothing from Sorenson to indicate that he's improved from that...
157 - #1 Nolf DEC #2 Kemerer - PSU 10-7
This is the match of the night in my mind. I don't think Kemerer beats Nolf, but I'm anxious to see how he stacks up to him. I think Nolf wins comfortably, but Kemerer holds him to his first regular decision of the year...
165 - #4 Joseph DEC Gunther - PSU 13-7
Hopefully Gunther is good to go Friday night. If not, expect the Hawks to give up more bonus. I've been very happy with Gunther's performance so far this year. His recent win over Hughes makes me think he's trending in the right direction. Still, since his early season hiccup against Subjeck, Joseph has been very impressive. I'm tempted to give him the major here, but I think Gunther battles him tough...
174 - #14 Morelli DEC #13 Meyer - PSU 16-7
Two guys who are right next to each other in the rankings, but trending in completely opposite directions. Morelli's lone loss on the season is to a teammate, but other than that he's been very solid. Meyer has lost 4 out of his last 6, with 3 of those losses coming from guys ranked lower than him at the time. Meyer SHOULD win this match, but he has just been pretty unimpressive this year, and by this point in the dual I think PSU has all the momentum going for them and Meyer just can't stop the bleeding...
184 - #2 Nickal DEC #5 Brooks - PSU 19-7
This match scares me a little, just because Nickal is so dangerous. Brooks has been wrestling great since his loss to Jackson, but I still don't think he can beat Nickal. Nickal should win fairly comfortably (a la Nickal's match with Dudley). Brooks can keep this match close, but we all know how sloppy he can be, and if he gets sloppy against Nickal then he might find himself counting lights (a la Nickal's match with Gravina)...
197 - #10 McCutcheon DEC Wilcke - PSU 22-7
Two undersized 197's going at it. It should be pretty close, just because all of McCutcheon's matches are pretty close, but he should win without much trouble...
HWT - #5 Nevills DEC #8 Stoll - PSU 25-7
I love me some Sam Stoll, but his critics are right, pushing IS NOT offense. If Stoll ever wants to crack the upper echelon of this weight class, he's got to do more than push guys around the mat. Nevills seems to have learned this, and has been showing some pretty good offense this year. I see a match very similar to Stoll's match against Schafer, with a result much the same...
**If the dual is out of reach by the HWT match (which I think it will be), then I wouldn't be surprised to see Holloway go here instead, given that Stoll looked to maybe have tweaked his knee against OSU.
So all together, I see a pretty ugly night for the Hawks. I could see the possibility of the Hawks winning at 141, 174, and HW, but they would have to win ALL the swing matches and find some bonus along the way to pull it off. I just don't see it happening. Perhaps I've still got such a sour taste in my mouth from the Oklahoma State embarrassment that I'm being overly skeptical of our chances, but honestly this is pretty much how I felt about our chances before that dual happened.
Point of interest - When was the last time the Hawkeyes lost 2 consecutive duals?
125 - #1 Gilman DEC #3 Suriano - IOWA 3-0
I'd love to see Gilman wear down the true freshman and break him in the 3rd for a major, but Gilman just squeaked out the major against Piccininni and Suriano is a lot tougher. Suriano looks to me like Megaludis 2.0 in the way he wrestles so defensively against upper-level competition. I expect Suriano to keep the score close enough to have Hawk fans sweating late in the match, but Gilman will get to him and win by a few points...
133 - #3 Clark MDEC #13 Cortez/Carpenter - IOWA 7-0
Not sure who we see here for PSU? I'm thinking/hoping Clark comes out on fire after his loss to Brock and manhandles whoever PSU sends out. I do think Clark is a major decision better than Cortez, and if they send out Carpenter hopefully we see him counting lights...
141 - #12 Gulibon DEC #18 Carton - IOWA 7-3
I would love, love, love to see Carton beat Gulibon. I'm tempted to pick it happening, too. I think Carton is capable of winning this match, especially in Carver. Carton is having a better season than Gulibon. Carton wrestles with more fire than Gulibon. Carton is stronger than Gulibon. But in the end, my gut tells me Gulibon beats him. Carton gets sloppy at times and leaves himself open, and Gulibon excels at capitalizing on his opponent's mistakes. I see this as a match that will be very close and have Carver rockin' in the 3rd period willing Carton on to victory, only to see Gulibon squeak out the win...
**WARNING - It gets ugly from here...
149 - #1 Retherford MDEC #3 Sorenson - TIED 7-7
If the 141 match takes the wind out of Hawk Nation's sails, 149 is where those sails start to shred. Last time they met (NCAA finals) Retherford was a major decision better than Sorenson. I've seen nothing from Sorenson to indicate that he's improved from that...
157 - #1 Nolf DEC #2 Kemerer - PSU 10-7
This is the match of the night in my mind. I don't think Kemerer beats Nolf, but I'm anxious to see how he stacks up to him. I think Nolf wins comfortably, but Kemerer holds him to his first regular decision of the year...
165 - #4 Joseph DEC Gunther - PSU 13-7
Hopefully Gunther is good to go Friday night. If not, expect the Hawks to give up more bonus. I've been very happy with Gunther's performance so far this year. His recent win over Hughes makes me think he's trending in the right direction. Still, since his early season hiccup against Subjeck, Joseph has been very impressive. I'm tempted to give him the major here, but I think Gunther battles him tough...
174 - #14 Morelli DEC #13 Meyer - PSU 16-7
Two guys who are right next to each other in the rankings, but trending in completely opposite directions. Morelli's lone loss on the season is to a teammate, but other than that he's been very solid. Meyer has lost 4 out of his last 6, with 3 of those losses coming from guys ranked lower than him at the time. Meyer SHOULD win this match, but he has just been pretty unimpressive this year, and by this point in the dual I think PSU has all the momentum going for them and Meyer just can't stop the bleeding...
184 - #2 Nickal DEC #5 Brooks - PSU 19-7
This match scares me a little, just because Nickal is so dangerous. Brooks has been wrestling great since his loss to Jackson, but I still don't think he can beat Nickal. Nickal should win fairly comfortably (a la Nickal's match with Dudley). Brooks can keep this match close, but we all know how sloppy he can be, and if he gets sloppy against Nickal then he might find himself counting lights (a la Nickal's match with Gravina)...
197 - #10 McCutcheon DEC Wilcke - PSU 22-7
Two undersized 197's going at it. It should be pretty close, just because all of McCutcheon's matches are pretty close, but he should win without much trouble...
HWT - #5 Nevills DEC #8 Stoll - PSU 25-7
I love me some Sam Stoll, but his critics are right, pushing IS NOT offense. If Stoll ever wants to crack the upper echelon of this weight class, he's got to do more than push guys around the mat. Nevills seems to have learned this, and has been showing some pretty good offense this year. I see a match very similar to Stoll's match against Schafer, with a result much the same...
**If the dual is out of reach by the HWT match (which I think it will be), then I wouldn't be surprised to see Holloway go here instead, given that Stoll looked to maybe have tweaked his knee against OSU.
So all together, I see a pretty ugly night for the Hawks. I could see the possibility of the Hawks winning at 141, 174, and HW, but they would have to win ALL the swing matches and find some bonus along the way to pull it off. I just don't see it happening. Perhaps I've still got such a sour taste in my mouth from the Oklahoma State embarrassment that I'm being overly skeptical of our chances, but honestly this is pretty much how I felt about our chances before that dual happened.
Point of interest - When was the last time the Hawkeyes lost 2 consecutive duals?
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