2021 is in the books. By all accounts, it was a highly successful year for Hawkeye sports. As of this summer, Iowa climbed as high as 13th in the Director's Cup, which rates athletics programs across the board, thanks in part to conference championships in soccer, gymnastics, wrestling, field hockey and track, and above average football and basketball teams.
So as we turn the page to 2022, Iowa's most objective sports prognosticator, IowaLaw, has a few predictions for the year ahead:
QB Play Will Regress - Having a 3rd year starter returning at QB is a huge advantage, right? Usually. At Iowa, the well known "QB Regression" theory has already been argued ad nauseum. Whether you subscribe to it or not, statistically Petras regressed pretty badly. Kirk anointed him permanent starter in 2020. Spencer struggled and ranked 89th nationally in QB efficiency. He threw 9 tds and 5 ints and couldn't make plays with his feet. Pro football focus tabbed Petras the lowest rated returning starter in college football in 2021. Ferentz decided to stick with him rather than going to the portal. As a result, Spencer finished his second year as starter ranking 98th in QB efficiency. He threw 10 tds and 9 interceptions and again couldn't make plays with his feet. A non-Iowa fan would naturally assume 2022 will require an "open QB competition," right? That would require two things: (i) genuinely taking a look at one of the dozens of QBs in the portal; and (ii) giving real reps to underclassmen. Neither will happen. Barring injury, Petras is Iowa's starter in 2022.
The McCaffery Boys Will Continue Playing Over More Talented Teammates - There's nothing more frustrating to Hawk fans than watching Fran sit guys like Joe Toussaint (52% from the field and 40% from 3, and can defend) late in close games while playing Connor McCaffery (23% from the field and 21% from 3, and the slowest guy on the team) in clutch minutes. What's worse is that his brother Patrick leads the nation in 3 categories: (i) out of control, off-balanced layups attempted; (ii) out of control, off-balanced layups missed; and (iii) points given up on defense after attempting an out of control, off-balanced layup. He still plays ahead of Kris Murray each night, including following Murray's 29 point performance. Murray, Perkins, & Ulis will continue to have limited minutes regardless of their play.
Penn State Will Take Back Wrestling Crown - Hawkeye wrestling has seen a renaissance over the past two years, reclaiming wrestling's #1 ranking and winning national titles. They've done so by recruiting studs from Pennsylvania and transfers and by taking advantage of lax redshirt rules to have an entire roster filled with 5th and 6th year guys. Out-of-state recruiting has stalled and once the 6th year superstars exit, look for Penn State, with its wealth of in-state talent, to reclaim the top of the wrestling world for years to come.
Joey Labas Will Not Throw a Pass at Iowa - Despite the media's recent push to prop up Labas as cause for optimism & to deflect from criticism of Iowa's offense, the fact remains that the guy was 4th string behind one of the worst QBs in the Ferentz era, and Ferentz openly mocked the 3rd string guy at the end of the season. It would be impossible for Labas to somehow pass up two "experienced starters" in 2022, regardless of his skill level. That's a given at Iowa. But looking ahead to 2023, assuming Alex Padilla waits around for a 5th year (apparently his preferred transfer destinations recommended that he stay put), Joey will still be left holding a clip board until 2024. In this day and age, no one sticks around that long if they think they can play elsewhere. Bring on the next scout team legend.
Iowa Women's Basketball Will Remain Boring - It's politically correct to express fake interest in women's basketball now that Iowa has a nationally ranked program with a women's superstar. It's expected to nod your head when the adoring local media (and even some NBA player tweets) say "Caitlin Clark is a top NIL draw, and a transcendental player, regardless of gender." While I'm a firm believer that Clark can score a ton of points (she leads the nation at 26 points per game), I have to ask how many "fans" actually watch her play? I've seen parts of 2 or 3 recent games, and each time I was blown away by the number of bricks the best player in women's basketball puts up (Clark has taken 119 3s and made just 27 of them, which is a Connor McCaffery-esque 22%). Most of her points are scored from the free throw line, which doesn't make for exciting bball. In terms of attendance, 6,000 fans are attending Iowa women's games. I suppose that's good for women's basketball, but when you are talking NIL, isn't it all about advertising? Typically the more visibility leads to higher marketability and people aren't watching these games.
Brian Ferentz Will Receive a Substantial Raise - It's no secret that Iowa ranked 123rd this year in total offense and that teams with far better offenses fired their offensive coordinators after the season. I'm not going to pile on by saying the guy should be fired. But what most won't hear about is that Kirk will give him an automatic pay raise in the offseason exceeding the average household income in the state of Iowa...for his performance. Those who say life's not fair don't coach for their dad.
So as we turn the page to 2022, Iowa's most objective sports prognosticator, IowaLaw, has a few predictions for the year ahead:
QB Play Will Regress - Having a 3rd year starter returning at QB is a huge advantage, right? Usually. At Iowa, the well known "QB Regression" theory has already been argued ad nauseum. Whether you subscribe to it or not, statistically Petras regressed pretty badly. Kirk anointed him permanent starter in 2020. Spencer struggled and ranked 89th nationally in QB efficiency. He threw 9 tds and 5 ints and couldn't make plays with his feet. Pro football focus tabbed Petras the lowest rated returning starter in college football in 2021. Ferentz decided to stick with him rather than going to the portal. As a result, Spencer finished his second year as starter ranking 98th in QB efficiency. He threw 10 tds and 9 interceptions and again couldn't make plays with his feet. A non-Iowa fan would naturally assume 2022 will require an "open QB competition," right? That would require two things: (i) genuinely taking a look at one of the dozens of QBs in the portal; and (ii) giving real reps to underclassmen. Neither will happen. Barring injury, Petras is Iowa's starter in 2022.
The McCaffery Boys Will Continue Playing Over More Talented Teammates - There's nothing more frustrating to Hawk fans than watching Fran sit guys like Joe Toussaint (52% from the field and 40% from 3, and can defend) late in close games while playing Connor McCaffery (23% from the field and 21% from 3, and the slowest guy on the team) in clutch minutes. What's worse is that his brother Patrick leads the nation in 3 categories: (i) out of control, off-balanced layups attempted; (ii) out of control, off-balanced layups missed; and (iii) points given up on defense after attempting an out of control, off-balanced layup. He still plays ahead of Kris Murray each night, including following Murray's 29 point performance. Murray, Perkins, & Ulis will continue to have limited minutes regardless of their play.
Penn State Will Take Back Wrestling Crown - Hawkeye wrestling has seen a renaissance over the past two years, reclaiming wrestling's #1 ranking and winning national titles. They've done so by recruiting studs from Pennsylvania and transfers and by taking advantage of lax redshirt rules to have an entire roster filled with 5th and 6th year guys. Out-of-state recruiting has stalled and once the 6th year superstars exit, look for Penn State, with its wealth of in-state talent, to reclaim the top of the wrestling world for years to come.
Joey Labas Will Not Throw a Pass at Iowa - Despite the media's recent push to prop up Labas as cause for optimism & to deflect from criticism of Iowa's offense, the fact remains that the guy was 4th string behind one of the worst QBs in the Ferentz era, and Ferentz openly mocked the 3rd string guy at the end of the season. It would be impossible for Labas to somehow pass up two "experienced starters" in 2022, regardless of his skill level. That's a given at Iowa. But looking ahead to 2023, assuming Alex Padilla waits around for a 5th year (apparently his preferred transfer destinations recommended that he stay put), Joey will still be left holding a clip board until 2024. In this day and age, no one sticks around that long if they think they can play elsewhere. Bring on the next scout team legend.
Iowa Women's Basketball Will Remain Boring - It's politically correct to express fake interest in women's basketball now that Iowa has a nationally ranked program with a women's superstar. It's expected to nod your head when the adoring local media (and even some NBA player tweets) say "Caitlin Clark is a top NIL draw, and a transcendental player, regardless of gender." While I'm a firm believer that Clark can score a ton of points (she leads the nation at 26 points per game), I have to ask how many "fans" actually watch her play? I've seen parts of 2 or 3 recent games, and each time I was blown away by the number of bricks the best player in women's basketball puts up (Clark has taken 119 3s and made just 27 of them, which is a Connor McCaffery-esque 22%). Most of her points are scored from the free throw line, which doesn't make for exciting bball. In terms of attendance, 6,000 fans are attending Iowa women's games. I suppose that's good for women's basketball, but when you are talking NIL, isn't it all about advertising? Typically the more visibility leads to higher marketability and people aren't watching these games.
Brian Ferentz Will Receive a Substantial Raise - It's no secret that Iowa ranked 123rd this year in total offense and that teams with far better offenses fired their offensive coordinators after the season. I'm not going to pile on by saying the guy should be fired. But what most won't hear about is that Kirk will give him an automatic pay raise in the offseason exceeding the average household income in the state of Iowa...for his performance. Those who say life's not fair don't coach for their dad.
