Iowa's "weak" 2015 schedule - updated thru 10/24 games

[Joes Place]

I posted this in an earlier thread. Eliminating a few of the teams now out of any Top Ten contention (Utah, Texas A&M, FSU), below is what schedules to date look like.

Here is how I'm computing:
1. Take the W-L records for each team's opponents (FBS and FCS)
2. Remove the W-L for the weakest opponent (for Iowa, this is No. Texas, so the 0-7 comes off the list)
3. Remove the W-L from the opponents records that resulted from the direct competition (Iowa is 7-0, so we take 7 L's off the opponent's losses to see how the opponents have fared only against OTHER competition; for one loss teams, this also means removing a W from the opponent's win column, excluding all W/L for opponents vs. the listed team)

Team......Opps W/L.....Pct

Iowa 30-7 0.811
OSU 27-18 0.600
Baylor 18-17 0.514
TCU 19-17 0.528
MSU 28-15 0.651
LSU 28-9 0.757
Clemson 25-12 0.676
Alabama 30-14 0.682
Stanford 24-13 0.649
ND 23-12 0.657

The ONLY team with a remotely close SoS to Iowa using this method is LSU.
Alabama, Clemson, MSU, Stanford and ND all have respectable opponents' records (opponents are winning about two thirds of their other games). OSU's is 'ok'. Baylor and TCU have very weak schedules. In the prior list, FSU also stood out as having a very weak schedule, which was perhaps exposed vs. GaTech this weekend.

Again...Iowa's SoS is going to go down from here, but based on these numbers, really only LSU, Clemson and maybe MSU should legitimately be ranked ahead of Iowa. Others have schedules that are too suspect or are already 1-loss teams, although you can argue that Alabama is a VERY good one loss team, and Stanford is now playing really well.

And for those who 'bag' on Iowa's North Texas opponent at 0-7, pay attention to the other team's schedules. ND has 1-6 UMass, Stanford has 0-8 UCF, Alabama has 1-6 LA Monroe, and Baylor has 0-7 Kansas on their respective schedules. Clemson's 'worst' teams are all 3-5 (3 of them), so one can argue the may have the best overall schedule with no truly 'weak' teams.

How far Iowa's SoS will drop during the remaining season, and how much the other teams SoS will climb is mere speculation at this point; Iowa clearly deserves a spot in the Top Ten, and maybe even as high as the Top 5.....

Here's how I'd consider ranking these teams, considering their SoS numbers above:

1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. MSU
4. Alabama
5. Iowa
6. OSU
7. Stanford
8. ND
9. TCU
10. Baylor

 

[cedarvalleykid14]

A realistic analysis that makes sense, so you'll never see it on the worldwide leader. But kudos to you. Well done.

 

[BirdistheWord]

I would even suggest leaving in the weakest opponent, we still would be near the top

 

[THEBOSS77]

Can we please remove this chip from our collective shoulders? Who of note is railing on our schedule to date? Most of the criticism is with regard to the schedule we have left.

 

[Joes Place]

Can we please remove this chip from our collective shoulders? Who of note is railing on our schedule to date? Most of the criticism is with regard to the schedule we have left.

Were that actually the case, more than half the Top Ten would be being criticized for being over-ranked based on weak schedules. Few pundits are critical of Baylor or TCU, but they BOTH have sub-.500 opponents, and should probably be in the lower half of the Top 25 until they prove themselves against a decent opponent.

Just because a team's schedule is weighted toward the first 6 games in SoS vs. the last 6 games is no reason to be complaining about their schedule strength....

 

[mthawkeyes]

The weakest scheduling of all is SEC teams scheduling FCS teams the weekend before Thanksgiving. FCS teams have fewer scholarships and a season of attrition has them scraping together some of their units. To top it off, they have already played all of their regular season games that matter. If they are not a playoff team, they realize they are just making a cameo to provide financial support to their athletic department. If they are a playoff team, they are less likely to pull out all the stops and show playoff opponents new schemes or risk injury to key players. Nothing more than a glorified scrimmage.

 

[artradley]

Were that actually the case, more than half the Top Ten would be being criticized for being over-ranked based on weak schedules. Few pundits are critical of Baylor or TCU, but they BOTH have sub-.500 opponents, and should probably be in the lower half of the Top 25 until they prove themselves against a decent opponent.

Just because a team's schedule is weighted toward the first 6 games in SoS vs. the last 6 games is no reason to be complaining about their schedule strength....

I think the issue isn't simply whether Iowa's schedule compares favorably to other top teams. It's that the other teams started the season highly ranked based on last year's performance, returning players, etc.; so as long as they're winning it's assumed that the high ranking is deserved. Iowa, on the other hand, was not considered to be a top team this year. And while their schedule has been "pretty good", it hasn't been tough enough for them to prove the belong in the top five.

Look at it this way. There are six undefeated teams in front of Iowa, and five undefeated teams ranked below Iowa. So they're basically saying that Iowa is "average" among all undefeated teams in the country, because they don't have the kind of quality wins that proves otherwise. Again, it's not that Iowa's schedule is "weak"; it just isn't strong enough to put them in the top five.

That doesn't seem unfair.

 

[herecomethehawkeyes]

The weakest scheduling of all is SEC teams scheduling FCS teams the weekend before Thanksgiving. FCS teams have fewer scholarships and a season of attrition has them scraping together some of their units. To top it off, they have already played all of their regular season games that matter. If they are not a playoff team, they realize they are just making a cameo to provide financial support to their athletic department. If they are a playoff team, they are less likely to pull out all the stops and show playoff opponents new schemes or risk injury to key players. Nothing more than a glorified scrimmage.

Starting their conference games earlier than everybody else, the SEC gets a jump start on taking advantage of the inflated early season rankings earlier in the schedule than the rest of the conferences.
I mean, the likes of South Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas didn't stay ranked for long...gotta get a jump of capitalizing on it.