Is anyone seeing signs of the recession

Fijimn

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May 7, 2008
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Houston is somewhat isolated from economic malaise. So it may not be representative. But I was out to dinner 4 nights last week and every restaurant was packed with a waiting list. I have heard that some clients are starting to slow play bills. But I’m busy AF. I guess if the Fed goes up 100 basis points there may be more of an effect. But my anecdotal evidence doesn’t support this premise
 

The Tradition

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Apr 23, 2002
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Houston is somewhat isolated from economic malaise. So it may not be representative. But I was out to dinner 4 nights last week and every restaurant was packed with a waiting list. I have heard that some clients are starting to slow play bills. But I’m busy AF. I guess if the Fed goes up 100 basis points there may be more of an effect. But my anecdotal evidence doesn’t support this premise

Recessions don't stop people from going out to eat. Except for poors.
 
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noleclone2

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May 4, 2015
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I feel like we have been in this weird economic purgatory that is wobbling almost recession like for 2.5 years already due to Covid and supply chain and labor chain and inflation reasons. If one is coming, I don’t think it will be long or deep (that’s what she said).

If Putler is killed and the biggest war in Europe since 1945 ends with Ukraine victory, things will go nuts in a good way.
 
Oct 25, 2020
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Arby’s has the beef and cheddar on a 2 for $7 deal.

It was on the 5 for $5 less than 20 years ago. It was on the 5 for $5.95 for quite some time. It was on the 5 for $10 like 7-8 years back. It was on the 2 for $5 last year I believe. Now it’s on the 2 for $7.

The beef and cheddar is not a sandwich worth $3.50 never mind what it’s regular menu price is.

when the people stop buying this thing at this outlandish price, that will signal a major recession.
 
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ConvenientParking

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Jun 28, 2016
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Arby’s has the beef and cheddar on a 2 for $7 deal.

It was on the 5 for $5 less than 20 years ago. It was on the 5 for $5.95 for quite some time. It was on the 5 for $10 like 7-8 years back. It was on the 2 for $5 last year I believe. Now it’s on the 2 for $7.

The beef and cheddar is not a sandwich worth $3.50 never mind what it’s regular menu price is.

when the people stop buying this thing at this outlandish price, that will signal a major recession.

It's the best fast food sandwich and people know it now. Wings used to be cheap too (dainty portions and whatnot) but now people pay extra for all flats. I gotta stick up for the high demand for the roast beef and cheddar.
 

seminole97

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Jun 14, 2005
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I haven’t looked at any numbers for home sales around here, but anecdotally I’m not seeing signs hardly anywhere anymore.
There were some new subdivisions of two story shotgun shacks going in off Mahan, and a few hundred acres cleared for a new subdivision (presumably toward the McMansion side of the market) overlooking lake Piney Z.
I see less than a half dozen building right now in the latter so far. None completed.

Numbers coming in since September have changed the outlook:

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is just 0.5 percent now, down from 1.4 percent on September 7, and down from 2.6 percent on September 1


In two weeks they’ve dropped the Q3 GDP estimate significantly.
 

HawkRCID

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Nov 7, 2018
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I have noticed our local housing market softening….however planes, roads, hotels are all still full….so people are not hurting….
 
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dekhawk

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Nov 14, 2001
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My company can’t keep up with market demand for our products. Plants at seven days a week, 3 shifts and still behind. We do need to curb inflation so I’m in favor of some slowdown.
 

ping72

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Jan 14, 2009
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Arby’s has the beef and cheddar on a 2 for $7 deal.

It was on the 5 for $5 less than 20 years ago. It was on the 5 for $5.95 for quite some time. It was on the 5 for $10 like 7-8 years back. It was on the 2 for $5 last year I believe. Now it’s on the 2 for $7.

The beef and cheddar is not a sandwich worth $3.50 never mind what it’s regular menu price is.

when the people stop buying this thing at this outlandish price, that will signal a major recession.
You eat waaaay too much Arby’s.
 
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billanole

HR Legend
Mar 5, 2005
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I haven’t looked at any numbers for home sales around here, but anecdotally I’m not seeing signs hardly anywhere anymore.
There were some new subdivisions of two story shotgun shacks going in off Mahan, and a few hundred acres cleared for a new subdivision (presumably toward the McMansion side of the market) overlooking lake Piney Z.
I see less than a half dozen building right now in the latter so far. None completed.

Numbers coming in since September have changed the outlook:

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is just 0.5 percent now, down from 1.4 percent on September 7, and down from 2.6 percent on September 1

In two weeks they’ve dropped the Q3 GDP estimate significantly.
What is that crazy big development on the North (?) side of Miccosoukee Road? Thousands of houses on Fleishmann property…
Is it still moving forward?
 

bhawk24bob

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Jul 8, 2001
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You'll get a pretty good understanding of where peoples' finances are when the Call Reports due on 9/30 are published
 

bunsen82

HR MVP
May 6, 2004
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As an accountant here is what I have seen. A few of my contractors have had a decrease in jobs. The best are still busy. The rest are seeing a decline. I have a couple contractors that sell lumber, the commodity prices are down. Gas stations have done ok, restaurants are ok. We are seeing a decrease primarily just due to insane comps from last year.Farmers have less cash in general due to high input prices. We had some drought so I am curious to see yields and also prices. I had a handful that were able to sell last years corn at May so they are going to need to buy inputs or equipment.
 

BrunoMars420

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Feb 14, 2016
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The biggest place I see it is in my 401k lol buy I see inflation and such at the grocery stores plus high energy prices so I assume the lower class and middle class are having a tougher time than most. Housing has slowed in my area but I’m sure it’s a mix of rates and summer ending. Help wanted signs are every where and starting wages seem to be higher so not sure what to think of the current recession since the U/e rate is low and their are jobs everywhere
 
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dgordo

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Nov 15, 2001
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Chicago
We’re probably already in a recession if you listen to FedEx. The fed should probably halt the rate hikes.
 
Oct 25, 2020
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How does that compare to historical averages?
Something in this one
I think I remember people paying credit down a lot during lockdown because they could only buy workout equipment and it was all sold out so they got wine and booze instead but didn’t go anywhere.
 

HawkinK.C.1

HR MVP
Jun 20, 2013
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Houston, huh? Besides the full restaurants, did you notice the person begging on practically every corner and the homeless communities under all the bridges?
 

franklinman

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Apr 5, 2011
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Any public figures on credit card balances?

people seem to show no signs of slowing down.
I put a new roof on the house this year, plus a new garage door. going to have a walk in shower installed in the 3rd br next month, so no i'm not slowing down the spending.