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Is Lithuania Next?

Nov 28, 2010
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Lithuania has been blocking shipments to Kaliningrad on the grounds that EU sanctions require them to do so.

Russia is rattling sabers and pointing to signed agreements guaranteeing a certain minimum level of access.

At the moment, it looks like the EU may back down.

But if they don't back down, what happens if Russia decides to enforce their agreements? Suppose, for example, Russia and/or Belarus send in troops to commandeer a corridor to Kaliningrad?

Lithuania is in NATO. They could and likely would invoke Article 5. That doesn't require US troops in direct fighting with Russians. But it could head that way.

What should we do?

What would we do?

My bet is that the EU carves out an exception to their sanctions rather than watch Russia carve out a chunk of Lithuania. But that's just my guess.

 
Lithuania has been blocking shipments to Kaliningrad on the grounds that EU sanctions require them to do so.

Russia is rattling sabers and pointing to signed agreements guaranteeing a certain minimum level of access.

At the moment, it looks like the EU may back down.

But if they don't back down, what happens if Russia decides to enforce their agreements? Suppose, for example, Russia and/or Belarus send in troops to commandeer a corridor to Kaliningrad?

Lithuania is in NATO. They could and likely would invoke Article 5. That doesn't require US troops in direct fighting with Russians. But it could head that way.

What should we do?

What would we do?

My bet is that the EU carves out an exception to their sanctions rather than watch Russia carve out a chunk of Lithuania. But that's just my guess.

Zero chance.
Russia would get slaughtered against romania,poland, lithuania, etc.
Their border neighbors who are nato have some serious defenses.
 
highway-of-death.jpeg
 
Is there any purpose to this other than to provoke a military response against Nato? It literally only hurts civilians that are isolated from Russia. It wouldn't surprise me if a neocon, maybe Victoria Nuland, is behind this.
 
This. NATO air power is not what it once was, but Russia has shown that they cannot project air power, and that is after getting their ass handed to them for four months in Ukraine. They are down a lot of jets, and a lot of pilots. We can still move significant air assets from US bases to Europe, and we regularly train with our allies.
I also do not think Russia has the manpower and equipment to move on Lithuania, or any other nation at this time.
 
Zero chance.
Russia would get slaughtered against romania,poland, lithuania, etc.
Their border neighbors who are nato have some serious defenses.
Oh my. Russia has been doing it since '08. They will bank on the fact nobody gives a shit to die for Lithuania and they will be right. And appeasement will prevail yet again. The only nation in Eastern Europe that safe-ish is Poland and the Scandinavian nations. And that's only because this is just another rerun they have seen a dozen times and they're prepared
 
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This. NATO air power is not what it once was, but Russia has shown that they cannot project air power, and that is after getting their ass handed to them for four months in Ukraine. They are down a lot of jets, and a lot of pilots. We can still move significant air assets from US bases to Europe, and we regularly train with our allies.
I also do not think Russia has the manpower and equipment to move on Lithuania, or any other nation at this time.
When Russia runs out of ammo, money, other vital resources, and the ability to conduct commerce - but still has plenty of nukes - what do you think will happen?

Will Russia just quietly collapse?

I don't think that's a good bet.

I don't know why folks like Kissinger and Macron are saying we need to let Russia save face, but they are pretty smart guys. Maybe we ought to think about the consequences of pushing Russia entirely into a corner.

Right now it looks like Russia is going to achieve its minimal objectives on the ground in Ukraine. But will that be the end? If Russia stops at that point, will we? Or will we keep sending billion$ in weapons to Ukraine and try to not only recapture those territories but continue to bankrupt Russia?

An arms race that the USSR couldn't keep up with was a big part of the reason for the Soviet collapse. But Gorby wasn't Putin. Do you think Putin will gently step aside and watch the Russia he knows disintegrate?
 
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When Russia runs out of ammo, money, other vital resources, and the ability to conduct commerce - but still has plenty of nukes - what do you think will happen?

Will Russia just quietly collapse?

I don't think that's a good bet.

I don't know why folks like Kissinger and Macron are saying we need to let Russia save face, but they are pretty smart guys. Maybe we ought to think about the consequences of pushing Russia entirely into a corner.

Right now it looks like Russia is going to achieve its minimal objectives on the ground in Ukraine. But will that be the end? If Russia stops at that point, will we? Or will we keep sending billion$ in weapons to Ukraine and try to not only recapture those territories but continue to bankrupt Russia?

An arms race that the USSR couldn't keep up with was a big part of the reason for the Soviet collapse. But Gorby wasn't Putin. Do you think Putin will gently step aside and watch the Russia he knows disintegrate?
Here is the thing about nukes, you'd better not use them against someone who has them. Otherwise, your cities are going to glow. Putin wants to be the new tsar, not the guy who eliminated Russia from the map forever. He is a murderous thug, but like all murderous thugs he wants to survive. He will not if he lobs a single nuke over his border into Europe.
 
Here is the thing about nukes, you'd better not use them against someone who has them. Otherwise, your cities are going to glow. Putin wants to be the new tsar, not the guy who eliminated Russia from the map forever. He is a murderous thug, but like all murderous thugs he wants to survive. He will not if he lobs a single nuke over his border into Europe.
So . . . you're in the "oh, he won't do that, no matter how far we push him into a corner" camp.

But is Putin?

Or is he in the "après moi le déluge" camp?

I'd rather have a more solid basis for feeling safe.
 
Oh my. Russia has been doing it since '08. They will bank on the fact nobody gives a shit to die for Lithuania and they will be right. And appeasement will prevail yet again. The only nation in Eastern Europe that safe-ish is Poland and the Scandinavian nations. And that's only because this is just another rerun they have seen a dozen times and they're prepared

All of Lithuania's neighbors will join in and hammer any attacking Russian forces into oblivion. That would be some long awaited revenge for those once captive countries. I don't know what would happen if Russia resorts only to launching missiles like the ones that hit the mall in UKR today. The PB might prevail, insisting on no retaliatory attacks on Russian soil.
 
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All of Lithuania's neighbors will join in and hammer any attacking Russian forces into oblivion. That would be some long awaited revenge for those once captive countries. I don't know what would happen if Russia resorts only to launching missiles like the ones that hit the mall in UKR today. The PB might prevail, insisting on no retaliatory attacks on Russian soil.
We're literally to the point of them flagrantly targets civilians and it's Ts & Ps. This will escalate until its unavoidable then we'll call them the second great generation.
 
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Lithuania has been blocking shipments to Kaliningrad on the grounds that EU sanctions require them to do so.

Russia is rattling sabers and pointing to signed agreements guaranteeing a certain minimum level of access.

At the moment, it looks like the EU may back down.

But if they don't back down, what happens if Russia decides to enforce their agreements? Suppose, for example, Russia and/or Belarus send in troops to commandeer a corridor to Kaliningrad?

Lithuania is in NATO. They could and likely would invoke Article 5. That doesn't require US troops in direct fighting with Russians. But it could head that way.

What should we do?

What would we do?

My bet is that the EU carves out an exception to their sanctions rather than watch Russia carve out a chunk of Lithuania. But that's just my guess.

I don't think Lithuania is next, but if Russia does attack Lithuania, then NATO (including the US) should respond militarily.
 
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Oh my. Russia has been doing it since '08. They will bank on the fact nobody gives a shit to die for Lithuania and they will be right. And appeasement will prevail yet again. The only nation in Eastern Europe that safe-ish is Poland and the Scandinavian nations. And that's only because this is just another rerun they have seen a dozen times and they're prepared
100%, I truly believe there will be a mainstream push…especially from the GOP to not act if this were the case….and you know the two “DINO”s in the senate would vote with the GOP….and that’s assuming Biden would have the stones to do what needs to be done and push for military response to defend NATO.

But this is all a joke anyways, because Russia isn’t in the shape to take any country at the moment, let alone a member of NATO.
 
We're literally to the point of them flagrantly targets civilians and it's Ts & Ps. This will escalate until its unavoidable then we'll call them the second great generation.

They're currently targeting civilians on NATO soil?
 
Oh my. Russia has been doing it since '08. They will bank on the fact nobody gives a shit to die for Lithuania and they will be right. And appeasement will prevail yet again. The only nation in Eastern Europe that safe-ish is Poland and the Scandinavian nations. And that's only because this is just another rerun they have seen a dozen times and they're prepared
NATO member. There would be a NATO response. Putin knows that…
 
Is there any purpose to this other than to provoke a military response against Nato? It literally only hurts civilians that are isolated from Russia. It wouldn't surprise me if a neocon, maybe Victoria Nuland, is behind this.
Maybe Russia should of thought of that before attacking Ukrainian civilians.
 
Oh my. Russia has been doing it since '08. They will bank on the fact nobody gives a shit to die for Lithuania and they will be right. And appeasement will prevail yet again. The only nation in Eastern Europe that safe-ish is Poland and the Scandinavian nations. And that's only because this is just another rerun they have seen a dozen times and they're prepared
Why do you think the neocons would pass up the opportunity to have the US in a shooting war with the Russians that the Russians started?
 
So . . . you're in the "oh, he won't do that, no matter how far we push him into a corner" camp.

But is Putin?

Or is he in the "après moi le déluge" camp?

I'd rather have a more solid basis for feeling safe.
Yeah, pretty much. He will not strike first. As long as we don't nuke Russia, we are good.
Pro tip, don't post in French if you want to be taken seriously.
 
You're a stooge but even this one is transparent.
On what basis do you claim the neocons in Biden’s cabinet would advise the president to ignore an attack on a NATO member?

Is this entirely vacuous trolling, or do you have any reason to believe the White House would ignore Russia attacking a NATO member?
 
On what basis do you claim the neocons in Biden’s cabinet would advise the president to ignore an attack on a NATO member?

Is this entirely vacuous trolling, or do you have any reason to believe the White House would ignore Russia attacking a NATO member?
Not going to argue with you. It seems like you have a background in political science, which I do as well. Our understanding of it is completely different. I think Lithuania would be a perfect testing ground for Russia to see if NATO actually means anything. Just like Ukraine, it's Russia aggression. How we respond is what matters.
 
When Russia runs out of ammo, money, other vital resources, and the ability to conduct commerce - but still has plenty of nukes - what do you think will happen?

Will Russia just quietly collapse?

I don't think that's a good bet

This is what makes allies more scared... Russia has already demonstrated that more than likely they would get dominated by nato and the US would roll them in a conflict. Russia knows this and now the whole world does...That means they only have 1 card left to play... and a dictator that wants to stay in control is always a wild card.
 
Not going to argue with you. It seems like you have a background in political science, which I do as well. Our understanding of it is completely different. I think Lithuania would be a perfect testing ground for Russia to see if NATO actually means anything. Just like Ukraine, it's Russia aggression. How we respond is what matters.

You are correct to assume that NATO would not be unified if Russia were to attack Lithuania. France and Germany are probably already trying to negotiate a surrender of Lithuanian land. Lithuania's neighbors along the NATO border with Russia would not sit out an attack by Russia on any NATO member.
 
Not going to argue with you. It seems like you have a background in political science, which I do as well. Our understanding of it is completely different. I think Lithuania would be a perfect testing ground for Russia to see if NATO actually means anything. Just like Ukraine, it's Russia aggression. How we respond is what matters.
You asserted, without evidence, that NATO will abandon its entire raison d'etre.
Why would you think that?
Why would you spread that kind of disinformation?
I’m not ‘arguing’, I’m asking.
 
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