Is Mark Emmert crazy?

[HawkAssassin]

Bart Torvik has a metric that measures "talent" level based solely on recruiting profiles and each player's minutes. The game isn't played on paper, but the numbers match preseason prognostications with a few extreme exceptions.

I put the difference in rating from last year in parentheses.

1. MSU - 84.27 (+14.21)
2. Maryland - 82.08 (+3.26)
3. OSU - 77.35 (+20.93)
4. Indiana - 75.86 (+5.3)
5. Michigan - 75.48 (-4.95)
6. Minnesota - 63.99 (-7.53)
7. Iowa - 63.69 (+8.04)
8. Wisconsin - 60.04 (+0.44)
9. NW - 57.7 (+1.21)
10. Illinois - 57.25 (+1.01)
11. PSU - 53.4 (-4.12)
12. Purdue - 51.61 (-4.59)
13. Rutgers - 39.47 (+9.66)
14. Nebraska - 23.75 (-39.23)

Iowa's rating is the highest it's ever been under Fran.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

I think a lot of people forget that we were a couple buzzer beaters away from missing the tournament last year... and then we lost 2 of our best players.

Lol

 

[Raptorpeeps]

No, because he’s a loser ISU fan

“loser”? — okay, in the interest of full disclosure, I, unlike the majority of posters here (including L. Wade I’m sure) am not a handsome, shredded, self-made multimillionaire with a harem of super models. So... I’ll own that one.

“ISU fan”? — that sir, is a bridge too far. A statement so defamatory that were you to utter it in an old west saloon, I could shoot you dead and no judge or jury in the land would convict me.

Alas, we live in a graceless age where such cowardly liable can go unpunished.

The idea of a just creator should make you tremble.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

Full disclosure- I am mostly, but not entirely, self-made

 

[Raptorpeeps]

Bart Torvik has a metric that measures "talent" level based solely on recruiting profiles and each player's minutes. The game isn't played on paper, but the numbers match preseason prognostications with a few extreme exceptions.

I put the difference in rating from last year in parentheses.

1. MSU - 84.27 (+14.21)
2. Maryland - 82.08 (+3.26)
3. OSU - 77.35 (+20.93)
4. Indiana - 75.86 (+5.3)
5. Michigan - 75.48 (-4.95)
6. Minnesota - 63.99 (-7.53)
7. Iowa - 63.69 (+8.04)
8. Wisconsin - 60.04 (+0.44)
9. NW - 57.7 (+1.21)
10. Illinois - 57.25 (+1.01)
11. PSU - 53.4 (-4.12)
12. Purdue - 51.61 (-4.59)
13. Rutgers - 39.47 (+9.66)
14. Nebraska - 23.75 (-39.23)

Iowa's rating is the highest it's ever been under Fran.

I’m familiar with Torvik but not with this “talent” metric. Can you provide a link or explain how to construct it? Thanks.

 

[HawkAssassin]

I’m familiar with Torvik but not with this “talent” metric. Can you provide a link or explain how to construct it? Thanks.

http://barttorvik.com/team-maps.php?year=2020

To get the score just change the x or y value to talent and hover over the dots. I don't know the formula. I only know it's based on a recruiting value and the minutes players play (In preseason, it would be based on expected minutes if I had to guess). I don't think a 4 star who redshirted would provide any talent score for example. Torvik is a badger so I saw this data used on their board one time and was intrigued. A lot of people like using recruiting data in football/basketball, but I'd never seen something quantifiable beyond # of 4/5 stars.

If you look over his site, you can also get a recruiting value for individual players. Joe was an 88 value player for example.

 

[Jizzer]

Cook shot three more free throws per game and two more free throws per 40 minutes than the next highest contributors. These stats don’t even take into account non-shooting fouls that TC drew prior to being in the bonus (he drew fouls off the dribble better than anybody else on the team). If anything, your confident assumption that Cook’s foul-drawing ability will be replaced is unfounded.

As Legend said, if there is anything that Cook did consistently better than anybody else on the team, it was putting other teams’ players in foul trouble and get to the line. His rebounding can be replaced. His scoring can be replaced. His defense can rather easily be replaced. I’m not sure his ability to draw fouls can.

I don't think anyone really knows, but TC also took the most shots on the team, so I think it goes without saying he was going to draw the most fouls. With that being said, if he did miss 72 FTs/or 6 a game last year at 64%. We really could just shoot 3 less attempted FTs per game and have someone that shoots 80% taking them and we pretty much break even. We will find out soon enough.

 

[Legend12]

I don't think anyone really knows, but TC also took the most shots on the team, so I think it goes without saying he was going to draw the most fouls. With that being said, if he did miss 72 FTs/or 6 a game last year at 64%. We really could just shoot 3 less attempted FTs per game and have someone that shoots 80% taking them and we pretty much break even. We will find out soon enough.

Wut? He didn't miss 6 FTs per game last season.

 

[Mccusk34]

TC was a huge hole on that team, he had one skill, jumping. He was a poor man's Reggie Evans. Splitting his 376 shots to players who understand basketball and can actually score on more than a dunk could be a net positive to this team. Only 1 of the players they lost (that played) could play defense. Another potential net positive. JW is an actual great player, not just a great athlete. The biggest question for me is who will provide the high energy spark off the bench to replace Baer? With potentially improved defense and 376 shots being potentially taken by guys with basketball skills, I don't think it's unreasonable to believe this team could be better this year.

I don't think anyone really knows, but TC also took the most shots on the team, so I think it goes without saying he was going to draw the most fouls. With that being said, if he did miss 72 FTs/or 6 a game last year at 64%. We really could just shoot 3 less attempted FTs per game and have someone that shoots 80% taking them and we pretty much break even. We will find out soon enough.

 

[unoHawkeye]

I don't think anyone really knows, but TC also took the most shots on the team, so I think it goes without saying he was going to draw the most fouls. With that being said, if he did miss 72 FTs/or 6 a game last year at 64%. We really could just shoot 3 less attempted FTs per game and have someone that shoots 80% taking them and we pretty much break even. We will find out soon enough.

Cook averaged 2.2 misses at the free throw line last year so your math doesn’t add up. The amount of free throws taken/made isn’t the point. Yes, you obviously want somebody who is going to make them. Cook’s value in terms of getting fouled was his ability to force other teams’ key players to either change the way they play, or force them to the bench because of foul trouble. As I look at the current roster (current “knowns”), I see only Wieskamp as somebody who could come close to replicating that value in this coming season

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Read through all the doubt in this thread and compare it to the reactions now. Some even agreed that 12th wasn’t out of the question. And that was BEFORE the injuries/illness.

 

[unoHawkeye]

Cook averaged 2.2 misses at the free throw line last year so your math doesn’t add up. The amount of free throws taken/made isn’t the point. Yes, you obviously want somebody who is going to make them. Cook’s value in terms of getting fouled was his ability to force other teams’ key players to either change the way they play, or force them to the bench because of foul trouble. As I look at the current roster (current “knowns”), I see only Wieskamp as somebody who could come close to replicating that value in this coming season

Garza said “FU” to me in this thread

 

[CP84]

Read through all the doubt in this thread and compare it to the reactions now. Some even agreed that 12th wasn’t out of the question. And that was BEFORE the injuries/illness.

I guess my original post was in line with reality.

And Emmert is nuts.

The same guy picked ISU to win the football game and Iowa to finish 12th in basketball.

Take away his Hawkeye reporting privilege.