Is Rubio the GOP's only shot?

[2facedboonefan]

I have a really hard time seeing Trump or Cruz being able to win in November. Assuming we end up with an establishment vs establishment race with Clinton and Rubio though, I could see Hillary losing a squeaker where she maybe even wins the popular vote like Al Gore did in 2000.

If you're a Bernie Sanders supporter, you might be disappointed about Hillary losing the general, but it would at least open the way for someone like Warren in 2020.

If you're a Trump or Cruz supporter I'm not sure how you feel about a Rubio victory. For four to eight years the establishment will be in charge, and we'll almost certainly be at war for part of it. Bush Part Deux (or I guess Part Trois)?

 

[IMCC965]

No.

 

[Huey Grey]

Is Rubio a shot, period? That's the question. So far he hasn't inspired much passion. He's been mostly picked over and has had to accept third place. Is he the best guy on paper? You bet. But I'm not sure how much of a chance someone has who is most people's second or third choice?

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

Rubio is building up steam. He has a definite shot to win if he's the pick. Trump and Cruz are too far out there to win.

 

[Huey Grey]

Rubio is building up steam. He has a definite shot to win if he's the pick. Trump and Cruz are too far out there to win.

Sure he is picking up steam, but will taking second be good enough? Hoping that the two guys in front of you fizzle out doesn't suggest that you have a strong chance of winning.

 

[StonesCat]

Rubio would beat Clinton pretty handily, I think. She doesn't even excite anyone in her own party. I think outside of Cruz and Trump, any of the candidates would have a good shot against her, but Rubio is the most attractive alternative in a variety of ways for the Republicans. Youth, could cut into the hispanic edge, didn't come from money, immigration wouldn't hurt him like it might in the primaries, etc etc.

 

[moral_victory]

Rubio would beat Clinton pretty handily, I think. She doesn't even excite anyone in her own party. I think outside of Cruz and Trump, any of the candidates would have a good shot against her, but Rubio is the most attractive alternative in a variety of ways for the Republicans. Youth, could cut into the hispanic edge, didn't come from money, immigration wouldn't hurt him like it might in the primaries, etc etc.

I saw the people that Clinton excited at the caucuses. Many of them will not make it to November. RIP old ass corporate democrats.

 

[Pepperman]

I've thought Rubio is a good candidate from the start of the campaign, but then he kind of disappeared. While he maintains he's "being positive", the attack ads against his senate terms and voting history are somewhat damning. I do think he would out-debate Hillary though, so that could be interesting.

 

[2facedboonefan]

Is Rubio a shot, period? That's the question. So far he hasn't inspired much passion. He's been mostly picked over and has had to accept third place. Is he the best guy on paper? You bet. But I'm not sure how much of a chance someone has who is most people's second or third choice?

I think once Bush, Kasich, and Christie are out, most of their support will go to Rubio and it will really be a three person race. I see Rubio as one of the final two standing because of money, but what happens with Trump and Cruz will determine whether he wins the nomination. Who do Trump or Cruz supporters favor once their candidate drops out? That's what I think will determine the nominee.

 

[Pepperman]

I saw the people that Clinton excited at the caucuses. Many of them will not make it to November. RIP old ass corporate democrats.

What, her supporters don't drop enough F-bombs or cries to "Occupy"? The youth in the democratic party are fools, pure and simple...

 

[Huey Grey]

Rubio would beat Clinton pretty handily, I think. She doesn't even excite anyone in her own party. I think outside of Cruz and Trump, any of the candidates would have a good shot against her, but Rubio is the most attractive alternative in a variety of ways for the Republicans. Youth, could cut into the hispanic edge, didn't come from money, immigration wouldn't hurt him like it might in the primaries, etc etc.

On paper it looks like Rubes should take Clinton, but in reality, I doubt it. Hillary may be polarizing, but she does stir passion. Rubes simply sounds like the safe pick. Not sure a safe pick with no message wins the WH.

 

[moral_victory]

What, her supporters don't drop enough F-bombs or cries to "Occupy"? The youth in the democratic party are fools, pure and simple...

There were some young people there, but there was more working class than anything. Don't be such a clown.

 

[moral_victory]

On paper it looks like Rubes should take Clinton, but in reality, I doubt it. Hillary may be polarizing, but she does stir passion. Rubes simply sounds like the safe pick. Not sure a safe pick with no message wins the WH.

Rubes for Rubes 2016

These signs need to happen.

 

[theiacowtipper]

I think once Bush, Kasich, and Christie are out, most of their support will go to Rubio and it will really be a three person race. I see Rubio as one of the final two standing because of money, but what happens with Trump and Cruz will determine whether he wins the nomination. Who do Trump or Cruz supporters favor once their candidate drops out? That's what I think will determine the nominee.

Except that when Trump/Cruz are out their support goes to the other candidate. Right now, according to RCP, the pair of Trump/Cruz are pulling down almost 54% of the vote. Where is the rest of the numbers for Rubio coming from? I realize numbers can change, but it seems an uphill battle for the establishment wing of the party. They've been saying that the numbers for the upstart wing will fade, but they've been saying that for nearly a year.

By the way, who would have figured a few years back that Rubio would be considered establishment?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

 

[Huey Grey]

I think once Bush, Kasich, and Christie are out, most of their support will go to Rubio and it will really be a three person race. I see Rubio as one of the final two standing because of money, but what happens with Trump and Cruz will determine whether he wins the nomination. Who do Trump or Cruz supporters favor once their candidate drops out? That's what I think will determine the nominee.

I think both Trump and Cruz supporters have made it clear they are anti-establishment. So it's hard to think they will break for Rubio. Plus both of them combined have over 50% of the vote. So even if Rubes picks up Bush, Kasich, and Christie's vote, he'll still be behind.

To me, Rubio is like Romney in 2012. Safe but not exciting. But Rubio is behind where Romney is, so it's debatable if he can catch up. And don't forget, Mitt got creamed after he did become the nominee. I think Rubes has his work cut out for him. It'll be a difficult climb, even more so given that it isn't likely he will win either New Hampshire nor South Carolina. No candidate has lost all three first states and gone on to claim the nomination.

 

[artradley]

I have a really hard time seeing Trump or Cruz being able to win in November. Assuming we end up with an establishment vs establishment race with Clinton and Rubio though, I could see Hillary losing a squeaker where she maybe even wins the popular vote like Al Gore did in 2000.

If you're a Bernie Sanders supporter, you might be disappointed about Hillary losing the general, but it would at least open the way for someone like Warren in 2020.

If you're a Trump or Cruz supporter I'm not sure how you feel about a Rubio victory. For four to eight years the establishment will be in charge, and we'll almost certainly be at war for part of it. Bush Part Deux (or I guess Part Trois)?

Cruz vs Hillary = Hillary
Trump vs Hillary = Hillary
Cruz vs Bernie = Bernie
Trumps vs Bernie = Bernie
Rubio vs Hillary = Toss-up
Rubio vs Bernie = Rubio

 

[TankHawk]

Sure he is picking up steam, but will taking second be good enough? Hoping that the two guys in front of you fizzle out doesn't suggest that you have a strong chance of winning.

The majority of folks currently supporting Trump and Cruz to an extent aren't really that excited about their candidate, they're excited about supporting someone who is anti- establishment. As they realize that will not win a general election they will continue to choose a viable candidate (as many in Iowa the night of the caucus did) and Rubio looks to be the guy who they will choose since he is the most likely to defeat Hillary.

 

[moral_victory]

Cruz vs Hillary = Hillary
Trump vs Hillary = Hillary
Cruz vs Bernie = Bernie
Trumps vs Bernie = Bernie
Rubio vs Hillary = Toss-up
Rubio vs Bernie = Rubio

So if Bernie gets the democratic nomination in a wave of progressives you think his message stalls running against an establishment BAU republican?

 

[ottumwan in tx]

Larry nichols went on alex jones show yesterday and said the powers that be are gonna destroy rubio with big news that he is batting for the other side and i do not mean the dems , well maybe that side as well now

 

[Huey Grey]

Except that when Trump/Cruz are out their support goes to the other candidate. Right now, according to RCP, the pair of Trump/Cruz are pulling down almost 54% of the vote. Where is the rest of the numbers for Rubio coming from? I realize numbers can change, but it seems an uphill battle for the establishment wing of the party. They've been saying that the numbers for the upstart wing will fade, but they've been saying that for nearly a year.

By the way, who would have figured a few years back that Rubio would be considered establishment?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Another problem Rubes has is that he is very conservative. That isn't likely to pay dividends in the general. He also has never been the frontrunner and hasn't had to endure everyone going after him. He's had the luxury of both front runners playing hands off with him and only had to worry about the guy's below him attack him. So we have no idea how well he can put up with a relentless barrage of attacks from high level opponents.

 

[stillh8unlv]

Kasich would be the best general election candidate, but Republicans seem to lack common sense these days so we have what we have.

I would go with Kasich/Rubio all day long, but what do I know. They probably can't Make America Great Again or Win at Everything or 'do' some other empty catch phrase.

 

[theiacowtipper]

There is one reason to support Rubio.

 

[83Hawk]

Hillary won't win in November....people just don't like her.

Sanders is a loon. He will get slaughtered in Mondale-esq fashion by whomever the Republicans put out there. While Hillary is polarizing and much-hated, she at least has a chance to win the presidency. Sanders has none.

 

[Huey Grey]

Cruz vs Hillary = Hillary
Trump vs Hillary = Hillary
Cruz vs Bernie = Bernie
Trumps vs Bernie = Bernie
Rubio vs Hillary = Toss-up
Rubio vs Bernie = Rubio

Actually I think Bernie beats Rubio. Bernie has way more passion, way more supporters, and has the strongest message of the election. Plus Bernie has a message geared towards the future. I think Bernie would dismantle Rubio.

 

[Huey Grey]

Hillary won't win in November....people just don't like her.

Sanders is a loon. He will get slaughtered in Mondale-esq fashion by whomever the Republicans put out there. While Hillary is polarizing and much-hated, she at least has a chance to win the presidency. Sanders has none.

I think you're vastly underestimating Sanders. I personally think he's going to beat Hillary for the nomination. He has more small dollar donors which translates into more voters period than anyone (don't forget, he set records for the number of small dollar donors). Put that up against anyone and they'll have their hands full.

 

[ottumwan in tx]

There is one reason to support Rubio.

so larry is wrong then

 

[ottumwan in tx]

I think you're vastly underestimating Sanders. I personally think he's going to beat Hillary for the nomination. He has more small dollar donors which translates into more voters period than anyone (don't forget, he set records for the number of small dollar donors). Put that up against anyone and they'll have their hands full.

he will win as far as having more votes- but then they will sahft him just like iowa

 

[Huey Grey]

he will win as far as having more votes- but then they will sahft him just like iowa

Perhaps. That might be the only way to keep him down.

 

[CoachH]

I have a really hard time seeing Trump or Cruz being able to win in November. Assuming we end up with an establishment vs establishment race with Clinton and Rubio though, I could see Hillary losing a squeaker where she maybe even wins the popular vote like Al Gore did in 2000.

If you're a Bernie Sanders supporter, you might be disappointed about Hillary losing the general, but it would at least open the way for someone like Warren in 2020.

If you're a Trump or Cruz supporter I'm not sure how you feel about a Rubio victory. For four to eight years the establishment will be in charge, and we'll almost certainly be at war for part of it. Bush Part Deux (or I guess Part Trois)?

As someone whose an independent but with a democrat lean, Rubio is the only R I could stomach voting for. If he has enough real ideas put forth, I could see myself voting for him just because of my distaste for the top 2 democrats.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Women and gays think Rubio is attractive. That can't hurt. But how many gays will forgive his position on them? And how many women who aren't already voting R will abandon Hillary for that superficial reason?

David Brooks has been pushing Rubio for as long as I can remember. And once Bush disappointed (repeatedly) in the debates, the R establishment has been drifting his way.

If Rubio commits a serious gaffe, he's toast. Just look at what the media did to newcomer Howard Dean when Dean made the mistake of being overly enthusiastic in such an easily mocked way. The media were waiting and they pounced.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Who does FOX support?

I haven't watched them enough to have picked up on the cues that I'm sure are there. But I have noticed FOX repositioning themselves to be the news medium of record if/when a Republican administration takes over. More tempered in their presentation. Almost respectable for sheer minutes at a time.

Their blatant effort to make Fiorina relevant has fizzled. Although maybe she still has a shot at VP.

 

[sijoint]

Is Rubio a shot, period? That's the question. So far he hasn't inspired much passion. He's been mostly picked over and has had to accept third place. Is he the best guy on paper? You bet. But I'm not sure how much of a chance someone has who is most people's second or third choice?

Interesting comment. Democrats, especially, (as well as his Republican opponents, such as Chris Christy, Jeb Bush, Donald Trump) now realize that Rubio is immerging as a srong threat/contender for the Presidency, These types of comments above to me tells you that they are very threated........so the first thing they do...start introducing doubt, diminishing their capabilities, disagreeing/downplaying with the consensus thinking that (Rubio is a good candidate). When this happens/what it does, IMO, starts saying.....Rubio is the guy. Lets wait and see how Rubio handles the attacks in NH.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

If Rubio come in 2nd or better in NH, he could go all the way.

If the better-than-expected showing in Iowa - still only 3rd, but a much closer 3rd than predicted - doesn't continue into NH, it will probably start looking like a fluke.

So which front-runner does Rubio have the best shot of bypassing in NH, Cruz or Trump?

 

[83Hawk]

I think you're vastly underestimating Sanders. I personally think he's going to beat Hillary for the nomination. He has more small dollar donors which translates into more voters period than anyone (don't forget, he set records for the number of small dollar donors). Put that up against anyone and they'll have their hands full.

Respectfully disagree. America may vote a Socialist into the White House some day, but that day isn't now. If he becomes the nominee, then the general public will start paying attention to him. Once they see what he is, he is dead in the water.

He'll get the votes of the extreme left and the fools who think the government is going to give them "free" stuff, but that's about it.

 

[Huey Grey]

Interesting comment. Democrats, especially, (as well as his Republican opponents, such as Chris Christy, Jeb Bush, Donald Trump) now realize that Rubio is immerging as a srong threat/contender for the Presidency, These types of comments above to me tells you that they are very threated........so the first thing they do...start introducing doubt, diminishing their capabilities, disagreeing/downplaying with the consensus thinking that (Rubio is a good candidate). When this happens/what it does, IMO, starts saying.....Rubio is the guy. Lets wait and see how Rubio handles the attacks in NH.

Not sure how you can be the guy when you've been in third place and aren't slated to win any of the first four primaries? Also not sure how you can be the guy when the two guys in front of you have largely ignored you? Rubio is only the guy for the guys behind him, but that's not saying much. None of those guys seem to have any legitimate shot at the nomination.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I haven't paid attention to NH for a long time. Back in the day it was seen as a pretty conservative state whose opinion was significantly shaped by the fascist-leaning Manchester Union Leader. Is that still true?

 

[Huey Grey]

If Rubio come in 2nd or better in NH, he could go all the way.

If the better-than-expected showing in Iowa - still only 3rd, but a much closer 3rd than predicted - doesn't continue into NH, it will probably start looking like a fluke.

So which front-runner does Rubio have the best shot of bypassing in NH, Cruz or Trump?

He'll need to do better than 2nd. He'll have to start getting 1st before he has any shot. And he'll have the best chance of bypassing Trump.

 

[2facedboonefan]

If Rubio come in 2nd or better in NH, he could go all the way.

If the better-than-expected showing in Iowa - still only 3rd, but a much closer 3rd than predicted - doesn't continue into NH, it will probably start looking like a fluke.

So which front-runner does Rubio have the best shot of bypassing in NH, Cruz or Trump?

Probably Cruz. I think if Bush, Kasich, and Christie were out already, Rubio might actually have a shot to win New Hampshire.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Respectfully disagree. America may vote a Socialist into the White House some day, but that day isn't now. If he becomes the nominee, then the general public will start paying attention to him. Once they see what he is, he is dead in the water.

He'll get the votes of the extreme left and the fools who think the government is going to give them "free" stuff, but that's about it.

Ah, the good old "free stuff" red herring.

Some things never get old.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

He'll need to do better than 2nd. He'll have to start getting 1st before he has any shot. And he'll have the best chance of bypassing Trump.

I'm thinking 2nd in NH continues the momentum and sets him up for 1st in S.Carolina.

Bush needs to do well in S.Carolina, too. As does Cruz. One of these 3 guys (Rubio, Bush or Cruz) will have a hard time continuing beyond S.Carolina. Even two 2nd place finishes in NH and SC might not be enough. But a 2nd and a 1st should be a big boost for whoever pulls it off.