It's all a guessing game and they all just sit around and "try" to project things for the next year and then they can't provide anything telling me why their projection is the correct one and the others are wrong.
Is there a more useless profession than actuaries?
- Thread starter runkpanole
- Start date
Can you provide some context here? What are you working on?
Actuaries use complex models to determine a result. There are assumptions that have to be built in to the model since they are predicting an unknown future. For example, in life insurance that have to predict life expectancy, internal investment returns, etc. Not all companies use the same assumptions. There really is no "correct".
The last thing an actuary would do is "guess".
Long story short, Actuary 1 says the rates should be x, Actuary 2 says they should be y. At the end of the day, both sound like they are throwing darts at a dart board. So, yes, they are guessing. Some guess well, some guess poorly, but nobody really shows their work. I see them as the weather person of the financial industry.
no, but they have via FB. Most legitimate posters on a message board are interested in discussion, but probably won't have their minds changed. Various dummies on FB however, gobble up Russian propaganda like it's true.
When weathermen predict the weather, it's usually for a few days.
Actuaries are predicting outcomes for decades. Companies use different assumptions. Neither one is "right", but they get to decide the assumptions used.
Investment managers and sports books look at all the information they can and predict short term outcomes - basically an educated guess.
Actuaries use math and models to predict long term outcomes. But, it is still a very sophisticated and managed guess.
Seems like AI would replace them eventually.
my understanding is it’s hard as hell to become one.
my understanding is it’s hard as hell to become one.
