Is Trump Really Up 20 Points?

[Scruddy]

I know kamala/walz is a disaster ticket but this seems as realistic as hillary/biden up 10 before the election. How much weight should we put into these recent polls?



There seems to be mass panic in the Harris campaign. Not a lot of long term friendlies (how could there be with a 92% turnover rate?) And we are seeing pretty crazy leaks to left leaning sites like axios as of late.

 

[Bonerfarts]

Nope

 

[Scruddy]

Nope

Please contact your reps and request they pass the upcoming spending bill with the save act attached. Don't let trump cheat his way to the Whitehouse!

 

[noStemsnoSTICKS]

Sure. If you ask him. Especially on all the hillbilly polls.

 

[Bonerfarts]

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Please contact your reps and request they pass the upcoming spending bill with the save act attached. Don't let trump cheat his way to the Whitehouse!

You fell for Elons false flag. Be more vigilant in your independent thinking.

 

[Scruddy]

You fell for Elons false flag. Be more vigilant in your independent thinking.

What's a false flag about stopping non citizens from voting? Given the surge of Latino support for Trump I'd think the dems would be worried or at least mildly concerned about the possibility

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

What's a false flag about stopping non citizens from voting? Given the surge of Latino support for Trump I'd think the dems would be worried or at least mildly concerned about the possibility

You should be getting paid like the rest of the stooges, Harv….

 

[Scruddy]

He said it out loud.. yikes!!

 

[DFSNOLE]

Even your favorite Rasmussen poll has had his lead shrink from +6 to +1. He's losing. Deal with it.

 

[Scruddy]

Even your favorite Rasmussen poll has had his lead shrink from +6 to +1. He's losing. Deal with it.

"He's winning, but he's losing! Deal with it!"

Genius take. Real galaxy brain stuff lol

 

[seminole97]

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I know kamala/walz is a disaster ticket but this seems as realistic as hillary/biden up 10 before the election. How much weight should we put into these recent polls?

That's not a poll.

It's Silver's effort to model the election outcome probabilities based on a lot of factors (including polls).

2016 was a rough night...

 

[mro1978]

As much as I want Cackles the DEI hire to lose this poll is not even close to accurate. Most of the polls I've seen are at most 52/48 with either candidate.

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

Harvard educated OP can’t understand the difference between probability to win the election vs. polling numbers.

Hint, Trump is not up 20 points.

Now THAT might be the funniest shit of the year.

LOL

 

[Scruddy]

Harvard educated OP can’t understand the difference between probability to win the election vs. polling numbers.

Hint, Trump is not up 20 points.

Now THAT might be the funniest shit of the year.

LOL

You're wrong. New data shows he is up 21 points after walz family endorsed him

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

You're wrong. New data shows he is up 21 points after walz family endorsed him

No, he’s not Harvard boy. You shit the bed in your OP.

Just man up, accept it, and move on.

 

[thewop]

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I know kamala/walz is a disaster ticket but this seems as realistic as hillary/biden up 10 before the election. How much weight should we put into these recent polls?

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There seems to be mass panic in the Harris campaign. Not a lot of long term friendlies (how could there be with a 92% turnover rate?) And we are seeing pretty crazy leaks to left leaning sites like axios as of late.

No, it doesn't say he's up 20 points. It says he has nearly a 60% chance to win the electoral college and she has a 60% chance of winning the popular vote. That actually indicates it's extremely close. It says she has a 1% lead in the popular vote, from 40k simulations... He's winning more states, and the right states, while she's winning more populous states.

It's close, that's the takeaway.

 

[joelbc1]

Harvard educated OP can’t understand the difference between probability to win the election vs. polling numbers.

Hint, Trump is not up 20 points.

Now THAT might be the funniest shit of the year.

LOL

I heard Trump was up 35 and Harris was a getting ready to concede tomorrow afternoon. Well, that’s what I heard……

 

[SoFla-Hawkeye]

I heard Trump was up 35 and Harris was a getting ready to concede tomorrow afternoon. Well, that’s what I heard……

Let me guess.. Scruddy is your source!

 

[Scruddy]

Let me guess.. Scruddy is your source!

I am an excellent source

 

[EasyHawk]

Scruddles is a moron.

 

[RollingBallofButcherKnives]

Got to keep saying he is winning, by a lot, all the way to election day so it looks more like it was “stollen” from him. Eat it up Scrufmeister. Hope that $1 per like buys you nice things, comrade….

 

[DFSNOLE]

"He's winning, but he's losing! Deal with it!"

Genius take. Real galaxy brain stuff lol

Thanks Ryan!

 

[SA_Hawk]

 

[speak34]

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Base an election of only polling 50% of the voting base. (50yr old+). For only having polling data on the 50+ voters, not a huge lead for MAGA, the other 50% will lean more Democratic.

But why would Clay Travis post anything except BS polls like this and think this is how the election will go.

 

[SA_Hawk]

 

[SA_Hawk]

Base an election of only polling 50% of the voting base. (50yr old+). For only having polling data on the 50+ voters, not a huge lead for MAGA, the other 50% will lean more Democratic.

But why would Clay Travis post anything except BS polls like this and think this is how the election will go.

This is just for Montana. Montana is flipping R in the Senate and going +15 for Trump.

 

[GES4]

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I know kamala/walz is a disaster ticket but this seems as realistic as hillary/biden up 10 before the election. How much weight should we put into these recent polls?

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There seems to be mass panic in the Harris campaign. Not a lot of long term friendlies (how could there be with a 92% turnover rate?) And we are seeing pretty crazy leaks to left leaning sites like axios as of late.

He’s up 80 pts. No reason for most Rs to even vote tbh.

 

[Scruddy]

He’s up 80 pts. No reason for most Rs to even vote tbh.

Nah, it's gotta be too big to rig. Gotta account for those 2am mail in ballots leaning 99% dem again

 

[B1GDeal]

Hell no... it's 69 points!!!

 

[SoFla-Hawkeye]

I am an excellent source

Of drivel and bullshit? Yes. Yes you are.

 

[Scruddy]

Of drivel and bullshit? Yes. Yes you are.

My "reporting" on all the trans school shooters is spot on. You're just a hater.

 

[Scruddy]

InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022)

#Latest Nate Silver's forecast (chance of winning)August 23🟦 Harris: 53.5%🟥 Trump: 46.1%September 6🟥 Trump: 61.5% 🟦 Harris: 38.3%——Swing States: chance of winning Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 62-38%Michigan - 🔴 Trump 52-48%Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump 52-48%Arizona - 🔴 Trump 75-25%North Carolina - 🔴 Trump...

truthsocial.com

It's getting worse for comrade Harris

 

[Scruddy]

It's getting much, much worse..

 

[Firekirknow]

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Please contact your reps and request they pass the upcoming spending bill with the save act attached. Don't let trump cheat his way to the Whitehouse!

Won’t that just make it more difficult to vote and disenfranchise voters. Isn’t it already illegal and proven extremely rare.

 

[NoleinATL]

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He said it out loud.. yikes!!

Why is this old video being posted again?

 

[Scruddy]

Won’t that just make it more difficult to vote and disenfranchise voters. Isn’t it already illegal and proven extremely rare.

LOL no to your first question, that's completely ridiculous. Yes and that last part isn't proven and we've never had as many illegals as we do now thanks to this disaster of an administration.

 

[Scruddy]

Why is this old video being posted again?

How many million illegals old is this soundbite?

 

[NoleinATL]

How many million illegals old is this soundbite?

Encounters/getaways are probably in the 2 to 2.5 range.
Do you know why the old video is being regurgitated?

 

[ericram]

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I know kamala/walz is a disaster ticket but this seems as realistic as hillary/biden up 10 before the election. How much weight should we put into these recent polls?

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There seems to be mass panic in the Harris campaign. Not a lot of long term friendlies (how could there be with a 92% turnover rate?) And we are seeing pretty crazy leaks to left leaning sites like axios as of late.

Well no need for the Rs to even vote. They have this one in the bag. Just stay home.

 

[Scruddy]

Well no need for the Rs to even vote. They have this one in the bag. Just stay home.

No way, it has to be too big to rig. Gotta account for those 2 am mail in ballots dumps that impossibly go 99% blue for some reason.