Jan 20: IOWA is #26 in NET Rankings.13 Games Left: 9 are Quad 1, 3 are Quad 2, & Nebraska is Quad 4

Discussion in 'Iowa Basketball' started by Franisdaman, Oct 14, 2019.

  1. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Jan 18: IOWA is #28 in the NET Rankings. How NET is Determined & What's a QUAD 1, 2, 3 & 4 Win/Loss

    See the graphic on the NET ranking at the end of this post.

    The very latest NET rankings of all 353 teams are here: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

    Here is some good info on how teams will be selected for the NCAA Tournament: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...-what-know-about-college-basketballs-new-tool

    As a reminder:

    * 32 teams receive automatic bids to the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament.

    * The NCAA Selection committee only selects the 36 teams who receive at-large bids.


    TWO things (among other tools)
    will be used by the NCAA Selection Committee when selecting the NCAA Tournament Teams & then seeding them:

    (1)
    The NET ranking, an index that incorporates the most current evaluation measures; and

    (2)
    A tighter definition of a quality win, classifying wins as Quad 1, Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4.

    The hope is that by using (1) and (2) we will have a more accurate selection and seeding procedure.


    The quadrant system will still be used on team sheets, which sort results in the following manner:

    SORTING OF #28 (NET Rank) IOWA'S RESULTS (13-5) INTO THE 4 QUADS:


    NOTE: Rankings of opponents listed below are from Jan 18, 2020, unless otherwise noted. Therefore, a Quad 1 win on the date listed might not be a Quad 1 win TODAY or in mid March (there has been fluidity from one day to the next). Time will tell.


    Quadrant 1 (4-3): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

    WIN
    #31 Texas Tech (N)
    WIN #67 Iowa State (A)
    WIN #17 Maryland (H)
    WIN #29 Michigan (H)

    LOSS #3 San Diego State (N)
    LOSS #29 Michigan (A)
    LOSS #41 Penn State (N)


    Quadrant 2 (3-1): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

    WIN #40 Minnesota (H)
    WIN #77 Syracuse (A)
    WIN #64 Cincinnati (N)

    LOSS #63 DePaul (H)


    Quadrant 3 (2-1): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.

    WIN #122 Oral Roberts (H)
    WIN #138 Northwestern (A)

    LOSS #165 Nebraska (A)


    Quadrant 4 (4-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353

    WIN
    #343 SIU-Edwardsville (H)
    WIN #200 North Florida (H)
    WIN #309 Cal Poly (H)
    WIN #350 Kennesaw State (H)


    13 games left on the 2019-2020 reg season schedule:

    Quadrant 1 (9 games): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75


    #22 Rutgers
    #27 Wisconsin
    #18 Ohio State
    #17 at Maryland
    #10 at Mich State
    #47 at Indiana
    #37 at Illinois

    #34 at Purdue
    #40 at Minnesota

    .
    Quadrant 2 (3 games): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.


    #41 Penn State
    #37 Illinois
    #34 Purdue

    Quadrant 3 (0 games): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.



    Quadrant 4 (1 game): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353


    #165 Nebraska


    2019-2020 NET Rankings for Iowa (notice the fluidity):

    #26 Jan 19, 20
    #28 Jan 18
    #29 Jan 17
    #30 Jan 16
    #31 Jan 13,14, 15
    #32 Jan 12
    #33 Jan 11
    #43 Jan 9 & Jan 10
    #47 Jan 8 (after losing at Nebraska)
    #33 Jan 6 & Jan 7
    #32 Jan 5
    #30 Jan 4
    #26 Jan 3
    #23 Jan 2
    #26 December 31 & Jan 1
    #24 on December 30
    #25 December 29
    #26 December 23-December 28
    #27 December 22
    #28 December 21
    #33 December 16 (initial rankings)

    ALL B1G TEAMS' (Jan 18, 2020) NET RANKINGS:


    Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1

    10 10 Michigan St. Big Ten 14-4 2-1 3-2 9-1 0-0
    17 16 Maryland Big Ten 13-4 0-4 3-0 10-0 0-0
    18 18 Ohio St. Big Ten 12-5 1-3 1-1 10-1 0-0
    22 22 Rutgers Big Ten 12-4 1-3 0-1 11-0 1-0
    27 25 Wisconsin Big Ten 11-7 3-3 0-3 8-1 0-0
    28 29 Iowa Big Ten 13-5 3-2 2-2 8-1 0-0
    29 28 Michigan Big Ten 11-6 0-5 3-0 8-1 0-0
    34 31 Purdue Big Ten 10-7 1-4 1-2 8-1 0-0
    37 36 Illinois Big Ten 11-5 2-3 0-1 9-1 1-0
    40 41 Minnesota Big Ten 10-7 0-5 1-1 9-1 0-0
    41 40 Penn St. Big Ten 12-5 1-3 2-1 9-1 0-0
    47 47 Indiana Big Ten 13-4 0-3 2-0 11-1 0-0
    138 139 Northwestern Big Ten 6-10 1-4 1-1 4-5 0-0
    165 167 Nebraska Big Ten 7-10 0-5 2-1 5-4 0-0
    _______________________________

    2018-2019 NET Rankings for Iowa (notice the fluidity):


    #40 Iowa ended the 2018-2019 season with a NET ranking of 40.


    #43 on March 17, 2019 (SELECTION SUNDAY) after TWO TEAMS IOWA BEAT (Iowa State & Oregon) won their conf championship AND Michigan & Mich State (IOWA was 1-3 vs them) advanced to the BTT Championship

    #44 on March 16 (after losing to #9 Michigan in BTT)
    #41 on March 15 (after beating #109 Illinois in BTT)
    #43 on March 14
    #42 on March 11 (day after loss AT Nebraska)
    #43 on March 10
    #45 on March 8
    #41 on March 7
    #40 on March 5
    #41 on March 3 & 4
    #33 on Feb 28 (was idle)
    #32 on Feb 27 (day after loss AT Ohio St)
    #30 on Feb 22, 23 and 24
    #29 on Feb 13 & 14
    #26 on Feb 10, 11 & 12
    #24 on Feb 7
    #22 on Feb 2 (after Feb 1's 15 pt home win vs Michigan)
    #27 on Jan 30 & Jan 31
    #28 on Jan 29

    #30 on Jan 28

    #25 on Jan 27
    #24 on Jan 26

    #22 on Jan 23

    #25 on Jan 22
    #25 on Jan 19
    #24 on Jan 18
    #29 on Jan 13

    #35 on Jan 12

    _______________________________

    To see all teams' NET Rankings & quadrant results, open the link that follows, scroll down on the page that comes up & on the far right you will see NET Team Sheets - Games through [date]. Click on the most recent link or a previous date.

    LINK: https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/SitePages/Home.aspx

    _______________________________


    Misc Note: The season kicked off on Nov 4, 2019. In 2018, the first ever NET rankings were revealed on November 26, 2018. This year the initial NET rankings were revealed on Dec 16.
    _______________________________

    CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW


    [​IMG]
     
    1 Franisdaman, Oct 14, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020 at 12:23 PM
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  2. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    The most consistent outcome year-over-year is the Selection Committee's exclusion of bubble teams with truly embarrassing non-league schedules.

    From ESPN.com


    Good schedule, bad schedule: Who helped, harmed their NCAA tournament chances?


    It was the biggest question on Selection Sunday 2019. What would be the fate of North Carolina State? The Wolfpack were a classic bubble team, whose record -- 22-11 overall, 9-9 conference, 1-1 ACC tournament (with a quarterfinal loss to top seed Virginia) -- seemed to fall on the good side of the at-large cut line.

    Except for a single data point: NC SOS No. 353, shorthand for the worst non-conference schedule in all of Division I men's basketball. Worse than Longwood (12-17, No. 352), worse than Western Illinois (8-21, No. 350), worse than Jacksonville (10-20, No. 345), worse than Fordham (11-20, No. 344). Among major conference members only DePaul (15-15, No. 351) was in the same neighborhood, and the Blue Demons have made only one NCAA tournament this century.

    Say what you want about the NCAA Men's Basketball Committee -- and I have -- but the most consistent outcome year-over-year is its exclusion of bubble teams with truly embarrassing non-league schedules. Nine of NC State's 22 wins came against sub-200 opponents in home-court "buy" games, a preposterous (and presumably expensive!) number that left the Pack with a pedestrian 13-11 record against meaningful competition.

    The Committee was not fooled by NC State's NET ranking (No. 33), relegating the Wolfpack to the NIT as a No. 2 seed. Had the RPI still been in effect, the Pack (No. 83) wouldn't have made the Selection Sunday conversation at all.

    The moral of the story is simple: In the NET era, teams probably can't schedule themselves into the NCAA tournament anymore. But they can absolutely schedule themselves out of it. N.C. State was Exhibit A last season, but Indiana (No. 209), Georgetown (No. 248) and Colorado (No. 255) were among those with what I like to call NIT-type schedules who got exactly what they deserved.

    With that in mind, we present the mostly annual "You heard it here first..." column. None of these teams should be surprised -- or complain, depending on the category -- when Selection Sunday 2020 comes around.

    The Bad...

    [​IMG]

    Iowa Hawkeyes
    Potential bubble teams need to avoid Quad Four in any great number. Instead, the Hawkeyes will entertain in Iowa City before the calendar turns in January.:

    * SIU-Edwardsville,
    * Oral Roberts,
    * North Florida,
    * Cal Poly and
    * Kennesaw

    That's a risky proposition for a team that often sneaks into the NCAA tournament as a double-digit seed.

    [​IMG]

    Maryland Terrapins
    What do Holy Cross, Oakland, Fairfield and Bryant have in common? They are more than one-third of Maryland's non-conference schedule and that is dangerous Quad Four territory for a program desperate for a major breakthrough season. Maybe Oakland drifts into Quad Three, but why take the chance?

    [​IMG]

    Notre Dame Fighting Irish
    Two years ago, the Irish were the first team out. Last year they lost their last seven regular-season games and never had a chance. With five obvious Quad Four home games by the end of December, Notre Dame is just asking for another season on the bubble. Mike Brey usually finds a way to make it work, but it's counterintuitive.

    [​IMG]

    Florida Gators
    The Gators are a trendy choice for a great NCAA seed and Final Four run, but they don't have a single Quad One lock among their non-conference opponents. Florida State (home) and Connecticut (away) could get there, but better bets might be Xavier (possible Charleston Classic final) and/or Utah State (Orange Bowl Classic).

    [​IMG]

    NC State Wolfpack
    It's better than last year, but not enough to get the Wolfpack off the "naughty list." St. Francis (N.Y.), Alcorn State, Little Rock, The Citadel and Appalachian State are all coming to Raleigh. The Committee all but hit the Pack in the head with a bat last March, and I'm not sure the best response is to buy a helmet.

    The Ugly...

    [​IMG]

    Texas Tech Red Raiders
    The need to rebuild a Final Four team doesn't excuse this mess. Eastern Illinois, Bethune-Cookman, Houston Baptist, Tennessee State and Long Island all visit Lubbock before Thanksgiving. Two more Quad Fours -- UT Rio Grande and Cal State Bakersfield -- come in December. The Red Raiders better hope they're not close to the bubble.

    https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...2/helped-harmed-their-ncaa-tournament-chances
     
  3. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Last year we went 6-0 in Quad 4.

    It looks like the schedule has improved where we only have five Quad 4 opponents this year:

    * SIU-Edwardsville,
    * Oral Roberts,
    * North Florida,
    * Cal Poly
    * Kennesaw


    HERE WAS THE SORTING OF LAST YEAR'S #43 (NET Rank) IOWA'S RESULTS (22-11) INTO THE 4 QUADS:


    Quadrant 1 (4-10): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

    WINS
    # 24 on Jan 16 (H) Iowa State
    #60 on Feb 23; #84 on Jan 17 (A) Penn State
    #2 on Jan 17 Michigan (H)
    #54 on Feb 23; #30 on Jan 17 Indiana (A)

    LOSSES
    # 20 on Jan 16 (H) Wisconsin
    #7 on Jan 16 (A) Michigan State
    #17 on Jan 16 (A) Purdue
    #6 on Jan 17 Michigan State (H)
    #63 on Jan 17 Minnesota (A)
    #21 on Jan 17 Maryland (H)
    #36 on Jan 17 Ohio State (A)
    #22 on Jan 17 Wisconsin (A)
    #46 on Feb 23; #11 on Jan 17 Nebraska (A)
    #9 on March 16 Michigan (B1G Tourney, Neutral site)


    Quadrant 2 (7-0): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

    WINS
    #77 on Jan 16 (N) Oregon
    #88 on Jan 16 (N) UConn
    #85 on Feb 23; # 58 on Jan 16 (A) Northwestern
    # 36 on Jan 16 (H) Ohio State
    #46 on Feb 23; # 10 on Jan 16 (H) Nebraska
    #109 on Feb 23; #136 on Jan 17 Rutgers (A)
    #54 on Feb 23; #30 on Jan 17 Indiana (H)


    Quadrant 3 (5-1): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.

    WINS
    #112 on Feb 23; #53 on Jan 16 (H) Pittsburgh
    #169 on Feb 23; #217 on Jan 16 (N) UNI
    #99 on Jan 17 Illinois (H)
    #85 on Feb 23; #59 on Jan 17 Northwestern (H)
    #109 on March 15 Illinois (B1G Tourney, Neutral site)


    LOSSES
    #94 on March 3; #109 on Feb 23; #136 on Jan 17 Rutgers (H)


    Quadrant 4 (6-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353

    WINS
    #234 on Jan 16 (H) UMKC
    #192 on Jan 16 (H) Green Bay
    #324 on Jan 16 (H) Alabama State
    #269 on Jan 16 (H) Western Carolina
    #343 on Jan 16 (H) Savannah State
    #316 on Jan 16 (H) Bryant
     
  4. HeRKeYHoPeFuL

    HeRKeYHoPeFuL HR MVP
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    It is interesting that we seem to really head more toward the extremes on our scheduling. This is how I see our non conference shaking into the tiers:

    Q1 (4): Texas Tech (N), Iowa State (A), Syracuse (A), Cincinnati (N)
    Q2 (1): Creighton/San Diego St. (N)
    Q3 (1): DePaul (H)
    Q4 (5): SIU Edwardsville (H), Oral Roberts (H), North Florida (H), Cal Poly (H), Kennesaw St. (H)

    I could see DePaul moving into Q2, and Oral Roberts & North Florida getting into Q3, which would probably help substantially, but they'd need to overachieve a bit to get there.
     
  5. L. Wade Childress

    L. Wade Childress HR Legend
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    Having quadrants is stupid when they are already adjusting for quality of opponent and result in the original calculation.
     
  6. SDHawkDoc

    SDHawkDoc HR Heisman
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    Would be good to get the Q4 teams on the schedule to 4 or fewer.
     
  7. HawkRugged17

    HawkRugged17 HR All-American
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  8. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Safe to say we are 1-0 in Quad 4? :)
     
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  9. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Good news! We will have a winning record and we will be 2-1 after Friday!

    Also, the game is on BTN Plus! LOVE the Plus!

    Bad news? We will be 2-0 in Quad 4 (Home vs a 161-353) after beating #297 (end of last season) Oral Roberts of the Summit League.
     
  10. HawkRugged17

    HawkRugged17 HR All-American
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  11. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    I don't have Plus. Got a link? :D
     
  12. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Last season, end of season NET Rankings:

    343: Kennesaw
    333: Cal Poly
    WIN 329: SIU-Edwardsville
    WIN 297: Oral Roberts
    181: North Florida
    LOSS 109: DePaul
     
  14. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    WHAT?
     
  15. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Do you need a replay link?
     
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  16. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    No thanks, I'm gonna can the BTN+ next month. :)
     
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  17. thirdandpunting

    thirdandpunting HR All-State
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    There are enough people in the world to create 343 NCAA basketball teams?
     
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  18. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Please keep your subscription. More Plus subscribers means more revenue which means more money for salary increases!

    #RELB
     
  19. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    The first NET rankings for this season should be coming out shortly.

    I am guessing what follows will be our sorted results thus far (NET rankings listed are the teams' April rankings, at the end of last season).

    We still have these 2 likely Quad 4 games:
    #343: Kennesaw
    #333: Cal Poly

    Sorting of our 3-1 Record:

    Quadrant 1 (0-0): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

    Quadrant 2 (0-0): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

    Quadrant 3 (0-1): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.
    LOSS #109: DePaul

    Quadrant 4 (3-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353
    WIN #329: SIU-Edwardsville
    WIN #297: Oral Roberts
    WIN #181: North Florida
     
    19 Franisdaman, Nov 22, 2019
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2019
  20. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    We'll be working on our "quads" big time soon.
     
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  21. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Here's a guess of where we stand.

    Sorting of our 4-1 Record:


    Quadrant 1 (0-0): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

    Quadrant 2 (0-0): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

    Quadrant 3 (0-1): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.
    LOSS #109: DePaul

    Quadrant 4 (4-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353
    WIN #329: SIU-Edwardsville
    WIN #297: Oral Roberts
    WIN #181: North Florida
    WIN #333: Cal Poly
     
  22. CP84

    CP84 HR All-American
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    Is DePaul only 109? On Kenpom they're 64 which would be a Q2.
     
  23. SDHawkDoc

    SDHawkDoc HR Heisman
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    If the goal is an at large bid to the NCAA tourney, then nothing about the results to date helps their case. The next 7 games could very well tell the story when it comes to the possibility of an at large bid.
     
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  24. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    The NET numbers I am currently using were the team's April 2019, season ending NET rankings.

    I hope you are right regarding DePaul, so that it is not as bad a loss.

    I am guessing that the initial 2019-2020 NET rankings come out this or next week.
     
  25. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Last year we were not overly impressive when it came to Quad 1 wins (we were 4-10).

    Do you think most of our next 7 games will end up being Quad 1 (
    Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75) & Quad 2? Unfortunately, I think we win 2 or maybe 3 (at best) of the next 7.

    Texas Tech (Nov 28)
    Creighton/San Diego St
    at Syracuse
    at Michigan
    Minny
    at ISU
    Cincy (Dec 21)
     
  26. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Here's a guess of where we stand.

    The NET numbers I am currently using were the team's April 8, 2019, season ending NET rankings.


    Sorting of our 5-1 Record:


    Quadrant 1 (1-0): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

    WIN
    #7 Texas Tech

    Quadrant 2 (0-0): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

    Quadrant 3 (0-1): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.

    LOSS
    #
    109: DePaul

    Quadrant 4 (4-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353

    WIN
    #329: SIU-Edwardsville
    WIN #297: Oral Roberts
    WIN #181: North Florida
    WIN #333: Cal Poly
     
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  27. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    Might be worthy of RELB.
     
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  28. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Fran looked really relaxed in the 2nd half. Maybe the contract has already been signed! :)
     
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  29. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    First smile on his kisser in awhile at game's end.
     
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  30. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Here's a guess of where we currently stand.

    The NET numbers I am currently using were the team's April 8, 2019, season ending NET rankings.


    Sorting of our 5-2 Record:


    Quadrant 1 (1-0): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

    WIN
    #7 Texas Tech


    Quadrant 2 (0-0): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.


    Quadrant 3 (0-2): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.

    LOSS #109: DePaul
    LOSS #116 San Diego State


    Quadrant 4 (4-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353

    WIN
    #329: SIU-Edwardsville
    WIN #297: Oral Roberts
    WIN #181: North Florida
    WIN #333: Cal Poly
     
  31. BrunoMars420

    BrunoMars420 HR Heisman
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    Those quad 3 losses hurt
     
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  32. srams21

    srams21 HR Legend
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    I think both will end up being Quad 2 losses. One might even be a Quad one loss.
     
  33. Underscore2

    Underscore2 HR All-State
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    DePaul and SDSU will not be quad 3 losses.
     
  34. HeRKeYHoPeFuL

    HeRKeYHoPeFuL HR MVP
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    Agree with the comments above, DePaul and San Diego St. will be quad 2 and quad 1.

    Both are undefeated and significantly higher in computer rankings than they were last year.
     
  35. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Yep. Right now it is just a guess on which bucket the losses fall into. Unfortunately, I think 4 of our wins are safely in quadrant 4.

    The NET numbers I am currently using were the team's April 8, 2019, season ending NET rankings.

    And whatever quadrant the losses fall into now might not be the quadrant they end up in March. There was movement last year and there will be movement this year as well.
     
  36. SDHawkDoc

    SDHawkDoc HR Heisman
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    DePaul and SDSU are highly likely to move up from quad 3.
    Probably won't see anything from the quad 4 group, but could be helpful if one of those turds would manage to sneak into quad 3.
     
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  37. Underscore2

    Underscore2 HR All-State
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    skydog0784 and Franisdaman like this.
  38. L. Wade Childress

    L. Wade Childress HR Legend
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    I still think it’s stupid to weight the overall rankings based on game locations, and then weight them AGAIN by using location to categorize wins and losses.

    If the want to use quadrants that’s fine, but the rankings already account for home/away/neutral so there’s no need to do it again when analyzing a resume.
     
  39. Franisdaman

    Franisdaman HR Legend
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    Texas Tech won tonight at #1 Louisville by 13.

    That helps.
     
  40. Hawksfor3

    Hawksfor3 HR Heisman
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    Are the first NET rankings coming out on Dec. 16?
     

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