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Jan 21 ESPN Bracketology: IOWA on the Bubble & the 5th Team OUT

Franisdaman

Franisdaman

HB King
Nov 3, 2012
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Jan 21, 2025 Update:

Joe Lunardi/ESPN projects the B1G getting 10 teams into the NCAA Tournament.

The 10 Teams & their projected Seed:
2 Purdue
3 Oregon
3 Michigan State
4 Illinois
5 Michigan
5 Wisconsin
9 UCLA
9 Maryland
11 Nebraska (1 of Last 4 in)
11 Indiana (1 of Last 4 in)

Others, on the Bubble:
Ohio State......4th team OUT
IOWA................5th team OUT
Penn State.....8th team OUT

The Full Bracket:

www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: Does Duke have a straight shot to the No. 1 overall seed?

The Blue Devils have the talent -- and the schedule -- to make the selection committee's job easy.
www.espn.com

..............................................

Original Post:

I know it's early, but in another thread we are talking about whether Iowa will really finish 16th or 17th in the B1G. In another thread, there's complaints that things are slow in this forum. And if you don't like this topic, just skip this thread for now.

Right now, Joe Junardi/ESPN essentially has Iowa 13th in the B1G.

Joe/ESPN projects the B1G getting 10 teams into the NCAA Tournament.

The 10 Teams & their Seed:
4 Purdue
5 Indiana
6 UCLA
7 Illinois
7 Michigan State
8 Ohio State
8 Michigan
10 Rutgers (gets 1 of last 4 byes)
11 Maryland (one of last 4 in)
11 Oregon (one of last 4 in)

Others, on the Bubble:
Nebraska.......1st Team OUT
USC................5th Team OUT
IOWA..............7th Team OUT
Wisconsin.....8th Team OUT



The Full Bracket

www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: Does Duke have a straight shot to the No. 1 overall seed?

The Blue Devils have the talent -- and the schedule -- to make the selection committee's job easy.
www.espn.com
 
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Whether or not Lunardi used a complex algorithm or consulted a ouija board, I think that's a reasonable prediction. Iowa somewhere between 9th and 13th, missing out on the tourney.
There's certainly an opportunity to exceed that as the expanded B1G doesn't look overly challenging. Hawks need to show they can be better on the court against an opponent with a pulse.
 
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sober_teacher said:
Personally, I think Iowa gets in, comfortably.
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I'm with you on this, there's too much negativity on this board with the all the haltered for Fran that any success this team may have is against all that they wish for. Love it! This team will be one of the surprise teams in not only the Big but in the country.
 
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IllQChawk said:
I'm with you on this, there's too much negativity on this board with the all the haltered for Fran that any success this team may have is against all that they wish for. Love it! This team will be one of the surprise teams in not only the Big but in the country.
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I just like the roster makeup, the offseason chatter about the players going to Fran saying they wanted more emphasis on defense is encouraging (and frankly, I think the graduation of both Patrick and Krikke will lead to improvements on defense and rebounding by themselves).

And honestly, I kinda suspect not having a son on the team for the first time in 7 years will be somewhat liberating for the program as a whole and for Fran in particular.
 
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sober_teacher said:
Well, for one, Fran’s teams have consistently overachieved per pundit expectations.
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James Corden GIF by E!
 
sober_teacher said:
Feel free to fact-check, but it’s been several times now that they’ve predicted lower-half finished for the men, and it’s been awhile since they actually did.
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Is last year "awhile" or is finishing 7th in a 14 team league and missing the tourney your idea of "consistently overachieving"?

If you're projected 9th and finish 7th and miss the tourney (MSU was seeded 8th in the B1G tourney but made the NCAA), is that really overachieving in your mind? Really?

I mean ...Fran has averaged a 7th place finish in this league over the course of his career. I guess the good news is that now he only has to finish 9th in order to be considered "overachieving."

So he's got that going for him .... which is nice.

Plus, saying we're going to "surprise the country" means we're going to be a top 20 type team. It's one thing to claim you're going to finish 9th instead of 16th in the B1G, and quite another to claim you're going to be a NCAA 5 seed or better. That second claim needs a little more factual support than, "trust me, bro."
 
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AmericaNeedsMe said:
Is last year "awhile" or is finishing 7th in a 14 team league and missing the tourney your idea of "consistently overachieving"?

If you're projected 9th and finish 7th and miss the tourney (MSU was seeded 8th in the B1G tourney but made the NCAA), is that really overachieving in your mind? Really?

I mean ...Fran has averaged a 7th place finish in this league over the course of his career. I guess the good news is that now he only has to finish 9th in order to be considered "overachieving."

So he's got that going for him .... which is nice.
Click to expand...
He missed the tourney for the first time in several years, and that’s pretty much what most of us expected given the roster turnover.

I’m talking overachieving vs what the preseason predictions are, and yes, if they predicted 9th and we finished 7th, that is overachieving, whether you want to admit it or not.

Last year was about what I’d expected - we flirted with the bubble all year long, probably needed two more wins to be in; tho the bubble turned out to be harder than usual thanks to a number of upsets elsewhere that didn’t help the cause.

This year, I think the roster is good enough that we’re in, safely. That should mean an upper third or so finish on the conference.
 
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sober_teacher said:
He missed the tourney for the first time in several years, and that’s pretty much what most of us expected given the roster turnover.

I’m talking overachieving vs what the preseason predictions are, and yes, if they predicted 9th and we finished 7th, that is overachieving, whether you want to admit it or not.

Last year was about what I’d expected - we flirted with the bubble all year long, probably needed two more wins to be in; tho the bubble turned out to be harder than usual thanks to a number of upsets elsewhere that didn’t help the cause.

This year, I think the roster is good enough that we’re in, safely. That should mean an upper third or so finish on the conference.
Click to expand...
So Iowa is going to finish 6th or better in the B1G, and easily make the NCAA tourney because their roster is "good enough"?

Sorry, I'm just not picking up what you're laying down, brah.

Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon all have better rosters. Hell, Rutgers arguably has a better roster on paper. So does Maryland.

And it's not like we're playing some murderer's row non-con schedule that is going to boost our NET...just can't get there with you.
 
AmericaNeedsMe said:
So Iowa is going to finish 6th or better in the B1G, and easily make the NCAA tourney because their roster is "good enough"?

Sorry, I'm just not picking up what you're laying down, brah.

Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon all have better rosters. Hell, Rutgers arguably has a better roster on paper. So does Maryland.

And it's not like we're playing some murderer's row non-con schedule that is going to boost our NET...just can't get there with you.
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Well, having a better roster on paper means squat. How the conference schedules shake out will mean a lot also. Our non conference schedule isn’t as bad as some previous years actually, so it shouldn’t be the drag you’re implying either.

I think upper half for sure happens this year, possibly top third depending on how things shake out elsewhere as well. Conference season in the b10 I expect to be a madhouse with the new teams, travel, etc, and I don’t feel like we have the clear separation between #1 and the rest like we did last year.

And hey, it’s august 29th. I’ll save the pessimism for January.
 
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sober_teacher said:
In what universe is doing better than you’re expected to, not considered overachieving?
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In the universe where everyone knows that there is no practical difference whatsoever between finishing 7th or 9th in a 14 team league when you miss the tourney.

You know...this one.

Overachieving is when you are picked out of the top 5 and win the league or strongly challenge for it. Overachieving is when you're a 7+ seed in the conference tourney and win it or make the championship game....Nobody anywhere gives two shits about finishing 2 spots better in the middle of the pack than Andy Katz said you would. LMAO

You have to be kidding me with this. What are we even doing here?
 
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AmericaNeedsMe said:
In the universe where everyone knows that there is no practical difference whatsoever between finishing 7th or 9th in a 14 team league when you miss the tourney.

You know...this one.

Overachieving is when you are picked out of the top 5 and win the league or strongly challenge for it. Overachieving is when you're a 7+ seed in the conference tourney and win it or make the championship game....Nobody anywhere gives two shits about finishing 2 spots better in the middle of the pack than Andy Katz said you would. LMAO

You have to be kidding me with this. What are we even doing here?
Click to expand...
You tell me.

If this were a one-off you’d have a point. But you have to go back several years to find a year where the experts were right.

Me, I think we’ll be much better than these guys seem to think.
 
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sober_teacher said:
You tell me.

If this were a one-off you’d have a point. But you have to go back several years to find a year where the experts were right.

Me, I think we’ll be much better than these guys seem to think.
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What you don't understand is that in the practical sense, the experts have pretty much always been right.

Will we finish higher than 17th?

Probably.

Will anyone in the college basketball world outside of Iowa City care if it's 10th vs 17th?

No. And they shouldn't.

Will anyone in the college basketball world outside of Iowa City care if it's 8th vs 17th and we sneak into the tourney with (another) crap seed and are eliminated (again) the first weekend?

Not really. It will be a footnote at best if Fran's/Iowa's PR teams work overtime.

Fran has "overachieved" in the real sense of the word ONCE in his 15 year career at Iowa, and that was in '22 when they won the Big Ten Tournament as a 5 seed. Thank you, Keegan and JBo.
 
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AmericaNeedsMe said:
What you don't understand is that in the practical sense, the experts have pretty much always been right.

Will we finish higher than 17th?

Probably.

Will anyone in the college basketball world outside of Iowa City care if it's 10th vs 17th?

No. And they shouldn't.

Will anyone in the college basketball world outside of Iowa City care if it's 8th vs 17th and we sneak into the tourney with (another) crap seed and are eliminated (again) the first weekend?

Not really. It will be a footnote at best if Fran's/Iowa's PR teams work overtime.

Fran has "overachieved" in the real sense of the word ONCE in his 15 year career at Iowa, and that was in '22 when they won the Big Ten Tournament as a 5 seed. Thank you, Keegan and JBo.
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Pretty much always been right? Do me a favor. Save the prediction we’ve been discussing. Bring it back in April and we can discuss how close or not they got.

You have a very unique definition of what overachieving is.
 
sober_teacher said:
Pretty much always been right? Do me a favor. Save the prediction we’ve been discussing. Bring it back in April and we can discuss how close or not they got.

You have a very unique definition of what overachieving is.
Click to expand...
If you're projected in the middle of the pack and you finish in the middle of the pack, you didn't overachieve. Seems like a pretty plain and straightforward understanding of the term to me.

I get it. You're one of those types of fans who put great stock in those (tied for) 3d place finishes.

You can't accept the reality that no one else in the world knows, cares, or will ever remember such things. We've got fans on here claiming that Iowa was a "great basketball school" during Dean Oliver's time because we went to one sweet sixteen in his 4 years here. lol Believe me, I get it. You guys have to have unique definitions of terms in order to protect your delusions from the harsh reality of the outside world.

I'm happy to revisit this in April but if you're going to insist that Iowa finishing 10th instead of 17th is some significant overachievement, why bother? lol

See you in April after we "surprise the country." lol
 
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AmericaNeedsMe said:
If you're projected in the middle of the pack and you finish in the middle of the pack, you didn't overachieve. Seems like a pretty plain and straightforward understanding of the term to me.

I get it. You're one of those types of fans who put great stock in those (tied for) 3d place finishes.

You can't accept the reality that no one else in the world knows, cares, or will ever remember such things. We've got fans on here claiming that Iowa was a "great basketball school" during Dean Oliver's time because we went to one sweet sixteen in his 4 years here. lol Believe me, I get it. You guys have to have unique definitions of terms in order to protect your delusions from the harsh reality of the outside world.

I'm happy to revisit this in April but if you're going to insist that Iowa finishing 10th instead of 17th is some significant overachievement, why bother? lol

See you in April after we "surprise the country." lol
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This guy picked Iowa to finish what? 16th? If he’s right Iowa isn’t even going to the conference tournament. If I’m right and they finish upper half to top 1/3 of the conference, how is that not overachieving based on what this guy predicted? That’s probably meaning a difference of several wins, hardly insignificant.

Agree to disagree I guess.

Ultimately, what matters to me is that they’re in the tournament, preferably with a good seed/bracket. Aside from maybe winning the conference reg season title, the main thing that matters regarding conference standings is where whether or not they get a first or second round bye. Which also feeds into whether or not we’re safely in the tourney or not.
 
sober_teacher said:
This guy picked Iowa to finish what? 16th? If he’s right Iowa isn’t even going to the conference tournament. If I’m right and they finish upper half to top 1/3 of the conference, how is that not overachieving based on what this guy predicted? That’s probably meaning a difference of several wins, hardly insignificant.

Agree to disagree I guess.

Ultimately, what matters to me is that they’re in the tournament, preferably with a good seed/bracket. Aside from maybe winning the conference reg season title, the main thing that matters regarding conference standings is where whether or not they get a first or second round bye. Which also feeds into whether or not we’re safely in the tourney or not.
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If the general consensus is 16th and we finish 6th. Sure, we significantly out performed expectations. We were picked in the bottom third and finished in the top third. Ok ...

However, that's not the consensus. If you average all the predictions thus far, we come in about 11th. That's solid middle of the pack. If we finish 9th, we finished in the middle of the pack. That is certainly not outperforming expectations by any reasonable understanding of that term. Even finishing 6th would likely not constitute overachieving in view of the fact that 1 or 2 games is typically the difference between those 2 finishes.

You're right about making the tourney. If you don't win the league title or the conference title, making the tourney is the only thing that matters. No one will ever care or remember who finished 6th instead of 11th.

Also ran is also ran is also ran. No one cares.

I do predict that missing the conference tourney will carry a lot of negative notoriety even nationally, because it's so unique. People will remember who sucked enough to miss the tourney, and doing it multiple times will cement your program's reputation as being a bottom feeding basement dweller. So I'm looking forward to seeing that happen for Minnesota and pedo State.
 
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AmericaNeedsMe said:
If the general consensus is 16th and we finish 6th. Sure, we significantly out performed expectations. We were picked in the bottom third and finished in the top third. Ok ...

However, that's not the consensus. If you average all the predictions thus far, we come in about 11th. That's solid middle of the pack. If we finish 9th, we finished in the middle of the pack. That is certainly not outperforming expectations by any reasonable understanding of that term. Even finishing 6th would likely not constitute overachieving in view of the fact that 1 or 2 games is typically the difference between those 2 finishes.

You're right about making the tourney. If you don't win the league title or the conference title, making the tourney is the only thing that matters. No one will ever care or remember who finished 6th instead of 11th.

Also ran is also ran is also ran. No one cares.
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Sorry, but if you finish better than expected, that’s exceeding expectations. Maybe not by a lot, but it is.
 
Again, I know it's early, but in another thread we are talking about whether Iowa will really finish 16th or 17th in the B1G. In another thread, there's complaints that things are slow in this forum. And if you don't like this topic, just skip this thread for now.

Right now, Joe Junardi/ESPN essentially has Iowa 12th in the B1G.

Joe/ESPN projects the B1G getting 10 teams into the NCAA Tournament.

The 10 Teams & their Seed:
4 Purdue
6 Indiana
6 UCLA
6 Illinois
7 Michigan State
8 Michigan
9 Ohio State
9 Oregon
10 Maryland (gets 1 of last 4 byes)
11 Rutgers (one of last 4 in)

Others, on the Bubble:
Wisconsin...........1st Team OUT
IOWA...................3rd Team OUT
Northwestern....7th Team OUT


The Full Bracket

www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: Does Duke have a straight shot to the No. 1 overall seed?

The Blue Devils have the talent -- and the schedule -- to make the selection committee's job easy.
www.espn.com
 
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ObeseMuffins said:
We're gonna beat Iowa State this year.
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That should get some national attention unless by then Iowa state has fallen on their face. Right now based on current polls that would be a strong consideration for making the tournament . But nobody has played a consequential game yet
 
12th is a very reasonable prediction. I'd be at least somewhat surprised if they don't exceed that though. I'm guessing more likely 9th (range of 11th to 7th).
Until they actually, consistently play better team D in meaningful games that's their ceiling. All the talk about improvement on D we've heard for years without seeing it. Show me.
 
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The B1G will get 8-9 teams in. Iowa better beat some top 30 conference teams because our ooc schedule is a goddamn embarrassment.
 
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