With the 2024 election still months away, President Joe Biden has a narrow lead over former president Donald Trump in the polls.
Biden leads Trump 45 percent to 44 percent as of Tuesday, according to The Economist's polling average.
While Biden led Trump for much of 2023, the latest result is the first time the president has been ahead of his rival since September.
On March 12, Biden and Trump both officially secured the needed number of delegates to be considered their parties' presumptive nominees, setting up a rematch of the 2020 election.
Biden's gain in the polls comes despite his approval rating sinking to an all-time low after his State of the Union address earlier in March.
At least three polls conducted in March have indicated Biden would beat Trump in November's election.
A national survey by the Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund, conducted by Public Policy Polling and reported by The Hill, had Biden leading Trump 46 percent to 45 percent. However, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, meaning the two candidates were statistically tied.
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A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters conducted between March 7 and 13 found Biden would receive 39 percent of the vote, while Trump would receive 38 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave Biden 45 percent of the vote and Trump 44 percent. That poll was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
However, other polls have indicated that Trump could win back the White House in November. A poll of 1,367 registered voters by YouGov and The Economist conducted between March 10 and 12 had the former president receiving 44 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 42 percent. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
As he seeks to reclaim the White House, Trump faces criminal charges at the federal level and in four states. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and denied wrongdoing.
Trump and his lawyers have sought to delay the cases from proceeding to trial before the November election.
One New York case—which charges Trump with falsifying business records in connection with money paid to an adult-film actor during his 2016 campaign to bury allegations of extramarital sexual encounters—was due to begin on March 25. However, it has been delayed until at least mid-April.
With the election more than six months away, experts have said it is still too early to predict the outcome.
"At this stage of the campaign, I wouldn't ignore polls altogether, but I would take them with a grain of salt," Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
"Polls become more reliable predictors of actual outcomes as Election Day approaches. Generally speaking, polls conducted after Labor Day will be more telling," he continued.
Early polls can be useful "for tracking trends or reactions to campaign developments," Panagopoulos added. "Right now, the most we can probably infer from early poll trajectories is that it is likely to be a close race. That may not be very satisfying, but it's still something. It's anyone's game."
Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and the director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek, "An objective overview of the polls at this point suggests that Trump and Biden are in a virtual dead heat."
"What matters, of course, isn't national averages, but how the candidates are expected to fare in key battleground states," Gift said.
He added, "The latest Economist averages are good news for Biden, and he'll certainly take any lead he can get. Still, the lead is razor-thin and well within the margin of error."
Biden leads Trump 45 percent to 44 percent as of Tuesday, according to The Economist's polling average.
While Biden led Trump for much of 2023, the latest result is the first time the president has been ahead of his rival since September.
On March 12, Biden and Trump both officially secured the needed number of delegates to be considered their parties' presumptive nominees, setting up a rematch of the 2020 election.
Biden's gain in the polls comes despite his approval rating sinking to an all-time low after his State of the Union address earlier in March.
At least three polls conducted in March have indicated Biden would beat Trump in November's election.
A national survey by the Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund, conducted by Public Policy Polling and reported by The Hill, had Biden leading Trump 46 percent to 45 percent. However, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, meaning the two candidates were statistically tied.
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A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters conducted between March 7 and 13 found Biden would receive 39 percent of the vote, while Trump would receive 38 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave Biden 45 percent of the vote and Trump 44 percent. That poll was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent.
However, other polls have indicated that Trump could win back the White House in November. A poll of 1,367 registered voters by YouGov and The Economist conducted between March 10 and 12 had the former president receiving 44 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 42 percent. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
As he seeks to reclaim the White House, Trump faces criminal charges at the federal level and in four states. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and denied wrongdoing.
Trump and his lawyers have sought to delay the cases from proceeding to trial before the November election.
One New York case—which charges Trump with falsifying business records in connection with money paid to an adult-film actor during his 2016 campaign to bury allegations of extramarital sexual encounters—was due to begin on March 25. However, it has been delayed until at least mid-April.
With the election more than six months away, experts have said it is still too early to predict the outcome.
"At this stage of the campaign, I wouldn't ignore polls altogether, but I would take them with a grain of salt," Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.
"Polls become more reliable predictors of actual outcomes as Election Day approaches. Generally speaking, polls conducted after Labor Day will be more telling," he continued.
Early polls can be useful "for tracking trends or reactions to campaign developments," Panagopoulos added. "Right now, the most we can probably infer from early poll trajectories is that it is likely to be a close race. That may not be very satisfying, but it's still something. It's anyone's game."
Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and the director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek, "An objective overview of the polls at this point suggests that Trump and Biden are in a virtual dead heat."
"What matters, of course, isn't national averages, but how the candidates are expected to fare in key battleground states," Gift said.
He added, "The latest Economist averages are good news for Biden, and he'll certainly take any lead he can get. Still, the lead is razor-thin and well within the margin of error."
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