Kenpom 22-23

[HawkAssassin]

https://kenpom.com/index.php

B1G
12 - Indiana
23- Iowa
25 - Purdue
26 - Michigan
31 - Michigan St
32 - Ohio St
33 - Illinois
46 - Penn St
50 - Rutgers
55 - Wisconsin
56 - Maryland
70 - Northwestern
108 - Nebraska
109 - Minnesota

Kinda expected the top 7/8/9 teams to all be bunched together. Not surprised that Indiana would be the favorite, but am surprised by the margin they're favored by.

Notable Non Con
Seton Hall - 48
Clemson - 60
TCU - 16
Cal - 146
Georgia Tech - 117
Duke - 15
Iowa St - 62

 

[Herklejerk]

https://kenpom.com/index.php

B1G
12 - Indiana
23- Iowa
25 - Purdue
26 - Michigan
31 - Michigan St
32 - Ohio St
33 - Illinois
46 - Penn St
50 - Rutgers
55 - Wisconsin
56 - Maryland
70 - Northwestern
108 - Nebraska
109 - Minnesota

Kinda expected the top 7/8/9 teams to all be bunched together. Not surprised that Indiana would be the favorite, but am surprised by the margin they're favored by.

Notable Non Con
Seton Hall - 48
Clemson - 60
TCU - 16
Cal - 146
Georgia Tech - 117
Duke - 15
Iowa St - 62

You wouldn’t be surprised if you understood how Kenpom works.

Expect the B10 ranking to look much different in mid Jan.

 

[HawkAssassin]

You wouldn’t be surprised if you understood how Kenpom works.

Expect the B10 ranking to look much different in mid Jan.

His preseason rankings are based heavily on recent success which is why I'm surprised at Indiana being a clear favorite. They've been average-ish for around 9 years now in his rankings. Top 30 only once.

Sure it'll look different. Nothing preseason will ever be 100% accurate.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Injuries are a factor that Kenpom doesn’t have yet.

 

[BustingNarratives]

Wow, that seems a little high for the Hawks but let’s hope it pans out.

 

[bowlhawk]

Wow, that seems a little high for the Hawks but let’s hope it pans out.

20 - previous 4 year avg KenPom ratings
10 - previous 2 year avg KenPom ratings

 

[Herklejerk]

His preseason rankings are based heavily on recent success which is why I'm surprised at Indiana being a clear favorite. They've been average-ish for around 9 years now in his rankings. Top 30 only once.

Sure it'll look different. Nothing preseason will ever be 100% accurate.

Returning talent is weighted heavily. I would bet a lot of money right now that Indiana finishes no better than third in the conference. I would bet a lot of money that Purdue doesn’t finish in the top 6.

 

[combes]

Kenpom uses returning player production to make first prediction. It changes a ton after the first month or so.

Illinois only has four returning players and one part time starter.

 

[SSG T]

If you look at returning % of minutes and ORtg, it makes sense Iowa is really high, especially offensively.

ORtg of the regulars from end of last season...

Kris - 119.6
PMac - 111.5
Tony - 111.2
Payton - 116.6
Ahron - 100.3
Filip - 112.6
CMac - 125.4

Those 7 plus Bowen will play most of the minutes, Dix will likely get spot minutes at the start. That's a fantastic offensive team.

 

[HawkAssassin]

Returning talent is weighted heavily. I would bet a lot of money right now that Indiana finishes no better than third in the conference. I would bet a lot of money that Purdue doesn’t finish in the top 6.

Obviously, but then one and done schools wouldn’t rank well preseason. Illinois would be even lower if program success wasn’t a component. No one’s wrong here.

Indiana is probably overrated sure. Their offense actually got worse last year. 22nd in offense this year seems generous. Bringing their offense rating down to where it really is brings them back to the pack.

Purdue has won with Joe Schmoe at guard before because that’s not what their offense demands. But their upside is limited.

 

[perryhawk]

If you look at returning % of minutes and ORtg, it makes sense Iowa is really high, especially offensively.

ORtg of the regulars from end of last season...

Kris - 119.6
PMac - 111.5
Tony - 111.2
Payton - 116.6
Ahron - 100.3
Filip - 112.6
CMac - 125.4

Those 7 plus Bowen will play most of the minutes, Dix will likely get spot minutes at the start. That's a fantastic offensive team.

Can you explain what those numbers are? Is it an efficiency per something?@)(?

 

[BBHawk]

Can you explain what those numbers are? Is it an efficiency per something?@)(?

This page has info from last season with ratings. Look at the "Advanced" section lower on the page: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa/2022.html

 

[SSG T]

Can you explain what those numbers are? Is it an efficiency per something?@)(?

It's the Offensive ratings for Iowa's returning players from last season.

For comparison, Keegan was 131.2 last season, and Luka's last 2 years were 123.9 and 117. Anything above 110 is really good.

Granted, usage is important too. If your usage is 25% or more of the team's possessions, it's pretty good when combined with a high ORtg.

Here's Kenpom's description. It's kind of old and he's updated some formulas, but it's still a good description

https://kenpom.com/blog/offensive-ratingpossession-usage/

 

[HawkHoops80]

Obviously, but then one and done schools wouldn’t rank well preseason. Illinois would be even lower if program success wasn’t a component. No one’s wrong here.

Indiana is probably overrated sure. Their offense actually got worse last year. 22nd in offense this year seems generous. Bringing their offense rating down to where it really is brings them back to the pack.

Purdue has won with Joe Schmoe at guard before because that’s not what their offense demands. But their upside is limited.

Yeah it's a mix of returning production, incoming recruiting ranks, recent success, and head coach prestige. I think a reason why Duke is lower than I would have expected is because of the coaching component.
KenPom preseason is a decent measure, but he admits it has a lot of flaws. Want to know a surprisingly better predictor? The preseason AP Poll--it's often one of the better tools to use to pick brackets come tournament time and is heavily used for Vegas lines throughout the year.

 

[HawkHoops80]

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics, home of the Bayesian Performance Rating

evanmiya.com

Another analytics site released their preseason rankings this afternoon. Iowa at #12 overall and top of the Big Ten. #2 offense and #52 defense. He has Kris as the #7 player in the country and also has Patrick in the top 50.

 

[Franisdaman]

Kenpom also has Iowa going 20-10 overall and 12-8 in the Big Ten.

The 2nd Emerald Coast Classic game is game 31. Kenpom obviously isn't able to predict that game because he doesn't know the opponent.

Also, not sure 12-8 would get Iowa a 2nd place conference finish, even though he has Iowa as the 2nd best conference team.

 

[Franisdaman]

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics, home of the Bayesian Performance Rating

evanmiya.com

Another analytics site released their preseason rankings this afternoon. Iowa at #12 overall and top of the Big Ten. #2 offense and #52 defense. He has Kris as the #7 player in the country and also has Patrick in the top 50.

If Iowa finishes with a top 52 defense, that would be something.

Iowa ended last season with the #4 offense & the #80 defense in the nation.

Here is how Iowa finished in Kenpom adjusted defense the past four years:

2022- 80
2021- 75
2020- 97
2019- 111

Out of 358 teams.

 

[Herklejerk]

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics, home of the Bayesian Performance Rating

evanmiya.com

Another analytics site released their preseason rankings this afternoon. Iowa at #12 overall and top of the Big Ten. #2 offense and #52 defense. He has Kris as the #7 player in the country and also has Patrick in the top 50.

Pretty worthless w/r/t newcomers. Rates Connor and Patrick as the 9th and 10th best players in the B10, for instance.

Now … I like Connor but…lol. Like most of these nerd boxes, it won’t have much predictive value until about mid January.

 

[HawkHoops80]

Only 3 Big Ten teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll: Indiana (13), Michigan (22), Illinois (23)

Other notables: Duke 7, TCU 14

 

[HawkHoops80]

Pretty worthless w/r/t newcomers. Rates Connor and Patrick as the 9th and 10th best players in the B10, for instance.

Now … I like Connor but…lol. Like most of these nerd boxes, it won’t have much predictive value until about mid January.

IMO Evan's site is the best when it comes to looking up transfers. I spent a lot of time flipping through his transfer ratings this spring. He has Matthew Mayer as the fourth best player in the Big Ten FWIW. Agree on the freshmen being lower to start but that's true of every analytics site.
His rating system has always been high on Connor. It's pretty easy to see why once you read his methodology:

"BPR quantifies the value of each player to his team on both offense and defense. A player's ratings incorporate his individual efficiency statistics, along with his impact on the court for his team, which is assessed by looking at how successful his team was in every possession he played. These ratings account for the strength of all other players on the floor with that player in each of his possessions that he played. Each player has an Offensive BPR and a Defensive BPR, which are added together to make the player's overall BPR. Very good players will have higher positive offensive and defensive ratings, with the average D1 player having an Offensive BPR and Defensive BPR of 0."

 

[HawkHoops80]

View embedded media

Only 3 Big Ten teams ranked in the preseason AP Poll: Indiana (13), Michigan (22), Illinois (23)

Other notables: Duke 7, TCU 14

Others receiving votes: Texas A&M 112, UConn 101, Miami 66, Purdue 56, Saint Louis 36, Michigan St. 35, Florida St. 32, Xavier 29, Wyoming 25, Ohio St. 23, Iowa 13, Rutgers 4, Southern Cal 3, Florida 3, Toledo 1, UAB 1, Memphis 1, Virginia Tech 1, Notre Dame 1.

 

[HawkAssassin]

Yeah it's a mix of returning production, incoming recruiting ranks, recent success, and head coach prestige. I think a reason why Duke is lower than I would have expected is because of the coaching component.
KenPom preseason is a decent measure, but he admits it has a lot of flaws. Want to know a surprisingly better predictor? The preseason AP Poll--it's often one of the better tools to use to pick brackets come tournament time and is heavily used for Vegas lines throughout the year.

Yeah, the preseason AP poll in a weird way can be more indicative than the actual poll during the year. So much of the polling during the year is based on timing (when teams lose, etc.) rather than their overall resume or how good they are. And everyone loses multiple games in basketball so there's a lot of movement. Basketball isn't like football where every loss means the world is crumbling down.

 

[perryhawk]

Others receiving votes: Texas A&M 112, UConn 101, Miami 66, Purdue 56, Saint Louis 36, Michigan St. 35, Florida St. 32, Xavier 29, Wyoming 25, Ohio St. 23, Iowa 13, Rutgers 4, Southern Cal 3, Florida 3, Toledo 1, UAB 1, Memphis 1, Virginia Tech 1, Notre Dame 1.

I get the feeling that the conference might be down BUT, I also think that nationally the perception of the B10 suffers from the lack of Final Fours and National Championships. In recent years the conference has done really well in terms of the B10-ACC and the G Games....but not the NCAA tournament.

 

[paladinhawk]

If you look at returning % of minutes and ORtg, it makes sense Iowa is really high, especially offensively.

ORtg of the regulars from end of last season...

CMac - 125.4

It's not April 1st... Did CMac really have the highest rating?

 

[SSG T]

It's not April 1st... Did CMac really have the highest rating?

Yes

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

I get the feeling that the conference might be down BUT, I also think that nationally the perception of the B10 suffers from the lack of Final Fours and National Championships. In recent years the conference has done really well in terms of the B10-ACC and the G Games....but not the NCAA tournament.

I am still puzzled by how poorly the B1G has done in the dance the past few years. Maybe they did not have a championship team, but I expected many more teams to win 2 or 3 games.

 

[BBHawk]

I am still puzzled by how poorly the B1G has done in the dance the past few years. Maybe they did not have a championship team, but I expected many more teams to win 2 or 3 games.

I really think it has to do with the officiating in the B1G being so bad. That and the ball they used in the tourney last year. 😉

 

[owenhawk]

I really think it has to do with the officiating in the B1G being so bad. That and the ball they used in the tourney last year. 😉

The Big 10 officiating has not done Big 10 teams in the tourney any favors for quite a while.