Keys to victory vs. Wisconsin

[BigOHawk]

1. Essentially, this is a loser leaves town matchup. Uphill climb for either team if they lose.
2. Injury report is huge today - will Kittle/Myers/Croston be close to 100%? If not, are we better to play Fant/Paulsen/Render at 100%?
3. At some point, either this week or next, this gauntlet schedule will catch up with Wisky. I don't think they can continue to get up off the mat every single week, especially with this being a sandwich game before Nebraska. Either the Hawks or Huskers will beat Wisky IMO
4. Emotional game last week, OT and now an early game on the road, may help Iowa
5. Iowa is on a bye after this, I think we see the kitchen sink in playcalls and effort
6. This isn't a traditional Wisky spread, running QB team obviously. No Tanner McEvoy, no zone read with a QB killing us on 3rd and 9 with a long run. Stop the run, make that young lefty beat us with his arm, which I don’t think he can do time and time again if we stop Clement. Just have to watch jet sweeps
7. How to attack a 3-4 defense? Well, IMO you can scrap the waggle plays, roll outs and long developing pass plays, we’ll see too many blitzes from the LB and they will come from all different angles. What works? I think Iowa should go heavy, unbalanced line and double down on all DL’s. Pass plays should be slants, sticks, etc. Run plays should be 75%, 25% passing
8. Des King will be huge in this game, both on D and special teams. If Iowa is to win, he’s going to have to flip field position and/or come up with some big defensive plays, I think he can do it
9. Continue to run out of the gun and 3 WR sets, I think spreading the field will help
10. I believe you'll see more Daniels than Wadley, especially on short yardage situations and red zone. Well....maybe a Wadley wheel route, that would be nice. Would be cool to see flex Akrum out to splint end with Fant there too, make those LB's cover and not blitz!

 

[David1979]

Agree totally. Keys to playing Wisconsin are always stop the run, establish the run on offense, play good clean football (low penalties and win the TO battle).

 

[BigOHawk]

If we can stop Clement, their QB will be forced to pass and he's a pocket guy so a bit unlike the past Wisky QB's (McEvoy, Tolzien, Stocco, Sorgi, Bollinger). Our corners are very good tacklers so King and Mabin will be looking for that jet sweep.

 

[Im4Iowa]

1. Essentially, this is a loser leaves town matchup. Uphill climb for either team if they lose.
2. Injury report is huge today - will Kittle/Myers/Croston be close to 100%? If not, are we better to play Fant/Paulsen/Render at 100%?
3. At some point, either this week or next, this gauntlet schedule will catch up with Wisky. I don't think they can continue to get up off the mat every single week, especially with this being a sandwich game before Nebraska. Either the Hawks or Huskers will beat Wisky IMO
4. Emotional game last week, OT and now an early game on the road, may help Iowa
5. Iowa is on a bye after this, I think we see the kitchen sink in playcalls and effort
6. This isn't a traditional Wisky spread, running QB team obviously. No Tanner McEvoy, no zone read with a QB killing us on 3rd and 9 with a long run. Stop the run, make that young lefty beat us with his arm, which I don’t think he can do time and time again if we stop Clement. Just have to watch jet sweeps
7. How to attack a 3-4 defense? Well, IMO you can scrap the waggle plays, roll outs and long developing pass plays, we’ll see too many blitzes from the LB and they will come from all different angles. What works? I think Iowa should go heavy, unbalanced line and double down on all DL’s. Pass plays should be slants, sticks, etc. Run plays should be 75%, 25% passing
8. Des King will be huge in this game, both on D and special teams. If Iowa is to win, he’s going to have to flip field position and/or come up with some big defensive plays, I think he can do it
9. Continue to run out of the gun and 3 WR sets, I think spreading the field will help
10. I believe you'll see more Daniels than Wadley, especially on short yardage situations and red zone
11. I missed chunks of the game last week, was Mitchell in at all?

I agree with all of that, good post. One thing I want to add is that I think you may see more of Wadley this game. He has a unique ability to make the first person miss and I think that's huge in a game against an elite defense. If he makes that lb miss, he's off to the races. Plus, as good as Wisc is, Im not sure a lb can cover Wadley out of the back field on a wheel route.

 

[David1979]

Looking at Wisconsin's defensive stats. They are really good but they actually aren't as good as last year and Iowa managed to win that game. Hornibrook will throw interceptions too and if King gets one it could be a defensive score.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Honest question... what was the last huge game Iowa won? Where both teams felt like they belonged in the Top 25 with both still playing for a conference championship. Am I remiss to go back to 2009 @ MSU with McNutt / @ PSU with Clayborn?

Last year's game with Wisconsin came too early to have much anticipation, IMO; and I feel like we've always fallen short in recent years (hence why programs like Wiscy/MSU have grown to national prominence... by winning those games against us).

 

[ScoutRefugee]

1. Essentially, this is a loser leaves town matchup. Uphill climb for either team if they lose.
2. Injury report is huge today - will Kittle/Myers/Croston be close to 100%? If not, are we better to play Fant/Paulsen/Render at 100%?
3. At some point, either this week or next, this gauntlet schedule will catch up with Wisky. I don't think they can continue to get up off the mat every single week, especially with this being a sandwich game before Nebraska. Either the Hawks or Huskers will beat Wisky IMO
4. Emotional game last week, OT and now an early game on the road, may help Iowa
5. Iowa is on a bye after this, I think we see the kitchen sink in playcalls and effort
6. This isn't a traditional Wisky spread, running QB team obviously. No Tanner McEvoy, no zone read with a QB killing us on 3rd and 9 with a long run. Stop the run, make that young lefty beat us with his arm, which I don’t think he can do time and time again if we stop Clement. Just have to watch jet sweeps
7. How to attack a 3-4 defense? Well, IMO you can scrap the waggle plays, roll outs and long developing pass plays, we’ll see too many blitzes from the LB and they will come from all different angles. What works? I think Iowa should go heavy, unbalanced line and double down on all DL’s. Pass plays should be slants, sticks, etc. Run plays should be 75%, 25% passing
8. Des King will be huge in this game, both on D and special teams. If Iowa is to win, he’s going to have to flip field position and/or come up with some big defensive plays, I think he can do it
9. Continue to run out of the gun and 3 WR sets, I think spreading the field will help
10. I believe you'll see more Daniels than Wadley, especially on short yardage situations and red zone
11. I missed chunks of the game last week, was Mitchell in at all?

I really like the idea of going big with an offset line.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Honest question... what was the last huge game Iowa won? Where both teams felt like they belonged in the Top 25 with both still playing for a conference championship. Am I remiss to go back to 2009 @ MSU with McNutt / @ PSU with Clayborn?

Last year's game with Wisconsin came too early to have much anticipation, IMO; and I feel like we've always fallen short in recent years (hence why programs like Wiscy/MSU have grown to national prominence... by winning those games against us).

Last year's game against Wisconsin was our 5th of the season. In 2009, Penn State was our 4th game. So I'm not sure your criteria makes sense.

With that said, when we beat MSU in 2010 we still had a chance at the Big 10 title, and last year we beat Northwestern when they were ranked and only had one loss.

 

[BigOHawk]

I agree with all of that, good post. One thing I want to add is that I think you may see more of Wadley this game. He has a unique ability to make the first person miss and I think that's huge in a game against an elite defense. If he makes that lb miss, he's off to the races. Plus, as good as Wisc is, Im not sure a lb can cover Wadley out of the back field on a wheel route.

Great point, even thought Daniels is a more power back, if Wadley gets loose look out! Maybe we can give Wisky a taste of their own medicine with LB's guarding WRs/RB's to create mismatches. Ugh...won't forget Gordon torching Lomax a few years ago, of ALL guys not to guard on a key 3rd down.
Another one I forgot is CJB will be huge given his experience and intelligence getting us into proper plays and audibles.

 

[LuteHawk]

The Hawkeye defense is the strongest part of our
game plan. They need to bring their best effort for
60 minutes. Our offense hopefully can control the
time of possession with a good running game.
We will need both Daniels and Wadley at their best.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

We cannot afford offensive penalties. Our offense really struggles if we fall behind the sticks because we struggle to pass protect for long developing routes. Offensive penalties were extremely costly against NDSU and Northwestern. If we play a clean game, we have a shot at putting up 17+ points which hopefully will be enough to win.

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

Really nice writeup, BigOHawk! thanks for the post, here.

Hawkeyes need to play a clean, strong, energy-packed game
& score more points than sconny.

GO HAWKS !

 

[BigOHawk]

Thanks IowaNice! Gotta good feeling about this one, just love this time of year. Bit of early morning chill, fall colors, Hawk football and a chance to surge up in the West Division and get some mojo back we lost to NW and NDState. Will be close either way IMO.

 

[BigOHawk]

Great write up of unbalanced OL found here and what I was reading. Iowa should use some of this Saturday to create schematic advantages in the running game.
http://assets.espn.go.com/ncf/columns/davie/1463998.html

 

[nu2u]

As usual, it basically comes down to execution and turnovers. Football coaches are mocked for saying this but it is true.

Of course, no two opponents are the same so you have different game plans each week.

Overview: I believe both teams will have some success running the ball. Each team will have a couple of big gainers but in the end, I foresee the ground games essentially playing out to a draw. The winner of this game will have more success passing.

So, in addition to execution and turnovers, I believe the biggest keys for Iowa are:

On offense: Pass protection. If (as I believe) the pass game will decide who wins, then protecting the pocket is of utmost importance. CJB will need time, If he gets it, I like Iowa's chances. I hope they go shotgun, I also will be looking for WR slants, quick out routes and more passes to RBs to offset Wisconsin blitzes. Mitchell and Wadley might be able to prosper with dump offs.

On defense: Pressure the QB. DEs need to get there. Mix it up with blitzes. Contain the pocket. Force bad throws or make him eat it.

Nutshell: CJ Beathard vs. Alex Hornibrook. In big rivalry games, QB performance is critical to a win. It has added importance in the B10W title chase. This game matches senior Beathard against freshman Hornibrook. CJ is more experienced and playing at home. Hornibrook is less experienced and playing in a hostile rivalry game. On paper, QB advantage to Iowa. Question is whether it will manifest.

One more key: Field position. BigOHawk mentioned King - I agree that Iowa's return game could be a big, big factor.

 

[JLDHAWK]

First one to 17 pts wins

 

[Qued18]

Turnovers
Safety's have to be Johnny on the spot..don't get out of position

I think this is going to be a poor mans version of last years B1G championship game

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Last year's game against Wisconsin was our 5th of the season. In 2009, Penn State was our 4th game. So I'm not sure your criteria makes sense.

With that said, when we beat MSU in 2010 we still had a chance at the Big 10 title, and last year we beat Northwestern when they were ranked and only had one loss.

That is very fair - I'm working off memory and had the impression that we have been struggling in these games (specifically against teams like MSU/Wisc). The criteria certainly isn't scientific, so it may not be completely consistent. Just trying to see if there were any games I was forgetting about. I feel like the 10-6 game last year was key to a B1G championship, but we didn't really know what we had, yet. 2009, we were coming off a season of improvement that ended 9-4, excitement was high, etc.

 

[bucky44]

Looking at Wisconsin's defensive stats. They are really good but they actually aren't as good as last year and Iowa managed to win that game.

The defense is at least as good, if not better than last year and defensive efficiency stats reflect that. Raw ypg and ppg stats don't take opponent into consideration. Both OSU and Michigan are better offenses than any Wisconsin saw last year and they fared pretty darn well without a couple key pieces.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

Last year, the general thought prior to Wiscy was "If we win this one, we may be on the path to a special season".

In '09 vs PSU, that game was built up big time. We had knocked PSU out of NC contention late the previous season, it was a night white out game, and there was so much tension. It seemed like a game of more import than last year's Wiscy game.

The '10 MSU was a big game. MSU was coming in...undefeated? They were the darlings of the conference at the time and we absolutely manhandled them in a game that was thought to be of huge impact on the title race.

 

[David1979]

The defense is at least as good, if not better than last year and defensive efficiency stats reflect that. Raw ypg and ppg stats don't take opponent into consideration. Both OSU and Michigan are better offenses than any Wisconsin saw last year and they fared pretty darn well without a couple key pieces.

Actually Michigan offense isn't that good. They are average. OSU is good but
other teams they have faced are pretty bad offensively.

 

[Vroom_C14]

If we can stop Clement, their QB will be forced to pass and he's a pocket guy so a bit unlike the past Wisky QB's (McEvoy, Tolzien, Stocco, Sorgi, Bollinger). Our corners are very good tacklers so King and Mabin will be looking for that jet sweep.

If he is in the pocket, we better send people - don't let him sit there and read the paper.

 

[Hawkgrl2015]

Sounds like Kittle is out. Time for Fant to step up and have a big game!

 

[jhawkinaz]

solid analysis, thanks for the good post. Nice to have a good post with some discussion.

For me, I just want to see us take chances offensively. If we go down, go down swinging! Not saying it has to be all-out crazy, but pick your moments and go for it when they present themselves.

This could be a real swing game to get things rolling!

I would only add that I think Wisky will probably still leave town whether they win or lose.

 

[ichawk24]

1. Score more points than we allow

 

[BigOHawk]

Yep, Kittle is probably out but reading the full article perhaps he's not 100% ruled out based on Kirk's comments "doing a lot better than Saturday," and "we'll see, just a matter of what he can do."
Good stuff in this thread, happy to talk strategy and Xs and Os vs. spats about politics and Trump/Clinton!

 

[BigOHawk]

Agreed on making Hornibrook (sp?) uncomfortable back there. We've tried this before, especially with Leidner last year at Kinnick, rush 4, drop 7, however he picked us apart. We'd better bring pressure, hopefully with the front 4 and time some blitzes, even the best corners can't cover for 5-7 seconds. I think Kinnick is ready to explode, we need a score/momentum early!

 

[83Hawk]

Iowa needs to control time of possession, if possible. Can't have a bunch of 3 and outs. If they do, Wisconsin will be running all over them by the middle of the 3rd quarter.

Another thing...I have only watched Wisconsin once (vs OSU) but noticed they have a LB that occasionally takes a running head start to the LOS anticipating the snap count. If we can catch them offsides a few times that could make them play "honest".

 

[bucky44]

Actually Michigan offense isn't that good. They are average. OSU is good but
other teams they have faced are pretty bad offensively.

Wait, what? Michigan's offense is average? They aren't quite elite offensively, but you aren't 2nd in the NCAA in ppg if your offense is simply average.

Also, you can certainly do worse than Akron and LSU offensively. Those schools would be two of the best offenses Iowa has seen to date. You're right about MSU and Georgia State though. Last year over half of Wisconsin's games were against offenses of MSU and GSU's caliber.

 

[David1979]

Wait, what? Michigan's offense is average? They aren't quite elite offensively, but you aren't 2nd in the NCAA in ppg if your offense is simply average.

Also, you can certainly do worse than Akron and LSU offensively. Those schools would be two of the best offenses Iowa has seen to date. You're right about MSU and Georgia State though. Last year over half of Wisconsin's games were against offenses of MSU and GSU's caliber.

Look who the put up points against. Hawaii, Rutgers etc.

 

[David1979]

With Kittle, Croston and Myers likely being out I don't even want to watch this game. They might as well just punt on first down.

 

[bucky44]

Look who the put up points against. Hawaii, Rutgers etc.

In regards to both efficiency and the raw numbers, Wisconsin and Colorado are both top 15 defenses. UCF is around 35 and PSU is around 50. I would assume most P5 teams have faced a similar level of competition defensively.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

In regards to both efficiency and the raw numbers, Wisconsin and Colorado are both top 15 defenses. UCF is around 35 and PSU is around 50. I would assume most P5 teams have faced a similar level of competition defensively.

Michigan is not an average offensive team. That is absolutely silly.

 

[crazyhorse63]

The pink locker rooms will save the day

 

[JDG]

Good luck and I hope it is an EXTREMELY physical and punishing game.

 

[Packer54]

Worries me we did not face Clement last year and he is looking real good.