The "Iowa State's Super Bowl" is sooooo overblown. If you do nothing more than look at the two teams' end-of-season records and guess that the better team won, you'd be right most of the time.
- ISU won the game and had a better record 3 times (1999, 2000, 2012)
- Iowa won and had a better record 9 times (2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2016...plus this season is on pace to be #10)
- ISU won three games when Iowa and ISU ended the season with the same record (2001, 2005, 2011)
- Iowa won one game when Iowa and ISU ended the season with the same record (2017)
That accounts for 17 of the 20 games with no upsets of note, leaving 2002, 2007 and 2014:
- 2002: These teams basically flipped scripts. ISU started the season red-hot, winning 6 of their first 7 and carrying a #9 national ranking into the second half of their season when things went south. Iowa lost a heartbreaker to ISU early due to 3rd quarter turnovers and then proceeded to improve vastly, ending the season 11-1 and ranked in the top 10. One could argue at the point in which this game was played, the outcome here was not an upset, even though Iowa ended the season as clearly the better team.
- 2007: This was probably the first true upset during the Ferentz years, although this was still an Iowa team that lost at home to Western Michigan in the season finale to miss out on a bowl game. ISU went 3-9 to Iowa's 6-6.
- 2014: Another upset - a 2-10 ISU team beat what would eventually be a 7-6 Iowa team
So, clearly I'm not a believer in the "it's their Super Bowl" excuse. With 2002 as an unusual game given where both teams went over the season's last month, we see that ISU has pulled a couple relatively minor upsets (2007 & 2014 were not great Iowa teams) and that ISU has fared slightly better when the two teams are even.....beyond that, the game has mostly been a sign of which team is better.