Last year could have been 11-1; this year?

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

As we consider what the Hawkeyes' 2018 record might be, a look at last year seems at least somewhat instructive.

From an Iowa perspective, the Hawkeyes easily could have beaten MSU (17-10 loss), NW (17-10 loss) PSU (21-19 loss on final play) and Purdue. The Wisconsin beat down was even competitive until the third quarter. But that ended up being an absolute defeat.

So instead of 7-5, Iowa was within four or five plays of being 11-1 last season against a tougher schedule than in 2018. And in 2018 Stanley comes in with great experience and lots of success and with what should be an improved receiving corps and what should be a wiser OC.

Without going into all the other details, I think it's reasonable to believe Iowa could go at least 11-1 in 2018, win the West, and be in line for a CFP spot by winning the Big Ten championship game.

Naturally, many things--including good health--will be required for that to happen, but after going 12-0 in 2015 and coming so close to 11-1 last season with a rookie QB and OC, there are reasons for optimism.

And I believe the Hawkeyes will take down the Badgers in Iowa City, setting the stage for winning the West. The lone loss would most likely come at PSU, but I don't see winning there as impossible.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

It seems Iowa is always a few plays from a much better or much worse record in any given year. It's what makes being a Hawkeye fan so aggravating and interesting all at the same time.

I think the 2018 Hawks have a lot of potential. If the LBers come up to speed quickly and a few things go our way, it could be a really great season. If the LBers just aren't up to the task and/or injuries and bad luck strike, it could be a really disappointing season. 11-1 isn't out of the question, but neither is 6-6.

 

[FreddyUI]

It seems Iowa is always a few plays from a much better or much worse record in any given year. It's what makes being a Hawkeye fan so aggravating and interesting all at the same time.

I think the 2018 Hawks have a lot of potential. If the LBers come up to speed quickly and a few things go our way, it could be a really great season. If the LBers just aren't up to the task and/or injuries and bad luck strike, it could be a really disappointing season. 11-1 isn't out of the question, but neither is 6-6.

I agree, that is what made 2015 so special. We won the close ones.

 

[grayhair81]

And if I had just gotten the other 5 numbers on Powerball, I would be a multi-millionaire.
Iowa did well to get to 7-5 with their offense last year. If they had found a way to win those games they barely lost, do you think they would have been able to compete with a top-5 team in a bowl game?

I am hoping for 9-3 this year. In reality, anything between 4-8 and 12-0 is possible.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

And if I had just gotten the other 5 numbers on Powerball, I would be a multi-millionaire.
Iowa did well to get to 7-5 with their offense last year. If they had found a way to win those games they barely lost, do you think they would have been able to compete with a top-5 team in a bowl game?

I am hoping for 9-3 this year. In reality, anything between 4-8 and 12-0 is possible.

Nate Stanley was quoted today as saying he thinks the Hawkeyes should have won at least three more games last year. Take it up with him.

 

[bumpstock]

Soooo many factors involved. With a real breakout season by NS, if the WRs catch on, minimum overall injuries...10-2.

 

[Hock-I]

It seems Iowa is always a few plays from a much better or much worse record in any given year. It's what makes being a Hawkeye fan so aggravating and interesting all at the same time.

I think the 2018 Hawks have a lot of potential. If the LBers come up to speed quickly and a few things go our way, it could be a really great season. If the LBers just aren't up to the task and/or injuries and bad luck strike, it could be a really disappointing season. 11-1 isn't out of the question, but neither is 6-6.

Perfect summary of the Hawkeye program.

 

[grayhair81]

Nate Stanley was quoted today as saying he thinks the Hawkeyes should have won at least three more games last year. Take it up with him.

Have you ever talked to a player who didn't think they should have/could have won every game they played? 8-5 was a great accomplishment for that team. I think the offense can be considerably better this year. I am not as confident about the defense. 9-3 would be fine by me.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Have you ever talked to a player who didn't think they should have/could have won every game they played? 8-5 was a great accomplishment for that team. I think the offense can be considerably better this year. I am not as confident about the defense. 9-3 would be fine by me.

I'm pretty sure Iowa's basketball team doesn't think it should have won many, if any, more games than it did last year. And besides, despite what we've been getting from our brilliant administration in Washington, opinions are only as good as the FACTS they are based on. The fact is, Iowa lost 17-10 in OT to NW. The fact is Iowa lost 17-10 @ MSU, and in both games Iowa had plenty of chances to win. Then there's the fact that if any one of at least a dozen plays had gone differently--including the very last one--Iowa would have beaten Penn State. So the facts would seem to support the opinion that Iowa could have--if not should have--won at least 3, probably 4 (Purdue at home) more games last season.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

And if I had just gotten the other 5 numbers on Powerball, I would be a multi-millionaire.
Iowa did well to get to 7-5 with their offense last year. If they had found a way to win those games they barely lost, do you think they would have been able to compete with a top-5 team in a bowl game?

I am hoping for 9-3 this year. In reality, anything between 4-8 and 12-0 is possible.

Sure. Why not? #4 Penn State beat Iowa on the last play of the game. I think we all remember what happened when we played #6.

 

[grayhair81]

I'm pretty sure Iowa's basketball team doesn't think it should have won many, if any, more games than it did last year. And besides, despite what we've been getting from our brilliant administration in Washington, opinions are only as good as the FACTS they are based on. The fact is, Iowa lost 17-10 in OT to NW. The fact is Iowa lost 17-10 @ MSU, and in both games Iowa had plenty of chances to win. Then there's the fact that if any one of at least a dozen plays had gone differently--including the very last one--Iowa would have beaten Penn State. So the facts would seem to support the opinion that Iowa could have--if not should have--won at least 3, probably 4 (Purdue at home) more games last season.

I don't know how Trump figures into the discussion, but since you want facts, here is how Iowa's offense measured up last year:
Total offense: 111th out of 130
Rushing offense: 94th
Passing offense: 88th
First downs per game: 110th
3rd down conversion percentage: 100th
Scoring offense: 68th
Does any of that suggest 11 wins?

 

[grayhair81]

Sure. Why not? #4 Penn State beat Iowa on the last play of the game. I think we all remember what happened when we played #6.

OSU and Wisconsin were the extremes of the season. If Iowa played both teams again with the same players, which result would more expect to see replicated?

 

[Hock-I]

Nate Stanley was quoted today as saying he thinks the Hawkeyes should have won at least three more games last year. Take it up with him.

Well...then win them, don’t just talk about it.

 

[Hock-I]

I'm pretty sure Iowa's basketball team doesn't think it should have won many, if any, more games than it did last year. And besides, despite what we've been getting from our brilliant administration in Washington, opinions are only as good as the FACTS they are based on. The fact is, Iowa lost 17-10 in OT to NW. The fact is Iowa lost 17-10 @ MSU, and in both games Iowa had plenty of chances to win. Then there's the fact that if any one of at least a dozen plays had gone differently--including the very last one--Iowa would have beaten Penn State. So the facts would seem to support the opinion that Iowa could have--if not should have--won at least 3, probably 4 (Purdue at home) more games last season.

How many national championships “should” Iowa have over the last 30 years based on your logic?

 

[iowa12]

I agree, that is what made 2015 so special. We won the close ones.

And played no one

 

[iowa12]

Sure. Why not? #4 Penn State beat Iowa on the last play of the game. I think we all remember what happened when we played #6.

It is very common for teams to match up well with conference foes. See Vandy as a great example. There are many others. Doesn’t make you great

 

[Half-Full Hawk]

Aristotle - I was going to post something similar tonight but after reading your post I thought it would be redundant. I share your sentiment - the Hawks will WIN in 2018. Win what? Hopefully the West for starters. Win how many? Good luck guessing. But I think they have the chops to win 10+ before bowl season, and I will say why. Before that, I agree that every game last year, with the exception of Wisky, was a play or drive away from a win. MSU torched OJ the first two drives of the game last year (which kudos to them, they did it), yet after that we outplayed them. Purdue had similar fortune, although I'm not sure we outplayed them besides their two big drives to that WR. NW and Penn State was a matter of a play here or there. Of course... many teams could say that.

But as it relates to the 2018 Hawks... just remember this prediction - one field goal. If we add one stinkin' FG to our offensive average, I feel strongly we win 10+. This would get us over 31 ppg, and that is a magic number. Last year we were at 28. Every recent year that we scored in the mid/high twenties per game, we lost 4+. IMHO if we are averaging over 30 a game, nowadays around the top 50 nationally, that means our offense is legit and can carry it's own weight like in 2015. Last year we did that only sporadically. Our defense should be solid as ever, because despite the new LB core we have more overall talent now than in years. You can almost count on a top 20 defense in points allowed; I don't think that's a stretch.

How will the O get that extra 3 points per game? Stanley's improved poise + completion percentage, 2 more experienced tackles, and a stronger WR/TE corps that actually might pick some teams apart. Add in a run game with another two-headed monster and some gritty interior OL work... and I think our O improves enough to get over the 30 ppg mark. Oh yeah, our OC now has a full year under his belt too. I realize that the claim that adding a FG a game will improve our wins by 3 or more can easily be picked apart... a FG is pretty arbitrary. But the key is the season average - we likely wont' have two BIG games of 55+ next year. That extra 3 pts. in scoring average will mean no more games of 10-15 pts.

So fire away if you please, but check back on my prediction in late November - 31 ppg or more = 10+ wins!