Although I'm not convinced we will win this tilt with tOSU, nor am I even convinced that we MUST win the meet, it would surely send a message if we did. But, to even think about beating this solid Buckeye team, we have to have Lee sting Nato, then Sorenson, Kemdog and the Bull hold serve and even get some bonus pts, and the unveiling of PDIII to take out a talented (but beatable, as Sammy Brooks demonstrated) Miles Martin. If we win these 5 matches, and somehow outscore the Bucks on bonus, I see a reasonable chance. Or...is that all just crazy talk?
Thats generally how I feel about the dual as well. My gut reaction to how it plays out would be something like this, and I would be giving us 125 and 184 in this scenario and its perfectly reasonable for anybody to favor tOSU at these two weights.
Lee DEC Tomasello 3-0 Iowa
Pletcher DEC Laux/Glynn 3-3 TIE
McKenna DEC Turk/Happel 3-6 tOSU
Sorensen DEC Hayes 6-6 TIE
Kemerer DEC Jordan 9-6 Iowa
Marinelli DEC Campbell 12-6 Iowa
Jordan DEC Gunther 12-9 Iowa
PDIII DEC Martin 15-9 Iowa
Moore DEC Wilcke 15-12 Iowa
Snyder MDEC Stoll 15-16 tOSU
Our only chance for bonus is at 149/157/165. I could honestly see it happening in any of those matches, or if Downey gets a freak pin by launching Martin. But I'm sure they will be on point at home and give solid matches, but if Kem and Sorensen are on their A game, they can both put woopings on Hayes and Jordan. I want to say Stoll could hold it to a DEC, but Snyder is just so freakin good. If Derek White can get in on a shot on Stoll, you can bet your bottom dollar Snyder will be able to. His best chance is to work his upper body ties hard and try to catch him in a sprawl or front headlock to slow the match down and wear him out a bit with size and maybe keep it to a 5-7 pt dec. I love Stoll, but he's got a very tall task against the Olympic champ, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little worried about the knee in this matchup.
So the keys to winning the dual are 125 and 184 for us. Plus holding serve at 149-165 (with bonus needed in at least 1 match). Plus the other 5 weights to all avoid getting bonused. Easy enough
Go Hawks!