Reading the article I just linked in another post got me going on the actual statistical chances of going 12-0.
So, if we guess at the odds of winning each of the remaining games, then multiply those odds together, we should get an estimate of what our overall chances are of going 12-0.
Here's my take:
Maryland - 90%
Indiana - 80%
Minnesota - 85%
Purdue 95%
Nebraska - 65%
So - .9 * .8 * .85 * .95 * .65 = 37.8% chance we go undefeated from here.
This highlights why it is so hard for any team to go 12-0 in any given year, even when they are better than all of their opponents.
Feel free to plug in your own percentages for the games and see what happens to the overall %.
So, if we guess at the odds of winning each of the remaining games, then multiply those odds together, we should get an estimate of what our overall chances are of going 12-0.
Here's my take:
Maryland - 90%
Indiana - 80%
Minnesota - 85%
Purdue 95%
Nebraska - 65%
So - .9 * .8 * .85 * .95 * .65 = 37.8% chance we go undefeated from here.
This highlights why it is so hard for any team to go 12-0 in any given year, even when they are better than all of their opponents.
Feel free to plug in your own percentages for the games and see what happens to the overall %.
