Lindsey Graham might lose his race

[95Hawk]

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Dude: Graham won by 16.5% in his 2014 senate campaign.

Trump won by 14.2% in South Carolina in the 2016 presidential election.

You’ve just provided polls that show an extremely close race in S.C. this time around. Your ability to self-own is astonishing, yet not surprising.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

It's exceptionally rare for an incumbent Senator to lose to a challenger when the Presidential candidate who wins that state is from the same party. The last time this happened was 2008 in Alaska, 11 days after Ted "Series of Tubes" Stevens was convicted and running to become the first convicted felon to win an Election for the Senate. He lost by 1 point.

You need a quality, well-known opponent, an incumbent who's embroiled in scandal, solid funding and what winds up being a closer than expected win for the guy at the top. It also helps to have a state with a fairly indepedent streak like Alaska or Montana (Bullock). Those things are all present here. But Dems should still temper their expectations a bit when considering how these two races would have to buck historical trends. If Trump wins them by just 4-6 points, the challengers may be able to eek it out, but anything more than that and the incumbents will likely ride the coattails and hang on. Same is true of Ernst although Iowa is much more a pure toss up.

But it's pretty clear that Graham's image is pretty badly tarnished, so Trump will do better than him in the state as a whole.

 

[UNCLawHawk]

I just relocated to the Charlotte area for work. I moved here from Wisconsin and have not lived in the south much (although I did go to law school down here as the screen name indicates). Obviously coming from Wisconsin, I am used to knock down drag out type campaigning. Frankly, since 2010 it has been nonstop. Living in Charlotte we get the political ads for both NC and SC. This has been one of the most negative campaign seasons I have ever seen. The Cooper/Forest (NC Governor) race is super negative. The Tillis/Cunningham (NC Senate) race is super negative. Obviously we all know about the ads being run in the Presidential Campaign... just total fear all around.

Harrison is actually running positive ads. It has been a breath of fresh air. There have been some negative Super PAC ads against Graham obviously, but the Harrison campaign has been the least negative of any that I am currently exposed to. Honestly, I wish I could vote for him, but I am in NC. I do think that running on SOMETHING positive is really helping him gain some traction. I don't know that it will be enough to win, but I think that he needs some credit for it.

 

[pjhawk]

One can dream, but I think this race is fool's gold for Democrats. I don't think you'll have 5-6% of the South Carolina electorate that are Trump/Harrison voters. It's the same reason why McGrath won't win in KY. There just aren't that many split ticket voters anymore.

Yeah, probably only have a chance for Harrison/McGrath if potential poll error nationally this time is in favor of Biden rather than Trump. Need a Biden national landslide. Possible, but not very probable. Picking off a seat in an emerging swing state like Georgia is more likely than SC or Kentucky.

I like Bullock's chances in Montana as far as a Democrat who can potentially win in a state Trump is very likely to win. Montana seems to be one of those rare remaining states with significant ticket splitters.

I want to think Greenfield has a chance in Iowa even if Trump narrowly wins the state. We'll see.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

This is true for a lot of Senate races. Graham shouldn't even be a pipe-dream for Democrats. The fact that a lot of the vulnerable GOP races appear to be leaning left at the moment allows for Democrats to indulge themselves somewhat.

This. . . I don't expect Graham to lose this race. It's telling that the race is that close. In a normal year both the Republican presidential candidate and Lindsay Graham are winning by double digits in South Carolina.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

Yeah, probably only have a chance for Harrison/McGrath if potential poll error nationally this time is in favor of Biden rather than Trump. Need a Biden national landslide. Possible, but not very probable. Picking off a seat in an emerging swing state like Georgia is more likely than SC or Kentucky.

I like Bullock's chances in Montana as far as a Democrat who can potentially win in a state Trump is very likely to win. Montana seems to be one of those rare remaining states with significant ticket splitters.

I want to think Greenfield has a chance in Iowa even if Trump narrowly wins the state. We'll see.

I don't see it, Franken had that potential to get a small handful of Trump voters and be a more effective candidate overall. MJ Hegar in Texas has seen her profile rise (and polling narrow considerably vs. Cornyn) despite being almost a complete unknown earlier this year. She's seen a rise in support in light of the Atlantic story while Cornyn has never gotten out of the mid-40s (this race seems to feature an unusually high number of undecideds). That was a situation Franken could have gotten a lot of mileage out of.

I could see a VERY small handful of people voting Biden/Ernst because they're still conservative Republicans, or generally just prefer the divided government. I just don't see the profile of someone would vote Trump/Greenfield.

 

[Democratic Nole]

Yeah, probably only have a chance for Harrison/McGrath if potential poll error nationally this time is in favor of Biden rather than Trump. Need a Biden national landslide. Possible, but not very probable. Picking off a seat in an emerging swing state like Georgia is more likely than SC or Kentucky.

I like Bullock's chances in Montana as far as a Democrat who can potentially win in a state Trump is very likely to win. Montana seems to be one of those rare remaining states with significant ticket splitters.

I want to think Greenfield has a chance in Iowa even if Trump narrowly wins the state. We'll see.

Bullock's race is also unique in that he's been elected governor there twice before running for this office, so he's a known quantity and one that was popular enough to when re-election in Montana even where Trump had a huge margin of victory in the state. Even still, I think Biden needs to lose the state by 10% or less for him to have a shot.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

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Fake news. William Wallace didn't wear a kilt. The kilt appeared long after Wallace was dead.

 

[ConvenientParking]

 

[The_Gent]

It baffles me that Rs don't see the rage here. If they move on this, they are entering a shitstorm that will bury them. We will overwhelm them. We are in the majority. We will dwarf their financials resources. We will vote. They will be wiped out. This will become the Republicans Waterloo.

LOLOLOLOLOLOL no

 

[Huey Grey]

LOLOLOLOLOLOL no

Dems just officially raised $200 million in four days. Enjoy you loss this November.