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Long Term Stability Is Back

The Deplorable Sleeping Dog

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May 9, 2018
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Its been a very long time since Iowa has had the luxury of projecting future line ups as we know have.

But this season we can actually see the starters for at least the next three seasons, or at least most of them.

21-22 (1)Joe T (2)CJ (3)Joe Dub (4) C McC (5)Nunge. There a natural replacement for each player with Ulis/Perkins/Ke Murray and P McC getting significant minutes. Don't know where Ogu works in.

22-23 (1)Joe T (2) CJ (3) P Mc C (4) Ke Murray (5) Ogu/?

23-24 (1) Ahron (2) Tony (3) P Mc C (4) Ke Murray (5) Ogu ?

That's a pretty formidable lineup for years into the future. I kind of assume that open schollie goes to the best big man we can get whether grand transfer or some other transfer with immediate eligibility. That degree of roster stability, if it plays out, certainly shows an improving program very much on the right track.
 
While I love the scenarios here, you can't rule out the potential for some early departures. I refuse to list the ones I'm thinking about for fear of speaking it into existence.

Correct. You're not being hyperbolic or foretelling doom. Just the way it is. Guys generally want to play, and if they don't see a path to the court it's not unusual to leave. I too have zero predictions on who those players might be. But it will happen.
 
Fran does a good job of getting guys on the court so a lot of guys are going to play and with the athleticism these young men have, he should be pushing them hard to play up tempo full court press, man to man, and run out on the break when possible ala Tom Davis style to make sure he is using his bench to play this constant up tempo style.
 
I think you are very close but I do think Payton Sandfort makes a run at either SF or PF. He is a really good shooter with long arms and nice height at 6’7” / 6’8” ish. Smart player that is going to do a lot of things well on the court.
He is probably not a starter right away as a freshman but I think you will want a guy who can knock down the 3 point shot and keep the floor spaced.

Look at the length this Iowa team might have in the front court even after Nunge is gone.
Murrays - 6’8”
P. Sandfort - 6-9”
PMac - 6’9”
Josh O - 6’10”/newly recruited Juco/H.S. center
A
 
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Correct. You're not being hyperbolic or foretelling doom. Just the way it is. Guys generally want to play, and if they don't see a path to the court it's not unusual to leave. I too have zero predictions on who those players might be. But it will happen.

I don’t think that’s what he meant. Worried a certain young player may bolt for pro ball after next year, or at least that’s how I took it.
 
Part of that is just getting past that 2015 class. No disrespect to those guys, but that class killed our depth. We haven't had as many misses since then and really no misses in the 17-19 classes. The verdict is still out on the 2020 guys but early returns look very good so far.
 
I don’t think that’s what he meant. Worried a certain young player may bolt for pro ball after next year, or at least that’s how I took it.
It was both - there are 3 guys I'm worried may have NBA aspirations and look to leave early; plus with how the transfer landscape is, you can never rule that out -- the freshmen this year aren't exactly getting a ton of minutes. I would hope they understood that, and given the pause on the eligibility clock, just treat this as a free redshirt year with some minimal game experience.
 
It was both - there are 3 guys I'm worried may have NBA aspirations and look to leave early; plus with how the transfer landscape is, you can never rule that out -- the freshmen this year aren't exactly getting a ton of minutes. I would hope they understood that, and given the pause on the eligibility clock, just treat this as a free redshirt year with some minimal game experience.
Question here, I don’t understand how 3 guys with NBA aspirations would transfer from a # 3 team in the country to go somewhere else because they couldn’t beat out someone in front of them for minutes, unless you think Iowa is loaded with NBA lottery talent ?
 
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Since day 1, Fran has been trying to build a program, not just win games. He's had some poor recruiting classes that have gotten in the way, but maybe he's getting there.

I have always said, the Iowa of today is not going to recruit too many 5 stars, they have to make one (or have the player make themselves a star) like Garza. After Garza leaves, he needs to make another one. Fran's been pretty good at filling the roster with guys that can play, but to win in the B1G you need a real star.

Trajectory is good.
 
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The beautiful thing I see in the core of players above is none look like early entrants to the pros and none really have a reason to transfer except maybe Ogu-and that is only because he has played little and looks extremely out of shape, so Ogu's simply an unknown.

Ahron and Tony Perkins knew what Iowa's backcourt looked like when they signed. What they didn't know was they would get a free year to improve and then, as was inevitable, they play behind the two talented established starters, both of whom are very talented, and they run the team for two years while some other kids sit behind them. The Murrays and Patrick are genetically Hawks, they aren't going anywhere.

Did not include Payton simply because I haven't seen him play college ball. His HS video looks pretty good, with a frame that could carry a lot more weight.
 
Since day 1, Fran has been trying to build a program, not just win games. He's had some poor recruiting classes that have gotten in the way, but maybe he's getting there.

I have always said, the Iowa of today is not going to recruit too many 5 stars, they have to make one (or have the player make themselves a star) like Garza. After Garza leaves, he needs to make another one. Fran's been pretty good at filling the roster with guys that can play, but to win in the B1G you need a real star.

Trajectory is good.

Think Joe Dub is a twenty plus scorer next season, a season similar to Ute or Whitey. Also either Patrick or Ke Murray or both could develop into big stars. Keegan has that do everything nature in his game. Patrick is literally all over the floor. He has a kind of spastic element to his shots but he is big, fast and can really get off the floor. P McC was a highly rated recruit, given a couple of years, will probably be a star.
 
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You think we have 3 future pros on this team? We’ve had Reggie Evans and Bowen who got a cup of coffee in the last 30 years. Please tell me who the 3 are.
 
It was both - there are 3 guys I'm worried may have NBA aspirations and look to leave early; plus with how the transfer landscape is, you can never rule that out -- the freshmen this year aren't exactly getting a ton of minutes. I would hope they understood that, and given the pause on the eligibility clock, just treat this as a free redshirt year with some minimal game experience.

I’m guessing we have about 9 guys w NBA aspirations. If you’re talking about 3 guys who seem like they can test waters...lemme take a crack.

Joe W, CJ, and Keegan?
 
Not knocking Bowen as he was a guy who got all he could from his ability. He did stick around longer than I thought but he averaged 2 pts and 2 rebounds for his career. We’ve had 1 player since the Raveling recruits (Evans) actually do anything in the NBA. That’s 25 years or so. It would be great to see Luka even make a squad.
 
Ricky Davis NBA career not count?

This team will be different next year without Luka (and JB, and possibly JW) but there may not be as big of a step back as one would think after losing a NPoY type guy.

There will be 20+ to go around, and Iowa could play even faster, not to mention the defensive ability of guys 1-8 (9? 10?), as JBo and Luka are arguably (or inarguably?) our weakest defensive links.

A deep (elite 8 or better) run this year, and another successful season (sweet 16+) next may open up more recruiting doors for top flight guys. The other thing that will help is getting a few guys into the league.

Just like in football, It would be great to get some early entrants, - sure it stings, but when you can start replacing those guys with recruits who can contribute in their first year or two on campus.
 
Evans played 14 years in the NBA and Bowen played 9 or 10. I don’t know what you consider getting a cup of coffee but you are way off base in your assertion.

Ricky Davis played 11 or 12 years in the NBA. Sorry, Just Somebody beat me to it. Should have read to the bottom.

Luka is going to get drafted and he may well stick based on the need for a good offensive big man on the bench. If Joe Dub can learn to go left and get yet stronger in finishing he could have a shot as well. P McC will be drafted I think.
 
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Ricky Davis NBA career not count?

This team will be different next year without Luka (and JB, and possibly JW) but there may not be as big of a step back as one would think after losing a NPoY type guy.

There will be 20+ to go around, and Iowa could play even faster, not to mention the defensive ability of guys 1-8 (9? 10?), as JBo and Luka are arguably (or inarguably?) our weakest defensive links.

A deep (elite 8 or better) run this year, and another successful season (sweet 16+) next may open up more recruiting doors for top flight guys. The other thing that will help is getting a few guys into the league.

Just like in football, It would be great to get some early entrants, - sure it stings, but when you can start replacing those guys with recruits who can contribute in their first year or two on campus.

If Joe Dub returns he'll likely be a 1st Team All Big player. That's always a good place to start. I think Joey T and CJ will be a very good backcourt and a significant defensive improvement, although Jordan's defensive limitations are exaggerated Joe T is a great defender.

An out of nowhere Sweet 16 run is in the underclassmen I think.
 
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If Joe Dub returns he'll likely be a 1st Team All Big player. That's always a good place to start. I think Joey T and CJ will be a very good backcourt and a significant defensive improvement, although Jordan's defensive limitations are exaggerated Joe T is a great defender.

An out of nowhere Sweet 16 run is in the underclassmen I think.
We have the makings of a pretty fair team, that is for certain. I know we want to play fast when we can, but teams will defend us a lot differently in the half court without Luka in there.

We'll see how our guys adjust and if they can handle the added pressure. I'm confident we'll be pretty good, but it will have a different look to it for sure.
 
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