March Madness Tracker

[SotaHawk87]

**Updated Friday 11/17 8:45 AM

Of course its too early. This is for those who enjoy the process! I will keep this updated as the season moves along! Once RPI and SOS becomes more solid that will play in as well.

**TRENDS
For the most part, power 5 leagues are ahead of where they have been in the past for overall wins and losses. Leagues are for the most part avoiding "bad" losses which will mean the bubble is more likely to have more P5 teams.

The November "Bubble" (36) (Highest Rated Kenpom) I will be changing this middle December once we get better data on teams. Just getting the format set up for now!

2's (7) Florida (8) Texas AM
3's (9) Virginia (10) Cincinnati (12) Purdue
4's (13) West Virginia (14) USC (15) North Carolina (16) Xavier
5's (17) Notre Dame (18) Miami (19) Baylor (20) Louisville
6's (21) Oklahoma (22) TCU (23) Gonzaga (24) Alabama
7's (25) SMU (26) St. Marys (27) Minnesota (28) Seton Hall
8's (29) Wisconsin (30) Texas Tech (31) Maryland (32) Providence
9's (33) Texas (34) Kansas State (35) Northwestern (36) UCLA
10's (37) Arkansas (38) Creighton (39) Oregon (40) Tennessee
11's (41) Oklahoma State (42) Michigan (43) Auburn (44) Penn State lol

Best Of The Rest (in order)
*South Carolina, Georgia Tech, St. Johns, *Vanderbilt, Florida, Clemson, Florida State, Butler, Utah, Mississippi, *Virginia Tech, Nevada, (56) Iowa, Marquette, Rhode Island, Houston, Mississippi State, Syracuse, Temple, Georgia, *Iowa State, UCF, BYU, UConn, Davidson.

Favored Multi Bid Conference Champion (10) *denotes possible one bid league (Kenpom ranking in parenthesis)
AAC- Wichita State (3)
*A-10- Rhode Island (57)
ACC- Duke (5)
Big 12- Kansas (4)
Big East-Villanova (1)
Big Ten- Michigan State (11)
*Mountain West- Nevada (55)
Pac 12- Arizona (2)
SEC- Kentucky (6)
WCC- Gonzaga (23)

Likely Single Bid Conferences (22)
16's Norfolk State, Texas Southern, UC Irvine, Idaho, St. Francis PA, Stephen F Austin
15's Ball State, Furman, Iona, South Dakota
14's New Mexico State, Florida Gulf Coast, Belmont UNC Asheville
13's Vermont, Loyola Chicago, UT Arlington, Harvard
12's Charleston, Middle Tennessee State, Oakland, Bucknell

 

[HawksRMe]

Solid info-thanks

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

LOL - I just started pulling this information together on my desktop last night. The one thing I found was that there were a surprising lack of mid-major teams that seem in contention for at-large bids again this year.

I'm wondering if it's due to high major cannibalization of the mid-major conferences (i.e. Wichita joining the American, etc.) or if it is a methodology issue with using KenPom early in the year (essentially, there are 20 or so possible mid majors, all won't have great metrics, but a few will pull off the necessary wins to be at-larges?).

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

This site is also a solid follow. Has Iowa starting as first team out...

http://bracketmatrix.com/

FYI for those too lazy to click:
Others that are just on the outside include Stanford, San Diego State, Indiana, Marquette, and Iowa State; who all have suffered home losses so far this season. While we may not like the weak schedule, at least we seem to be in no danger of taking an early bad loss.

For those that started projected as "in the field"... Vanderbilt has already lost to Belmont.

 

[SotaHawk87]

LOL - I just started pulling this information together on my desktop last night. The one thing I found was that there were a surprising lack of mid-major teams that seem in contention for at-large bids again this year.

I'm wondering if it's due to high major cannibalization of the mid-major conferences (i.e. Wichita joining the American, etc.) or if it is a methodology issue with using KenPom early in the year (essentially, there are 20 or so possible mid majors, all won't have great metrics, but a few will pull off the necessary wins to be at-larges?).

One thing I want to do starting about halfway through the season is projecting some of those results! With so many teams and such different schedules it's tough to see what's actually in front of you or who could be coming from behind!

 

[SDHawkDoc]

LOL - I just started pulling this information together on my desktop last night. The one thing I found was that there were a surprising lack of mid-major teams that seem in contention for at-large bids again this year.

I'm wondering if it's due to high major cannibalization of the mid-major conferences (i.e. Wichita joining the American, etc.) or if it is a methodology issue with using KenPom early in the year (essentially, there are 20 or so possible mid majors, all won't have great metrics, but a few will pull off the necessary wins to be at-larges?).

The missouri valley has firmly moved onto the one bid league roster. They had a nice run with creighton and wichita state in recent years, and occasionally uni, illanoy st., bradley or one of the others picking up a bid. Now, they are completely devoid of a marquee team. arch madness is about on the same level as the MAAC tourney or any of the other minor conference one bid season finales.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Probably a positive correlation with how things will end up, but these early season projections are borderline meaningless guesswork.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

LOL - I just started pulling this information together on my desktop last night. The one thing I found was that there were a surprising lack of mid-major teams that seem in contention for at-large bids again this year.

I'm wondering if it's due to high major cannibalization of the mid-major conferences (i.e. Wichita joining the American, etc.) or if it is a methodology issue with using KenPom early in the year (essentially, there are 20 or so possible mid majors, all won't have great metrics, but a few will pull off the necessary wins to be at-larges?).

Sort of...but the line between the undefined "mid-major" and majors have blurred. American? West coast Conference? Mountain West?

The other part about that is that these quality mid-major programs only use an at large bid when they lose the conference tourney. If a team from one of those conferences has a resume worth being considered, then they'e also projecting out that they will take the auto bid.

 

[HaydenHawk8]

The missouri valley has firmly moved onto the one bid league roster. They had a nice run with creighton and wichita state in recent years, and occasionally uni, illanoy st., bradley or one of the others picking up a bid. Now, they are completely devoid of a marquee team. arch madness is about on the same level as the MAAC tourney or any of the other minor conference one bid season finales.

I don't know about the Mo Valley being a 1 big league. They are getting the non-conf wins they need. Indiana St beat up IU at Bloomington and Ill State just took down South Carolina. Those are big wins for those leagues.

I noticed UNI plays @UNC, ISU, vs Xavier and at the battle for Atlantis. Holy smokes they get 1-2 of those games, they could be on the bubble come March.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I don't know about the Mo Valley being a 1 big league. They are getting the non-conf wins they need. Indiana St beat up IU at Bloomington and Ill State just took down South Carolina. Those are big wins for those leagues.

I noticed UNI plays @UNC, ISU, vs Xavier and at the battle for Atlantis. Holy smokes they get 1-2 of those games, they could be on the bubble come March.

The only road that appears they have to getting more than one is for a team like uni to step up and beat several of the teams that you mention, get on the national radar, get into the top 30 or so by kenpom/sagarin or whatever else they use for NCAA tourney selection and then get beat in the conference tourney so that a second team gets in as well.
That is essentially where they had come to before wsu and creighton left. I just don't see any of the teams that are remaining stepping up to take that spot of a national standard bearer. indy states win over a mediocre to poor iu team isn't going to do it.
uni looks to be OK, but they are unlikely to beat xavier and beating a not very good isu team isn't going to raise their profile much either.
I guess we'll see. What it looks like now, though, is that the mo valley is in the same spot as most of the other one bid leagues. The conference tourney champ to the NCAAs and that's it.

 

[HaydenHawk8]

Yeah I suppose your right. I think Ill state will be the top dog in that conference. They have the guards and big men to give teams like SC fits.

I wish Iowa would try and schedule a team like Ill state and some of those teams in the RPI top 200. Those are wins that carry some weight late in the season.

 

[SotaHawk87]

Updated. Next update will be next tuesday night!

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Are single starred teams in the "Others" section teams that have lost?

 

[SotaHawk87]

Are single starred teams in the "Others" section teams that have lost?

Sorry was going to post the disclaimer. Those are teams with losses to projected 100+ teams