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Margin of error...

dbrocket

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Jan 5, 2010
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Kirk Ferentz likes to say that, on any given week, the margin for error is thin for Iowa football. Now, Kirk has been taking a lot of heat lately for the results on the field - and this is fair. The results have not been good. But, this season, I've seen this criticism venture into territory that I don't think is fair. Specifically, some of the posters here and elsewhere, and some of the sports writers I follow have made it seem like the program is inherently, irredeemably broken. Listening to some people, one would get the sense that we're not even close to where we need to be. And this is just not the case. The program has been very close on and off the field lately (explanation/support below).

The main problem with the Iowa program the last few years is that our running game has just stunk. Our whole team is built around a successful running game (as are a lot of teams - Wisconsin, for example). Our offense is predicated on maintaining drives and wearing out defenses with the running game (Note: this also keeps our defense fresh, sets up the pass, etc), and we haven't been able to do that. Why? We haven't had a feature-level back since at least Marcus Coker - who, of course, was run out on a rail due to off-field issues. rightly or wrongly. We've recruited guys that could tote the ball but, for whatever reason, they haven't stuck. Brandon Wegher. Jewel Hampton. Marcus Coker. Greg Garmon (maybe). Mikail McCall (maybe). Markel Smith (probably).

As we all know, Melvin Gordon was committed to Iowa. The Iowa program, with no other changes, but Melvin Gordon in the backfield, would have looked completely different.We'd be talking about 10 and 11 win seasons. That was a narrow miss on a single player. You do not get much closer than that. The class he was in would have ranked about the same. The team's resaults would have been completely different. Likewise, Marcus Coker (or any of the other talented backs we had at the time; you name them) staying would have meant several more wins each year during his tenure. But Coker was the last feature back we had. Markel Smith, to look at his film, could have fit this bill, and I think we'd be talking about a "resurgent" Iowa program if the kid could have passed his ACTs.

Very little of our RB issues, so far as we can tell, has been KF's fault. He can't control injuries, off-field issues, etc. At worst, we can wonder if personality clashes contributed to running off Greg Garmon and Mikail McCall.

Basically, the Iowa program needs to find, recruit, and keep legitimate running backs. And that's the one position where the wheels have come off the last five-or-so years.

Disclaimer: Last season, in particular, was also about our inability to keep the shelf stocked at linebacker. That is a smaller, but more systemic problem. It seems like we bring linebackers through in waves and our defense suffers badly every 3-4 years as a result. This is something the coaches need to fix.
 
"As we all know, Melvin Gordon was committed to Iowa. The Iowa program, with no other changes, but Melvin Gordon in the backfield, would have looked completely different.We'd be talking about 10 and 11 win seasons. That was a narrow miss on a single player. You do not get much closer than that. The class he was in would have ranked about the same."
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Your assuming that Gordon would have progressed the same at Iowa as he did at Wis. That might have happened but theirs a good chance had he come to Iowa his numbers would not have been the same. In fact a very good chance. In Wis. he ran behind what many called the best offensive line in the BIG and he was the offense. At Iowa he would have been part of the offense. To many apples in the box to make a case for oranges. The one thing he would have been more successful with at Iowa was he would have had one more year.
 
the problem Nlegend you are assuming he would not have, but time has proven that when KF has a good RB they do get better, and they get used

Canzeri if he can stay healthy all season can/will get his carries and may go over 1000 yards rushing on the season. if he does not Wadley or Daniels are just as capable to go for over a 1000 yards this season.,. like the thread title implies the margin for success or failure is very slim as IA does not recruit on the level of a O$U or Michigan. I would love to see what and how KF could do with the classes that Michigan brings in every year.

this season the success will be because of the running game not because of the QB, in 2008 most of the people gave the credit to that 9-4 season to Greene and the Defense. not to Stanzi,

Gordon was the reason behind Wisconsin success this season without him they are barely a .500 team last season White and Gordon again the reason behind their success,
 
Originally posted by dbrocket:
Kirk Ferentz likes to say that, on any given week, the margin for error is thin for Iowa football. Now, Kirk has been taking a lot of heat lately for the results on the field - and this is fair. The results have not been good. But, this season, I've seen this criticism venture into territory that I don't think is fair. Specifically, some of the posters here and elsewhere, and some of the sports writers I follow have made it seem like the program is inherently, irredeemably broken. Listening to some people, one would get the sense that we're not even close to where we need to be. And this is just not the case. The program has been very close on and off the field lately (explanation/support below).

The main problem with the Iowa program the last few years is that our running game has just stunk. Our whole team is built around a successful running game (as are a lot of teams - Wisconsin, for example). Our offense is predicated on maintaining drives and wearing out defenses with the running game (Note: this also keeps our defense fresh, sets up the pass, etc), and we haven't been able to do that. Why? We haven't had a feature-level back since at least Marcus Coker - who, of course, was run out on a rail due to off-field issues. rightly or wrongly. We've recruited guys that could tote the ball but, for whatever reason, they haven't stuck. Brandon Wegher. Jewel Hampton. Marcus Coker. Greg Garmon (maybe). Mikail McCall (maybe). Markel Smith (probably).

As we all know, Melvin Gordon was committed to Iowa. The Iowa program, with no other changes, but Melvin Gordon in the backfield, would have looked completely different.We'd be talking about 10 and 11 win seasons. That was a narrow miss on a single player. You do not get much closer than that. The class he was in would have ranked about the same. The team's resaults would have been completely different. Likewise, Marcus Coker (or any of the other talented backs we had at the time; you name them) staying would have meant several more wins each year during his tenure. But Coker was the last feature back we had. Markel Smith, to look at his film, could have fit this bill, and I think we'd be talking about a "resurgent" Iowa program if the kid could have passed his ACTs.

Very little of our RB issues, so far as we can tell, has been KF's fault. He can't control injuries, off-field issues, etc. At worst, we can wonder if personality clashes contributed to running off Greg Garmon and Mikail McCall.

Basically, the Iowa program needs to find, recruit, and keep legitimate running backs. And that's the one position where the wheels have come off the last five-or-so years.

Disclaimer: Last season, in particular, was also about our inability to keep the shelf stocked at linebacker. That is a smaller, but more systemic problem. It seems like we bring linebackers through in waves and our defense suffers badly every 3-4 years as a result. This is something the coaches need to fix.
So you don't think Iowa should be flexible and pay to it's strengths?

You don't think Iowa's offensive philosophy should evolve with the times?

You think Iowa should continue to rush the ball even when it's not working?
 
Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

the problem Nlegend you are assuming he would not have, but time has proven that when KF has a good RB they do get better, and they get used

Canzeri if he can stay healthy all season can/will get his carries and may go over 1000 yards rushing on the season. if he does not Wadley or Daniels are just as capable to go for over a 1000 yards this season.,. like the thread title implies the margin for success or failure is very slim as IA does not recruit on the level of a O$U or Michigan. I would love to see what and how KF could do with the classes that Michigan brings in every year.

this season the success will be because of the running game not because of the QB, in 2008 most of the people gave the credit to that 9-4 season to Greene and the Defense. not to Stanzi,

Gordon was the reason behind Wisconsin success this season without him they are barely a .500 team last season White and Gordon again the reason behind their success,
I haven't yet seen any evidence on the field yet that Daniels or Wadley will be 1000 yard rushers.
 
Quality running back recruits see what has happened with running backs in the system, and fair or not, as an evaluation, it isn't pretty. It becomes harder and harder to recruit dynamic players into a system that has players ride the bench behind a fullback, or not get in to return a punt because they can't be trusted to make a safe play,--or off the field--stay on the team if you make a mistake.

You and I both know that is a foolish evaluation, but it's what these players see about Ferentzball in their young heads. Multiply that into every other skill position and, broken or not, things are broken. It will take a new coach and new philosophy before things start to change.
 
clarification, kinda. The running game has shrunk in part because the passing game has shrunk.
when the defense knows the QB can't throw the ball down the field, that certainly impacts the running game.
 
Originally posted by madmustang4:
clarification, kinda. The running game has shrunk in part because the passing game has shrunk.
when the defense knows the QB can't throw the ball down the field, that certainly impacts the running game.
Perhaps so. Lack of an impact running back is just as significant though.
 
then explain why RB Higdon from FLA committed?

why and how is it that 4* QB Weigers commited in the 2014 class out of Michigan, some of you bitch about weisman playing and 4* Garmon out of Pennsylvania commit then play as a true FR.

you can't, but you sure can make things up, MW was the only healthy Back KF had, what was he to do?

as for Daniels and Wadley not showing anything yet I disagree on Wadley, against NW he had 106 yards rushing on just 15 carries for a 7.1 ypc and on 30 carries on the season he had 185 yards for a 6.3 ypc avg.
 
Time of Possession was not the problem last year. Iowa ranked 4th in the conference, 29th nationally and it was their best production since 2008.
 
Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

then explain why RB Higdon from FLA committed?

why and how is it that 4* QB Weigers commited in the 2014 class out of Michigan, some of you bitch about weisman playing and 4* Garmon out of Pennsylvania commit then play as a true FR.

you can't, but you sure can make things up, MW was the only healthy Back KF had, what was he to do?

as for Daniels and Wadley not showing anything yet I disagree on Wadley, against NW he had 106 yards rushing on just 15 carries for a 7.1 ypc and on 30 carries on the season he had 185 yards for a 6.3 ypc avg.
So he had one good half against one of the worst defenses in the BIG 10 when game was out of hand. Good sign yes but got to see a lot more before you make him to be a great RB and what did he do the rest of the year? If he is that good and didn't play then is that the coaches fault?
 
I worry more about the defense than the offense. There have been seasons where the offense wasn't near as productive as this season's offense yet because of a strong physical defense the Hawks would pull out a win. There were too many games this year that Iowa gave up 24 plus in points. Too many times when the defense needed to make a stop and couldn't get the job done. Too many break downs on defense that allowed too many plays of 20 yds. or more. There were too many games where the other team was more physical than Iowa. And finally Iowa didn't seem to get the take aways that they would get in other years. At least with a good defense Iowa would be in most every game they play with a good chance to win it.
 
Now I'm not trashing Weigers, I think he has a bright future. But his only other BIG offer was Rutgers. Besides that it was Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Toledo, and Western Michigan. Total 2 BIG offers, like 4 MAC, I think. I don't keep track of those schools conferences.
 
Pretty sure grosie is winning this thread.

Iowa never has been outstanding on offense under Ferentz but the defense seemed to be more consistent, and of a higher quality as compared to the offense during his time.
 
Originally posted by bagdropper:

Pretty sure grosie is winning this thread.

Iowa never has been outstanding on offense under Ferentz but the defense seemed to be more consistent, and of a higher quality as compared to the offense during his time.
KF's success at Iowa has been play very good defense inside the red zone and control the ball on offense. Generally Iowa's first teamers are comparable to Penn State, Michigan and OSU but it is their depth that makes them, them and Iowa, Iowa.

To combat the fall off from the starters to the reserves, Iowa likes to have long drives on both sides of the ball and play field position. Basically if you shorten the game you have a punchers chance to win the game if you convert when you need to. That is where the margin of error is very thin for Iowa where it isn't as thin for the OSU's of the world.
 
Originally posted by bagdropper:

Pretty sure grosie is winning this thread.

Iowa never has been outstanding on offense under Ferentz but the defense seemed to be more consistent, and of a higher quality as compared to the offense during his time.
No argument from me about that. A few things everyone can bat around regarding the defense, but more than anything, the margin of error is not missing tackles. Probably the one sure thing that could be pointed at in the games against Maryland and Nebraska. May not have changed the outcome vs. Tennessee, but that was definitely a very large issue.

So: tackle. Fixable?

Perhaps.
 
Playing close games against mediocre or weak opposition is not a sign of good coaching. Look at some of the "close" wins and losses the last 8-10 seasons.
 
The defense was big, yes. And most of that came down to our inconsistency in recruiting, retaining and developing LBs. It's extremely frustrating to see our guys out of position, not getting off blocks, and missing tackles. But a good running game is like a good sauce: it covers a whole lot of ugly. A good running game makes whatever your weakness is on defense a small issue, instead of a large one, because your opponent has fewer opportunities to exploit it. It makes your guys play with better intensity, because they're fresh. With a good running back, we'd be saying KF needs to do a better job with the linebackers in order for the program to take the next step. Without one, we're saying we need to do that to get back in the game.
 
Originally posted by whatsup12579er:

Originally posted by bagdropper:

Pretty sure grosie is winning this thread.

Iowa never has been outstanding on offense under Ferentz but the defense seemed to be more consistent, and of a higher quality as compared to the offense during his time.
KF's success at Iowa has been play very good defense inside the red zone and control the ball on offense. Generally Iowa's first teamers are comparable to Penn State, Michigan and OSU but it is their depth that makes them, them and Iowa, Iowa.

To combat the fall off from the starters to the reserves, Iowa likes to have long drives on both sides of the ball and play field position. Basically if you shorten the game you have a punchers chance to win the game if you convert when you need to. That is where the margin of error is very thin for Iowa where it isn't as thin for the OSU's of the world.
Over the last 5 yrs KF's record is 34-30 (19-21 CONF) 1-3 in Bowl games. Plain and simple the ball control game isn't working anymore.
 
Originally posted by GarryO37:

Originally posted by dbrocket:
Kirk Ferentz likes to say that, on any given week, the margin for error is thin for Iowa football. Now, Kirk has been taking a lot of heat lately for the results on the field - and this is fair. The results have not been good. But, this season, I've seen this criticism venture into territory that I don't think is fair. Specifically, some of the posters here and elsewhere, and some of the sports writers I follow have made it seem like the program is inherently, irredeemably broken. Listening to some people, one would get the sense that we're not even close to where we need to be. And this is just not the case. The program has been very close on and off the field lately (explanation/support below).

The main problem with the Iowa program the last few years is that our running game has just stunk. Our whole team is built around a successful running game (as are a lot of teams - Wisconsin, for example). Our offense is predicated on maintaining drives and wearing out defenses with the running game (Note: this also keeps our defense fresh, sets up the pass, etc), and we haven't been able to do that. Why? We haven't had a feature-level back since at least Marcus Coker - who, of course, was run out on a rail due to off-field issues. rightly or wrongly. We've recruited guys that could tote the ball but, for whatever reason, they haven't stuck. Brandon Wegher. Jewel Hampton. Marcus Coker. Greg Garmon (maybe). Mikail McCall (maybe). Markel Smith (probably).

As we all know, Melvin Gordon was committed to Iowa. The Iowa program, with no other changes, but Melvin Gordon in the backfield, would have looked completely different.We'd be talking about 10 and 11 win seasons. That was a narrow miss on a single player. You do not get much closer than that. The class he was in would have ranked about the same. The team's resaults would have been completely different. Likewise, Marcus Coker (or any of the other talented backs we had at the time; you name them) staying would have meant several more wins each year during his tenure. But Coker was the last feature back we had. Markel Smith, to look at his film, could have fit this bill, and I think we'd be talking about a "resurgent" Iowa program if the kid could have passed his ACTs.

Very little of our RB issues, so far as we can tell, has been KF's fault. He can't control injuries, off-field issues, etc. At worst, we can wonder if personality clashes contributed to running off Greg Garmon and Mikail McCall.

Basically, the Iowa program needs to find, recruit, and keep legitimate running backs. And that's the one position where the wheels have come off the last five-or-so years.

Disclaimer: Last season, in particular, was also about our inability to keep the shelf stocked at linebacker. That is a smaller, but more systemic problem. It seems like we bring linebackers through in waves and our defense suffers badly every 3-4 years as a result. This is something the coaches need to fix.
So you don't think Iowa should be flexible and pay to it's strengths? If it costs money, probably not.....unless they can afford it.

But otherwise, yes.
smokin.r191677.gif


You don't think Iowa's offensive philosophy should evolve with the times? The offense isn't outdated. It's just not good. (i.e. optimal for success) Iowa isn't running the friggin Wing-T and plenty of teams still use the I-form and pro style set up, including Alabama. Iowa is just doing it wrong.......

You think Iowa should continue to rush the ball even when it's not working? That's what Navy and Georgia Tech do. Tech won the Orange Bowl this year.
 
Originally posted by iahawkeyes17:

Originally posted by Hawkeye2222:

then explain why RB Higdon from FLA committed?

why and how is it that 4* QB Weigers commited in the 2014 class out of Michigan, some of you bitch about weisman playing and 4* Garmon out of Pennsylvania commit then play as a true FR.

you can't, but you sure can make things up, MW was the only healthy Back KF had, what was he to do?

as for Daniels and Wadley not showing anything yet I disagree on Wadley, against NW he had 106 yards rushing on just 15 carries for a 7.1 ypc and on 30 carries on the season he had 185 yards for a 6.3 ypc avg.
So he had one good half against one of the worst defenses in the BIG 10 when game was out of hand. Good sign yes but got to see a lot more before you make him to be a great RB and what did he do the rest of the year? If he is that good and didn't play then is that the coaches fault?
Reminds me a lot about how some people got all wet when Peter Jok put up some junk points against Michigan St's 3rd team defense in a blowout last year. True signs of things to come they said.
 
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