Marinelli RS or..

[TarpHawk]

I get what you're saying, but Alex Tshirt still burns deep in my memory.

Dake says he disagrees.

If we had that many 3rds, that would easily be enough to clinch it. I posted a topic earlier about the winning team spreads of AA's.


2016= 1-1-2-2-2-6....123 pts....PSU
6 AAs, 5 finalists, 2 champs

2015= 1-1-2-3-5....102 pts....tOSU
5 AAs, 3 finalists, 2 champs

2014= 1-1-3-5-5-7-7....109.5 pts....PSU
7 AAs, 2 finalists, 2 champs

2013= 1-1-2-2-2....123.5....PSU
5 AAs, 5 finalists, 2 champs

2012= 1-1-1-2-2-3....143 pts....PSU
6 AAs, 5 finalists, 3 champs

2011= 1-2-2-3-3....107.5 pts....PSU
5 AAs, 3 Finalists, 1 Champ

2010= 1-1-1-2-2-7-7-8....134.5 pts....Iowa
8 AAs, 5 Finalists, 3 Champs

2009= 2-3-4-4-7....96.5 pts....Iowa
5 AAs, 1 Finalist, No champs

2008= 1-1-2-3-5-6-6....117.5 pts....Iowa
7 AAs, 3 Finalists, 2 Champs

2007= 1-3-3-5-6....98 pts....Minnesota
5 AAs, 1 finalist, 1 Champ

If we had Two 1sts, and Two 2nd's... I think we have a very good chance to win, then we have a supporting cast of Meyer/Brooks/Stoll/Carton/Wilcke/(Marinelli/Young/Gunther) to make up. I think between our big 4 they can put up 80-82 pts.

This is an eye-opening reminder to look at the bigger picture, which is that we need to get back to putting 5 guys in the finals.

 

[LaxHawk174]

Dake says he disagrees.

This is an eye-opening reminder to look at the bigger picture, which is that we need to get back to putting 5 guys in the finals.

Exactly, too many people worry about 'holes' in the lineup. Holes don't matter as long as the 'non-holes' have adequate fire power. If we have 5 NCAA champs, and 5 guys go 0-2, the worst that can happen is maybe a few surprise dual meet losses throughout the season, but we'd have the title.

 

[TailgateTom]

Dake says he disagrees.

This is an eye-opening reminder to look at the bigger picture, which is that we need to get back to putting 5 guys in the finals.

Dake can disagree all he wants. Fact is there are many more examples of Alex Tsirtsis than Kyle Dake.

 

[YoungGun07]

Ask Kevin Jackson how pulling redshirts has gone in Ames...

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

Let Marinelli wrestle this year then redshirt next year with Lee. IMar will still be at 165 next year anyways so what's the difference. Young can go 165 next year if he wants or he can go to 174 if he is big enough.

I understand your reasoning and have had the same thought, although one reason for keeping the shirt on this year is that Alex gets more time to grow into 165. . . assuming he and Kemerer don't end up switching weights, with Alex going 157 and Kemerer going 165. It's really an individual matter that would set Alex up to place more highly and win more national titles. Even though IMar is around next year, Alex would probably place more highly next year than this year. And it's not out of the question (granted, unlikely) that he closes the gap on IMar over a year

Honestly this is my gut feeling for how our guys do at the end of the year and you can determine how I think we will do.

Gilman: CHAMP
Clark: 1st to 4th
Carton: rd. of 12
Sorensen: 2nd
Kemdawg: 2nd to 5th
Gunther: Zero pts.
Meyer: 5th to rd. of 12
Brooks: 3rd to rd. of 12
Wilcke: Zero pts.
Stoll: 2nd to 6th

Next year won't be all that bad either. Not a contender but top 5 is not going to be to far out of reach.

Laux: AA
Wagner: NQ
Happel: rd. of 12
Sorensen: 2nd
Kemdawg: 2nd or 3rd
Marinelli: 2nd to 6th
Young: AA
Wilcke: AA
Holloway????: zero points IF he makes it down I still have no faith in him. Not trying to bash him that bad just don't trust him right now.
Stoll:1st to 4th

Considering that next year is by all accounts a re-building year, I'd take that result in a second. Seven AA's in a re-building year? Granted, only 3 with real high-AA potential, but shoot -- I'd take 7 AA's in a re-building year any day.

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

All signs point to us not wrestling Lee and Warner next year. If that is the case I think it is an absolute no-brainer to pull Marianlli's shirt. True freshman that wrestle in the lineup seem to have a tendency to make huge in-season improvements. Martin & McFadden last year. Dance his freshman year ... He already looks to be easily at the round of 12 level of talent. It does not take a huge stretch in imagination to see him be a mid (5-6th) AA, which is probably 10+ points.

Well-reasoned post, but at the same time, you can also point to guys who struggled mightily after wrestling their true freshman years. Alex Tsirtsis and John Meeks come to mind immediately, but there are other examples. Sometimes they make great strides, but sometimes their confidence can suffer. The outcome of pulling the shirt isn't necessarily easy to predict.

 

[TarpHawk]

Rant...

I've heard the "their confidence will suffer" argument many times, with Tsirtsis as the poster child, but I'm skeptical that it has any merit.

For starters, I don't see any clear correlation between wrestling as a true freshman and flaming out. For every Tsirtsis there's a Dake or McGinness or McIlravy or Davis. And plenty of great high school wrestlers fail to make the podium in college despite redshirting (the Moores). Too many other variables. Tsirtsis is a cherry-picked example, like those who say "Look at Dan Dennis" in response to those who say landing top P4P recruits is critical.

Second, it defies logic to say that true competitors improve most by ducking the best competition for a year. What happens? They get their feelings hurt? And that makes them give up? Hmm. That doesn't jibe with my experience. Everyone who enters the Iowa room gets their asses kicked by others in the room for their entire freshman year. And guys like McGinniss came to the room when they were in high school so that they could wrestle with the best. Guys like the Brands brothers got mauled by guys like Penrith and Melchiore and Davis and Lewboo. Their feelings werent hurt. Iron sharpens iron. That's my experience anyway.

 

[Knight563]

Tweet from KJ Pilcher......



For those interested, Iowa's Alex Marinelli is not listed in the probable lineup released for Michigan and Michigan St. duals this weekend.

 

[Kwoodhawk]

Tweet from KJ Pilcher......



For those interested, Iowa's Alex Marinelli is not listed in the probable lineup released for Michigan and Michigan St. duals this weekend.

Wait............What...............

Is Tom not listening..............

We haven't decided yet..........

 

[Knight563]

From IAwrestle

 

[Omahahawk86]

Well-reasoned post, but at the same time, you can also point to guys who struggled mightily after wrestling their true freshman years. Alex Tsirtsis and John Meeks come to mind immediately, but there are other examples. Sometimes they make great strides, but sometimes their confidence can suffer. The outcome of pulling the shirt isn't necessarily easy to predict.

To be fair there were unrealistic expectations set for Alex tsirtsis coming out of Hs that weren't fair to him. He was compared to metcalf poets etc but his results weren't in line with that. Never won Fargo didn't win sr nationals etc.

 

[TailgateTom]

Rant...

I've heard the "their confidence will suffer" argument many times, with Tsirtsis as the poster child, but I'm skeptical that it has any merit.

For starters, I don't see any clear correlation between wrestling as a true freshman and flaming out. For every Tsirtsis there's a Dake or McGinness or McIlravy or Davis. And plenty of great high school wrestlers fail to make the podium in college despite redshirting (the Moores). Too many other variables. Tsirtsis is a cherry-picked example, like those who say "Look at Dan Dennis" in response to those who say landing top P4P recruits is critical.

Second, it defies logic to say that true competitors improve most by ducking the best competition for a year. What happens? They get their feelings hurt? And that makes them give up? Hmm. That doesn't jibe with my experience. Everyone who enters the Iowa room gets their asses kicked by others in the room for their entire freshman year. And guys like McGinniss came to the room when they were in high school so that they could wrestle with the best. Guys like the Brands brothers got mauled by guys like Penrith and Melchiore and Davis and Lewboo. Their feelings werent hurt. Iron sharpens iron. That's my experience anyway.

Cherry picked, like Kyle Dake? Please list all 4x NCAA Champs who didn't redshirt their first year. Or at all.

 

[rossel 33]

Intermat's newest rankings at 157#:

RANK WRESTLER SCHOOL
1 Jason Nolf Penn State
2 Michael Kemerer Iowa
3 Tyler Berger Nebraska
4 Dylan Palacio Cornell
5 Jordan Kutler Lehigh
6 Joe Smith Oklahoma State
7 Joey LaVallee Missouri
8 Andrew Atkinson

Does this change the equation re whether or not to RS Marinelli? With Kemerer moving up, it's conceivable Iowa could have:

Gilman 1st
Clark 1st
Sorensen 2nd
Kemerer 2nd

Depending on points out of Meyer, Brooks and Stoll, and bonus pts, Iowa could be looking good.


I guess so much depends on Clark's status.

 

[WWDMHawkeye]

Rant...

I've heard the "their confidence will suffer" argument many times, with Tsirtsis as the poster child, but I'm skeptical that it has any merit.

For starters, I don't see any clear correlation between wrestling as a true freshman and flaming out. For every Tsirtsis there's a Dake or McGinness or McIlravy or Davis. And plenty of great high school wrestlers fail to make the podium in college despite redshirting (the Moores). Too many other variables. Tsirtsis is a cherry-picked example, like those who say "Look at Dan Dennis" in response to those who say landing top P4P recruits is critical.

Second, it defies logic to say that true competitors improve most by ducking the best competition for a year. What happens? They get their feelings hurt? And that makes them give up? Hmm. That doesn't jibe with my experience. Everyone who enters the Iowa room gets their asses kicked by others in the room for their entire freshman year. And guys like McGinniss came to the room when they were in high school so that they could wrestle with the best. Guys like the Brands brothers got mauled by guys like Penrith and Melchiore and Davis and Lewboo. Their feelings werent hurt. Iron sharpens iron. That's my experience anyway.

Good point, Tarp. I shouldn't have even guessed as to why some guys struggle after not redshirting. It may have nothing to do with confidence, but as you say, there are too many variables to really sort out causes, and I'm sure there are lots of reasons why some guys excel and others struggle.

My main point was that, for every example of a guy excelling when his redshirt is pulled, another can be cited where a guy struggled. We shouldn't assume Alex will necessarily be better or worse off because he happens to crack the lineup this year or not.

 

[crablegs1]

Dake can disagree all he wants. Fact is there are many more examples of Alex Tsirtsis than Kyle Dake.

There's also plenty of Mike Evans who regress in a 5th year.

If a guy is ready to go, saving them for some possible 5th year so far in the future is a big risk. A lot can happen between now and then.

 

[TarpHawk]

Cherry picked, like Kyle Dake? Please list all 4x NCAA Champs who didn't redshirt their first year. Or at all.

Kyle Dake and Pat Smith. That's 50%.

 

[TailgateTom]

Kyle Dake and Pat Smith. That's 50%.

So 2 in the entire history of college wrestling?

 

[TailgateTom]

There's also plenty of Mike Evans who regress in a 5th year.

If a guy is ready to go, saving them for some possible 5th year so far in the future is a big risk. A lot can happen between now and then.

Evans went np, 6, 6, 6

 

[crablegs1]

Evans went np, 6, 6, 6

I would say it was his worst year other than freshman year. But results wise you're correct, I should have used a different example.

 

[Blackcat97]

Marinelli was pretty well handled by #12 Anthony Valencia, a wrestler that most would not pick to AA right now. His most significant win is who, Glass? If his shirt was pulled and assuming he took a couple losses during Big duals (probably a fair assumption) his seed at Nationals would be pretty bad.
I think Marinelli will be good, I will even go out on a limb and say he's a 4xAA, but his shirt needs to stay on this year.
For what it's worth I would also leave Hall's shirt on.

 

[Hawkman68]

I'm thinking pull it this year for Marinelli and shirt Young, next year shirt Bull and wrestle Young. After that, BS is gone, Kemmerer goes down to 49, Bull at 57, Young at 65, not sure who's at 74, Trent Hidlay is out there

 

[pumpdog20]

shirt, save AM for as many years post Zain/Nolf/Nickal as we can.

 

[DonHawkeye]

shirt, save AM for as many years post Zain/Nolf/Nickal as we can.

Yeah maybe we can shirt him again next year too since that is what you would have to do to make a difference on how many years post Zain... he would be available.

I think what is not really being weighed here and I am guessing most of us don't have a clue on is does he want to wrestle this year. If he does than just pull it now. He is either going to redshirt this year or next. Maybe wrestling this year and seeing what he needs to work on over the next year and a half could be the best thing for him.

Also, you then go into next year knowing no doubt about it that it is a rebuilding year. It sucks that we have been put into that kind of spot but PSU & tOSU have done this recently. 2 teams that have won NCAA team titles more recently than us.

 

[24 so far]

Rant...

I've heard the "their confidence will suffer" argument many times, with Tsirtsis as the poster child, but I'm skeptical that it has any merit.

For starters, I don't see any clear correlation between wrestling as a true freshman and flaming out. For every Tsirtsis there's a Dake or McGinness or McIlravy or Davis. And plenty of great high school wrestlers fail to make the podium in college despite redshirting (the Moores). Too many other variables. Tsirtsis is a cherry-picked example, like those who say "Look at Dan Dennis" in response to those who say landing top P4P recruits is critical.

Second, it defies logic to say that true competitors improve most by ducking the best competition for a year. What happens? They get their feelings hurt? And that makes them give up? Hmm. That doesn't jibe with my experience. Everyone who enters the Iowa room gets their asses kicked by others in the room for their entire freshman year. And guys like McGinniss came to the room when they were in high school so that they could wrestle with the best. Guys like the Brands brothers got mauled by guys like Penrith and Melchiore and Davis and Lewboo. Their feelings werent hurt. Iron sharpens iron. That's my experience anyway.

I'm not the least bit skeptical as it relates to Alex Tsirtsis, his biggest problem was he wasn't good enough. Period. If you can't get your "confidence" back in 5 years, you got a lot more issues than when your redshirt was taken. It's an excuse that fans use for him, and a poor one at that IMO.