Pre-game notes:
- The fact that this is a night game is over-hyped. Everyone is going to forget about that after the first quarter
- Maryland typically doesn't have a raucous crowd, even though they are 4-0, and they will be effective for maybe 2 possessions
- It does give each team one less day to prep, which is more of an advantage to Iowa than to Maryland. This is because preparing for the Iowa defense is much more out of the norm for most offenses because it takes a lot of discipline to attack this scheme, whereas, Iowa has already seen pretty much everything that Maryland is going to throw at us on both sides of the ball.
Game plans:
- Iowa: I wouldn't get too excited here and think that Iowa's offense is going to just come out and look like a juggernaut. I would expect that Iowa is going to stick with the plan: try to establish the run, limit possessions, win the field position battle, keep everything in front of them, and wear them down in the second half.
- Maryland: This is probably going to be the biggest challenge for a Maryland team, that has shown to be very undisciplined under Locksley, because even if they have a plan will they be able to execute it. But, I would imagine the plan on offense will be to continually get the ball to their playmakers as they have some very talented wide receivers and running back. Maryland will try to dictate tempo on offense, while on defense they will try to penetrate the gaps to stop the run and then put a lot of pressure on Petras on passing downs. Simple right?
So what is going to happen?:
When Maryland has the ball:
I would imagine Phil is going to play a ton of cover 2 in this game, and probably play a lot more Merriweather than Benson, especially early and on passing downs. Phil will not let Maryland's receiver get over the top on them, so you will see pretty much exclusively 2-high safeties pre-snap. Tag (I am not going to spell it out) does have the ability and the propensity to make the second level throws, and may hit a couple of them, but he will not win the game here. Phil will want him to throw that ball, especially over the middle in the deep zone where Phil has a senior free safety in Koerner, and then the luxury of Belton, Campbell and Jacobs to man that middle. I think Phil will give Tag a lot of different looks in that middle zone and he will have to make the decision to throw the deep out over the corner and away from each safety, or the check down to the running back or the slot. I could see at the beginning of the game that Tag isn't even going to attempt to the deep shot, instead throw those flat routes and wheel routes out of the backfield. Iowa's defensive line will not allow Maryland to run effectively. Their offensive line is not very good in run blocking and they will want to run more out of the spread than more conventional alignments. Iowa's linebackers are going to have a big day in stopping the run game as well as keep Tag in the pocket.
Even though Tag can run, it will rarely be by design and I am sure that the coaches want to use that card sparingly. He is also short, so look for a lot of batted balls at the line of scrimmage as Iowa's defensive line is excellent at getting in the passing lanes and getting their hands up. I would not be surprised to see 5 or 6 tipped passes and these can be game changers, the type of unpredictable play that turns a 24-7 win into a 45-7 win. Also note, Maryland does not utilize the tight ends in a primary package. Their philosophy is to have superior skill position talent and to get them the ball. Phil knows this and will allow them to get the ball but where he wants it to go.
To beat Phil's defense, a team has to make a committed effort to run the ball, get positive yardage and accept that a 3-4 yard gain is a win. This puts teams in 2nd and 6 where both run and pass are on the table, and then 3rd and 2 where the playbook is wide open. And you have to do it going down the long field in a 12-15 play drive. It takes a ton of discipline to do that, and I just don't see Maryland having that discipline or even desire to do that for an entire game. Also, against Phil's defense, Maryland better make their mark and score early because Phil will win the second half, especially if we have a lead and you are 1 dimensional. The depth of our defensive line will really show up in the second half, as Phil makes adjustments to the coverages, confusing Tag, and a worn out o-line won't be as effective.
When Iowa has the ball:
I would imagine that Brian is going to come out early and establish his personnel and his formations by running the ball. It may look frustrating because Maryland will be loading the box on 12 personnel and we will run Goodson to the short side of the field. We will run some sort of stretch play to the wide side, some sort of mis-direction with a counter or a bootleg, and probably some empty on 3rd down with 5 wides. This will all be part of the plan to see how Maryland lines up against it. If somebody lines up wrong and Goodson breaks one, great, that is a bonus, but the whole basis of this offense is to run multiple plays out of the same formations and set up the easy ones. Maryland runs a blitz heavy 3-4 scheme, so this is going to look a lot like Iowa State where you will see 7, 8 and even 9 in the box flowing to the strong side of the formation, penetrate our gaps and have linebackers make plays. However, they are much more undisciplined that Iowa State and over-pursuing this will have grave consequences for them. Establishing all of this early is so important because it will set everything up for us to have a plethora of options later. They will get pressure on Petras, and the non-informed Iowa fans will get restless as Petras takes sacks and throws the ball away, but he is exactly what we need as he doesn't turn it over.
I think that Maryland will really struggle to cover Goodson out of the backfield in the passing game as Maryland's linebackers will have a tendency to get sucked into the action and lose contain out of the backfield. I also think that they will struggle with 12 and 22 personnel packages, and they will struggle to cover LaPorta because I doubt they double him and they don't have anyone that can match up with him. If they try to do that, they will take a defender out of the box which will allow us to run. Whether we go deep and attack the man coverages on the outside will remain to be seen, but what is great is that we did it last week which is pretty much the same as establishing it in this game. They will know that Johnson can run that and Petras can throw it. That alone will be enough to pull a safety over to cover that vertical route, which should open up the seam for LaPorta. Or Lachey as well as he shows to run good routes and has great hands. Also, look for some mis-direction and jet sweeps in the run game with both Tracy and Bruce.
Special Teams:
We all know what we have, but Maryland also has a pretty good punter. Anyone can shank one at any point in time, but he is no slouch. He isn't a game changer like the last guy was, but he can get it down there. However, look for some yardage here on the returns, both because Jones is special and I think this punter is returnable. Their FG kicker is not a strength either.
So what do I see happening?
I see Iowa feeling Maryland out for a quarter and a half or so, then hitting a few chunk plays on designed makeables, then taking the air out of the ball in the second half. The Iowa defense will close in on Tag as the game goes on and force him into some mistakes as he will not be comfortable all night. I don't see Iowa's defense giving up anything in the second half, and Maryland may get 10 on Iowa early as they spread us out. I think this is a get-in, get-out, pedestrian 24-10 game barring a bunch of turnovers, kick returns or blocked kicks.
- The fact that this is a night game is over-hyped. Everyone is going to forget about that after the first quarter
- Maryland typically doesn't have a raucous crowd, even though they are 4-0, and they will be effective for maybe 2 possessions
- It does give each team one less day to prep, which is more of an advantage to Iowa than to Maryland. This is because preparing for the Iowa defense is much more out of the norm for most offenses because it takes a lot of discipline to attack this scheme, whereas, Iowa has already seen pretty much everything that Maryland is going to throw at us on both sides of the ball.
Game plans:
- Iowa: I wouldn't get too excited here and think that Iowa's offense is going to just come out and look like a juggernaut. I would expect that Iowa is going to stick with the plan: try to establish the run, limit possessions, win the field position battle, keep everything in front of them, and wear them down in the second half.
- Maryland: This is probably going to be the biggest challenge for a Maryland team, that has shown to be very undisciplined under Locksley, because even if they have a plan will they be able to execute it. But, I would imagine the plan on offense will be to continually get the ball to their playmakers as they have some very talented wide receivers and running back. Maryland will try to dictate tempo on offense, while on defense they will try to penetrate the gaps to stop the run and then put a lot of pressure on Petras on passing downs. Simple right?
So what is going to happen?:
When Maryland has the ball:
I would imagine Phil is going to play a ton of cover 2 in this game, and probably play a lot more Merriweather than Benson, especially early and on passing downs. Phil will not let Maryland's receiver get over the top on them, so you will see pretty much exclusively 2-high safeties pre-snap. Tag (I am not going to spell it out) does have the ability and the propensity to make the second level throws, and may hit a couple of them, but he will not win the game here. Phil will want him to throw that ball, especially over the middle in the deep zone where Phil has a senior free safety in Koerner, and then the luxury of Belton, Campbell and Jacobs to man that middle. I think Phil will give Tag a lot of different looks in that middle zone and he will have to make the decision to throw the deep out over the corner and away from each safety, or the check down to the running back or the slot. I could see at the beginning of the game that Tag isn't even going to attempt to the deep shot, instead throw those flat routes and wheel routes out of the backfield. Iowa's defensive line will not allow Maryland to run effectively. Their offensive line is not very good in run blocking and they will want to run more out of the spread than more conventional alignments. Iowa's linebackers are going to have a big day in stopping the run game as well as keep Tag in the pocket.
Even though Tag can run, it will rarely be by design and I am sure that the coaches want to use that card sparingly. He is also short, so look for a lot of batted balls at the line of scrimmage as Iowa's defensive line is excellent at getting in the passing lanes and getting their hands up. I would not be surprised to see 5 or 6 tipped passes and these can be game changers, the type of unpredictable play that turns a 24-7 win into a 45-7 win. Also note, Maryland does not utilize the tight ends in a primary package. Their philosophy is to have superior skill position talent and to get them the ball. Phil knows this and will allow them to get the ball but where he wants it to go.
To beat Phil's defense, a team has to make a committed effort to run the ball, get positive yardage and accept that a 3-4 yard gain is a win. This puts teams in 2nd and 6 where both run and pass are on the table, and then 3rd and 2 where the playbook is wide open. And you have to do it going down the long field in a 12-15 play drive. It takes a ton of discipline to do that, and I just don't see Maryland having that discipline or even desire to do that for an entire game. Also, against Phil's defense, Maryland better make their mark and score early because Phil will win the second half, especially if we have a lead and you are 1 dimensional. The depth of our defensive line will really show up in the second half, as Phil makes adjustments to the coverages, confusing Tag, and a worn out o-line won't be as effective.
When Iowa has the ball:
I would imagine that Brian is going to come out early and establish his personnel and his formations by running the ball. It may look frustrating because Maryland will be loading the box on 12 personnel and we will run Goodson to the short side of the field. We will run some sort of stretch play to the wide side, some sort of mis-direction with a counter or a bootleg, and probably some empty on 3rd down with 5 wides. This will all be part of the plan to see how Maryland lines up against it. If somebody lines up wrong and Goodson breaks one, great, that is a bonus, but the whole basis of this offense is to run multiple plays out of the same formations and set up the easy ones. Maryland runs a blitz heavy 3-4 scheme, so this is going to look a lot like Iowa State where you will see 7, 8 and even 9 in the box flowing to the strong side of the formation, penetrate our gaps and have linebackers make plays. However, they are much more undisciplined that Iowa State and over-pursuing this will have grave consequences for them. Establishing all of this early is so important because it will set everything up for us to have a plethora of options later. They will get pressure on Petras, and the non-informed Iowa fans will get restless as Petras takes sacks and throws the ball away, but he is exactly what we need as he doesn't turn it over.
I think that Maryland will really struggle to cover Goodson out of the backfield in the passing game as Maryland's linebackers will have a tendency to get sucked into the action and lose contain out of the backfield. I also think that they will struggle with 12 and 22 personnel packages, and they will struggle to cover LaPorta because I doubt they double him and they don't have anyone that can match up with him. If they try to do that, they will take a defender out of the box which will allow us to run. Whether we go deep and attack the man coverages on the outside will remain to be seen, but what is great is that we did it last week which is pretty much the same as establishing it in this game. They will know that Johnson can run that and Petras can throw it. That alone will be enough to pull a safety over to cover that vertical route, which should open up the seam for LaPorta. Or Lachey as well as he shows to run good routes and has great hands. Also, look for some mis-direction and jet sweeps in the run game with both Tracy and Bruce.
Special Teams:
We all know what we have, but Maryland also has a pretty good punter. Anyone can shank one at any point in time, but he is no slouch. He isn't a game changer like the last guy was, but he can get it down there. However, look for some yardage here on the returns, both because Jones is special and I think this punter is returnable. Their FG kicker is not a strength either.
So what do I see happening?
I see Iowa feeling Maryland out for a quarter and a half or so, then hitting a few chunk plays on designed makeables, then taking the air out of the ball in the second half. The Iowa defense will close in on Tag as the game goes on and force him into some mistakes as he will not be comfortable all night. I don't see Iowa's defense giving up anything in the second half, and Maryland may get 10 on Iowa early as they spread us out. I think this is a get-in, get-out, pedestrian 24-10 game barring a bunch of turnovers, kick returns or blocked kicks.