I've been busy with AAU and Varsity basketball lately so fitting these in when I can.....
I'm separating this section, as I feel pretty strongly about the coaching side of things so want to put more emphasis on this:
- Frustrating stretch of games and disappointing B10 season so far this season, but I think you could argue that 3 of the Top 6 B10 teams starting conference play were bound to find disappointment since every strong team can't have a strong B10 season just based on math. Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State have ended up being those 3 teams at this point.
- I think both the national and local folks have continued to underestimate the loss of CJF, primarily because he's an average looking white kid averaging only 8.7 ppg. However, he was second on the team in effective FG%, and best on the team in turnovers per 40 minutes. When you replace a guy like that with Connor (if you start Keegan at PF) or Joe T, who have the worst effective FG% and turnover % (Connor makes up for it with assists generally) on the team, it's going to affect your flow on offense and allow teams like Indiana and OSU to scheme things that other teams did not dare to try (as Tom's statistics in his thread illustrate).
- One theme in the last 4 games is how physcial Indiana, Illinois and OSU were able to be with Garza. Even before post entry they are leaning on Garza (and he on them) almost all the time and the amount of work it takes to just maintain position much less gain an advantage off the catch is ridiculous. It also makes it more likely Garza will pick up an offensive foul during all the body fighting and hand fighting, or get a rebound foul out of frustration like he did early in this last game (dumb foul - probably cost us the game with just that one foul). I'm not sure if other teams have the personnel to do that but its been a lot more physical the last 4 games than prior games. Just rewatch the games but don't follow the ball, just follow Garza. That OSU freshman is a load, the Indiana guy is someone I would likely elbow in the face if he guarded me in pick up games, and Illinois has the big guy and the Russian. Prior teams would bang with him, but not as consistently or roughly.
- One positive out of all of this is that we are stress testing our bench and testing some combinations and in the long run that will help us by B10 tournament and NCAA tournament time. Testing to see what guys like Ulis and Perkins can give us, in addition to Keegan and Patrick, is pretty important especially with Joe T struggling with turnovers and offensive efficiency. It is costing us a game or two, but might win us a more important game or two down the road.
- You can see Ulis and Perkins getting more comfortable with "game speed" and it is an adjustment even from full practice speed. But they are getting there. I saw Perkins bring the ball up once or twice and thought back to one thread last week where someone talked about Perkins playing PG and was chided for it a bit. Don't think he's a true PG necessarily, but thought that moment was interesting and it seemed he wasn't much taller than Bohannon so even at SG he may be 1-2" shorter than normal. But he's a bit of a bulldog and wants to get inside so he adds a good dimension to the team and seems to play under control when driving unlike Joe T sometimes. Ulis is someone I just like in general based on body movement and language. I think he's going to be pretty good too once he gets more reps.
- Patrick and Keegan seem to have leveled off at a good but not great level. They've sorted out what they can and cannot do and are generally playing under control. Keegans blocks and rebounding are extremely helpful. Patrick had an error in the zone during a key part of the game and gave up a 3 pointer on the baseline - not sure what he was doing there. But he's been rebounding and active, just wish his 3 point shot was about 10% better.
- Joe W played pretty well I thought - not going to complain in this thread. He kept us afloat when Garza was out - I believe I read that Iowa went 4-18 to finish the half with Garza out and Joe W had all 4 FG's.
- Nunge seems to be a mixed bag each game - brilliant in stretches and then gaps. Liked seeing he and Perkins playing at Indiana in their home state, unfortunate we couldn't pull it out.
- Bohannon hit a big 3 even though everyone knew he was taking it. Damn that shot was HARD. I can imagine he's hit about 300 of those over his brothers in the driveway though so no big deal. That's what big brothers are for.
- Loved that double low post screening action for Bohannon late in the game because it looks like the play is for him to come off for a wing or baseline 3 (depending on how the defender goes around the screens) but secondarily it stretches the defense and allows for a nice post feed to Garza who gets a little more space to work. Good stuff.
- Garza is Garza - too bad he missed that close shot late in the game, but he has to bang so much and then pump fake and then avoid 2 shot blockers to even get a 3 foot bank shot off, it's understandable if he misses a few especially when tired. He came on strong in the 2nd half.
- Taking Garza out with 2 fouls probably did cost us the game - part of that was his fault with a dumb rebound foul on the offensive end. With most players the other team won't target you if you have 2 fouls, but Garza they clearly would attack him and get into his body trying to get the 3rd foul on him if left in the game. So I understand why we did it, but at the same time I think it's clear that the end of the 1st half (among others) cost us the game. Maybe Fran will rethink that, but unless you've been a coach and been burned 50 times by handling that the other way it's not so obvious. I'm not sure how many of us actually have an informed position on this type of decision - I've looked at the stats and it's not definitive either way. I likely would have played him a bit more before half, but again I have yet to be burned as a coach on that type of decision.
- Let me put it this way: If Fran kept him in the game and Indiana attacked him off the drive and he picked up his 3rd foul 3 minutes later, and then had to sit a long time, would fans on this board be criticizing him for leaving Garza in? ABSOLUTELY. Screwed either way on this one.
I'm separating this section, as I feel pretty strongly about the coaching side of things so want to put more emphasis on this:
- It's a long season folks. I'm frustrated too, but let the season play out and we'll handle any coaching debates at that time. If you take a stance too early, you're very likely to have egg on your face by the end of the season. These things are a grind and Illinois was in a similar rut a few weeks ago. Let it play out.
- Saying that Fran has taken us as far as he can is ludicrous imo. This program has been on a (slightly uneven) trend up since he's gotten here. The style of play is fan friendly. The talent and depth has continuously gotten better. And this is at a program that is not nearly as strong as most of our fans think it is [SEE IMAGE BELOW REGARDING OLDER COACHES SURVEY]. It's probably in the bottom third of the Big 10 at the time Fran took the job, and is still likely in the bottom half when you look at facilities and everything. Yes, we aren't as good on defense as people want, but that's as much to do with the type of player Fran can recruit to Iowa recently than it is Fran's ability to coach defense in a vacuum. He has recruited more to offense and that shows up statistically - consistently Top 10 in offensive efficiency. But that type of player may not be great on defense, which also shows up statistically - Top 80-120 defensively. It's easy to say "we need to get better on defense' but then you have to recruit different players. Should have have recruited more Joe T's? That's fine, but then we'd rank Top 50 offensively and Top 50 defensively and STILL be a Top 25 program not a Top 5 program. THERE ARE TRADEOFFS. He is building us to a point where we MIGHT SOON be able to land Top 80 players from out of state, which is what a program like Iowa needs to do in order to get players who are both good on offense AND on defense. We're not there yet, so please don't be so quick to push the eject button. Pushing the eject button now is just as likely to relegate us to Lickliter / Alford type seasons as it is to take us a notch higher. I've lived through enough "rebuilds' or "we need someone to take us to the next levels" to know that there is a trap in that thinking - especially those of us who said the EXACT SAME DAMN THING when Tom Davis couldn't get us past the 2nd round.
- Fran has 2 kids on this team and 1 in the wings. The young roster looks talented and fun to watch. We are having a good season (still a 4 seed in Lunardi!) and we are on the cusp of breaking through to the 4 and 5 star out of state recruits. DON'T PANIC!
- When we get CJF back, and with more seasoning of Perkins and Ulis, I think we are poised for a run in the B10 tournament and still sit very good for a Sweet 16 birth regardless of our final regular season finish. We easily could have won 2 or 3 of these last 4 games even with a starter out in the toughest conference in the country. Small things will make a big difference - wait and see.
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