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Michigan -7.5

I’m thinking 25 points wins the game for Iowa. Michigan might get to 24 but if Iowa’s running game is going we will try to keep the clock rolling, shorten the game and make JJ McCarthy to make throws all day.
I’m more concerned if Iowa can stop the run all day. Will be a slugfest.

i'd say 20 points is the mark I would want to eclipse. Iowa is 54-7 SU since 2015 when hitting that mark, they are 10-16 when held under 20.

Overall under KF, when they score 20 they are 151-40 SU [94-16 SU at Home] and they are 21-58 SU [12-23 SU at Home] when they score under 20.
 
i'd say 20 points is the mark I would want to eclipse. Iowa is 54-7 SU since 2015 when hitting that mark, they are 10-16 when held under 20.

Overall under KF, when they score 20 they are 151-40 SU [94-16 SU at Home] and they are 21-58 SU [12-23 SU at Home] when they score under 20.
Your stats back up my gut. If Iowa can score enough to get into the 20s, they win this thing. I think they win if it's within one score, too.
 
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i'd say 20 points is the mark I would want to eclipse. Iowa is 54-7 SU since 2015 when hitting that mark, they are 10-16 when held under 20.

Overall under KF, when they score 20 they are 151-40 SU [94-16 SU at Home] and they are 21-58 SU [12-23 SU at Home] when they score under 20.
The irony being here, and I think another poster mentioned this, is that IF you think Iowa wins this, then it would be dumb NOT to bet the under coupled with it.

The PSU game in 2017 would have been a win at 19-15 [would have been under 20 if last pass not caught]. And the Michigan game in 2016 was 14-13.

So in 'big games' hitting 20 doesn't have to happen to win, but given our defense, we still have to find a way to get there just in case we surrender 29 first downs as we did vs PSU in 2017 [mainly Barkley]. That killed our defense stamina for that final drive - and damnit we still almost stopped them. I thought I heard someone that was there in person say if Anthony Nelson doesn't bat that ball down on that last set of downs, that the ball was overthrown and that Hooker would have had the pick. The video on youtube doesn't confirm/deny that, but damnit.
 
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Unfortunately, I was in Ann Arbor a couple of years ago when our defense played great, but Michigan beat the Hawks 10-3 in an ugly, ugly game. I think we may be in for something similar this Saturday, with the Iowa defense and special teams keeping the team in it all day; but ultimately not having enough offense to pull out the win.

I'm going with a score of around 17-9 for the bad guys. Hope like hell that I am wrong though...
 
Unfortunately, I was in Ann Arbor a couple of years ago when our defense played great, but Michigan beat the Hawks 10-3 in an ugly, ugly game. I think we may be in for something similar this Saturday, with the Iowa defense and special teams keeping the team in it all day; but ultimately not having enough offense to pull out the win.

I'm going with a score of around 17-9 for the bad guys. Hope like hell that I am wrong though...

We probably win that game if we don't have those pesky 4 turnovers in the first half. That was bruttal.
 
… the Iowa defense and special teams keeping the team in it all day; but ultimately not having enough offense to pull out the win.

I'm going with a score of around 17-9 for the bad guys. Hope like hell that I am wrong though...
 
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The irony being here, and I think another poster mentioned this, is that IF you think Iowa wins this, then it would be dumb NOT to bet the under coupled with it.

The PSU game in 2017 would have been a win at 19-15 [would have been under 20 if not caught]. And the Michigan game in 2016 was 14-13.

So in 'big games' hitting 20 doesn't have to happen to win, but given our defense, we still have to find a way to get there just in case we surrender 29 first downs as we did vs PSU in 2017 [mainly Barkley]. That killed our defense stamina for that final drive - and damnit we still almost stopped them. I thought I heard someone that was there in person say if Anthony Nelson doesn't bat that ball down on that last set of downs, that the ball was overthrown and that Hooker would have had the pick. The video on youtube doesn't confirm/deny that, but damnit.
I like Iowa with points and the under as a parlay for this one.

Iowa may not win, but I think they will hold Michigan's offense mostly in check.

I expect someone to win by single digits without scoring more than 20-24 points max.
 
I like Iowa with points and the under as a parlay for this one.

Iowa may not win, but I think they will hold Michigan's offense mostly in check.

I expect someone to win by single digits without scoring more than 20-24 points max.
Agree with this. Iowa has not given up more than 24 points at Kinnick in its last 20 home games (dating back to the start of the 2019 season).
 
i'd say 20 points is the mark I would want to eclipse. Iowa is 54-7 SU since 2015 when hitting that mark, they are 10-16 when held under 20.

Overall under KF, when they score 20 they are 151-40 SU [94-16 SU at Home] and they are 21-58 SU [12-23 SU at Home] when they score under 20.
@NaptownMDHawk2 OT but do you do all your own sports betting research or do you have sites/sources you really on?
 
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What amount of time of possession wins games not just this week, but all year? 25 minutes? That leaves defense out there a lot, but it might be enough. What does that look like?

If the Hawks get at least 13 drives, is 12 first downs enough for a game? In terms of eating clock, a 12 yd completion on 1st down (not that this happens all that much) doesn't do as much, but it does help flip the field. Sacks basically = end of drives on any down. That's what I fear out of end arounds/reverses too. I'd rather see screens if a team is overpursuing. For what little upside there is to utilizing WR to run the ball, loss of yardage ends drives.

I like the stats behind 20 points winning games, but I honestly think 17 wins almost every game this year with the exception of OSU. That's about as KF/Iowa style as it gets. Think this really fits with how the offense is run no matter what the personnel has been or who the coordinator is. Not sure how realistic it is to get 17 points off 12 first downs, but those two things probably fit in with everyone's prediction of low scoring = IA cover and under.

I'm not saying Petras is the answer, but it seems like he has far less risk of turning the ball over, which again fits the style KF goes for. If the QB doesn't turn it over, we're winning the turnover stat most games. KF has earned enough of my respect to trust his style and decision when it comes to who gives the best chance to win games. I also find it interesting that I don't hear any players now or from last year that are saying the change should be made. It would be surprising to me that current players would be that disrespectful to do it publically, but I'd be shocked that we wouldn't get some rumblings with the sources or people on this board who claim to have "inside info."

Defense is elite, but the special teams have the opportunity to get close to that level too. Not just TT, return teams and FG units have the ability to change games. Also penalties haven't been a huge factor in determining games up to this point.

My hope for the weekend would be a 13-10 win for the Hawks, but my pick is probably closer to 24-10 Michigan. If I were making "bold predictions" I would guess the Hawks will get screwed on 2 pass interference calls, 1 review goes against the Hawks, and Michigan uses at least 1 backup QB due to either ineffectiveness or injury.

Go Hawks!
 
What amount of time of possession wins games not just this week, but all year? 25 minutes? That leaves defense out there a lot, but it might be enough. What does that look like?

If the Hawks get at least 13 drives, is 12 first downs enough for a game? In terms of eating clock, a 12 yd completion on 1st down (not that this happens all that much) doesn't do as much, but it does help flip the field. Sacks basically = end of drives on any down. That's what I fear out of end arounds/reverses too. I'd rather see screens if a team is overpursuing. For what little upside there is to utilizing WR to run the ball, loss of yardage ends drives.

I like the stats behind 20 points winning games, but I honestly think 17 wins almost every game this year with the exception of OSU. That's about as KF/Iowa style as it gets. Think this really fits with how the offense is run no matter what the personnel has been or who the coordinator is. Not sure how realistic it is to get 17 points off 12 first downs, but those two things probably fit in with everyone's prediction of low scoring = IA cover and under.

I'm not saying Petras is the answer, but it seems like he has far less risk of turning the ball over, which again fits the style KF goes for. If the QB doesn't turn it over, we're winning the turnover stat most games. KF has earned enough of my respect to trust his style and decision when it comes to who gives the best chance to win games. I also find it interesting that I don't hear any players now or from last year that are saying the change should be made. It would be surprising to me that current players would be that disrespectful to do it publically, but I'd be shocked that we wouldn't get some rumblings with the sources or people on this board who claim to have "inside info."

Defense is elite, but the special teams have the opportunity to get close to that level too. Not just TT, return teams and FG units have the ability to change games. Also penalties haven't been a huge factor in determining games up to this point.

My hope for the weekend would be a 13-10 win for the Hawks, but my pick is probably closer to 24-10 Michigan. If I were making "bold predictions" I would guess the Hawks will get screwed on 2 pass interference calls, 1 review goes against the Hawks, and Michigan uses at least 1 backup QB due to either ineffectiveness or injury.

Go Hawks!

Dayum, that last paragraph by Mr. Basketball is really specific.
 
@NaptownMDHawk2 OT but do you do all your own sports betting research or do you have sites/sources you really on?
I have a really, really big spreadsheet containing a ridiculous amount of info, some have said non-relevant info. But I like to track it.

Tell me a situation and I can give you odds on Iowa dating back to the start of KF, some of my data is limited beyond 2003, but it is quite extensive. It's about 85 different data points.

For most games since the onset of YouTube, I also have quick links to team pages, box scores, and typically a 20 min condensed video of the game.
 
Here is a screenshot of part of it - it extends on for more columns to the right. And apologies for the lack of data input into the last games of 2021 & first few of 2022 - I have been extremely busy with my own extracurriculars which just concluded this last weekend [35+ Baseball World Series in Myrtle Beach]

Iowa-Data-Base.png
 
Here is a screenshot of part of it - it extends on for more columns to the right. And apologies for the lack of data input into the last games of 2021 & first few of 2022 - I have been extremely busy with my own extracurriculars which just concluded this last weekend [35+ Baseball World Series in Myrtle Beach]

Iowa-Data-Base.png
Do you happen to do day trading, charts look similar
 
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I have a really, really big spreadsheet containing a ridiculous amount of info, some have said non-relevant info. But I like to track it.

Tell me a situation and I can give you odds on Iowa dating back to the start of KF, some of my data is limited beyond 2003, but it is quite extensive. It's about 85 different data points.

For most games since the onset of YouTube, I also have quick links to team pages, box scores, and typically a 20 min condensed video of the game.
Iowa's record as a dog at home coming off road wins?

Too much detail?
 
Iowa's record as a dog at home coming off road wins?

Too much detail?

First of all, Iowa as a home dog doesn't happen often, so finding one that matches a road win that preceded that week was a good one @J_Heater

Here are the only examples that meet exactly as you say [home dog following a road win]. Below that are others that meet that general description [home dog following a road game - the results of both notwithstanding]:

Exactly Meets J_Heaters Request - Iowa in that home game is: 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS [All 4 opponents were ranked in that home game] the years being 2015/2014/2007/200 - the last three not exactly our best years.

J-Heater-Request.png


Closely meets, but not exact: Iowa in that home game is: 9-3 SU & 8-1-3 ATS [9 of the 12 opponents were ranked in that home game]- You will see why they are close, but not the same. Some are neutral site games as the 'home' team, some are road losses that preceded being a home dog.

J-Heater-Request-v2.png
 
I forgot to disclose, the two examples on my sheet where they are not underdogs in that home game [2004 Wisconsin & Purdue] Iowa is listed as a slight favorite -3 & -2 respectively.

However, I remember those games and there were many under-the-table bookies that had Wisconsin/Purdue either as pickems or some favored in other parts of the country.

Which is crazy to think that before the true dawn of online betting/websites how wide a given line could be depended on the bookie.
 
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I forgot to disclose, the two examples on my sheet where they are not underdogs in that home game [2004 Wisconsin & Purdue] Iowa is listed as a slight favorite -3 & -2 respectively.

However, I remember those games and there were many under-the-table bookies that had Wisconsin/Purdue either as pickems or some favored in other parts of the country.

Which is crazy to think that before the true dawn of online betting/websites how wide a given line could be depended on the bookie.
Hey Naptown,

Thanks for all the info Would be curious on the following data:

Iowa is a home dog to the same team the lost to a year prior.
(variation - they lost by double digits a year prior)

Curious on the KF revenge factor. :)

Thanks!
 
hang tight
I didn't have time to look at all revenge games, so I shortened it to revenge games for double digit losses the year before. Iowa/KF is 13-9 SU [12-9-1 ATS] in those situations. In Kinnick 10-7 SU [8-8-1 ATS].

*Year listed below is the year after we were beat by DD & the result of that 'payback' game*

  • L 2001 ISU
  • W 2001 IU
  • W 2004 MSU
  • W 2004 Purdue
  • L 2005 Mich
  • L 2006 OSU
  • W 2007 NW
  • W 2007 MInn
  • W 2008 IU
  • W 2008 PSU
  • W 2008 Purdue
  • L 2012 PSU
  • W 2012 MSU
  • L 2012 Neb
  • W 2013 NW
  • W 2013 Mich
  • W 2017 OSU* (Next time we played them from '13)
  • L 2014 Wisc
  • W 2015 Minn
  • L 2017 PSU
  • L 2018 Wisc
  • L 2019 Wisc
  • ? 2022 Purdue
  • ? 2022 Wisc
  • ? 2022 Mich
 
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Does nobody think that the Michigan D might score?
Gee, I don't know professor. Yes? No? Maybe? Kinda hard to count defensive scores in a run up to any game. I didn't think we'd get two against Rutgers. And since we generally (no guarantee) tend to take care of the ball, it's not something I would write in stone as part of an outcome since it's rare, even for a team like us, who does get a lot of takeaways.
 
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I didn't have time to look at all revenge games, so I shortened it to revenge games for double digit losses the year before. Iowa/KF is 13-9 SU [12-9-1 ATS] in those situations. In Kinnick 10-7 SU [8-8-1 ATS].

*Year listed below is the year after we were beat by DD & the result of that 'payback' game*

  • L 2001 ISU
  • W 2001 IU
  • W 2004 MSU
  • W 2004 Purdue
  • L 2005 Mich
  • L 2006 OSU
  • W 2007 NW
  • W 2007 MInn
  • W 2008 IU
  • W 2008 PSU
  • W 2008 Purdue
  • L 2012 PSU
  • W 2012 MSU
  • L 2012 Neb
  • W 2013 NW
  • W 2013 Mich
  • W 2017 OSU* (Next time we played them from '13)
  • L 2014 Wisc
  • W 2015 Minn
  • L 2017 PSU
  • L 2018 Wisc
  • L 2019 Wisc
  • ? 2022 Purdue
  • ? 2022 Wisc
  • ? 2022 Mich
That's good stuff there. Looks like KF is 0 for on the last 3 revenge games and 1-4 in the last five games. Time to start a new trend! Iowa is still getting 68% of money with just 39% of bets.

I would not be surprised if we see an OSU (17), USC type of game but ultimately this will be the first big test for both teams so who knows. (One could argue ISU was for Iowa but Nico, Brecht are back now and OL has a few games under their belt) I like Iowa +11 and also Iowa ML.
 
That's good stuff there. Looks like KF is 0 for on the last 3 revenge games and 1-4 in the last five games. Time to start a new trend! Iowa is still getting 68% of money with just 39% of bets.

I would not be surprised if we see an OSU (17), USC type of game but ultimately this will be the first big test for both teams so who knows. (One could argue ISU was for Iowa but Nico, Brecht are back now and OL has a few games under their belt) I like Iowa +11 and also Iowa ML.
This is partly true [1-4 in last 5 games] but in sequence/chronological order, you could squeeze the OSU game in there and he is 2-3 in his last 5. Liars figure, and figures lie [or something like that].

I just think that KF & Kinnick has a mystique to it. I think the Michigan team will be a little rusty coming in having played their first 4 games at home. I like that their first road contest is at Kinnick. Be loud and let the sun F them Up.
 
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@NaptownMDHawk2 where does the late money come in on Saturday? I can’t imagine it grows beyond -11 at Kinnick. My gut says it ends up around -9.5.

As long as the money stays heavier on Iowa vs the number of bets on Michigan. I could see the number staying at/above 10.

I guess if I were surprised by anything, it is that the O/U line hasn’t moved much. Maybe the safest play is the under here for the sharps out there, and they are waiting for weather reports. Looks like possible rain for IC today/tonight right?

IF you think Iowa is in this game competitively (Barring a 2010 MSU / 2017 OSU performance) I would feel comfortable with an O/U number around 40.

Iowa is good against ranked opponents at home, and the under has hit in 5/7 - OSU being the anomaly for one of those overs.

Under is probably a 75% to hit at 42.5
 
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Accuweather has 2% chance of rain, but who knows for sure ... I'll bring my rain gear to keep the rain away.

BTW, I watched the first half of the BTCG last night. Everyone remembers the 2 huge plays that M caught Iowa on to go up 14-0, however, Iowa missed on the trick play which was setup perfect. Iowa should have been down 14-10 at half. Granted, the D wore out in the 4th quarter, but the game was still a game through the 3rd quarter ... again, I'm projecting to this year based on looking at that game and I think Kinnick and the D for Iowa coupled with 1st year QB at M gives me hope that Iowa can pull this upset off tomorrow. Go Hawks!
 
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