MLB Draft Watch - Iowa Players

AuroraHawk

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Forgot to post this in here yesterday.

Kyle -

If what I was just told (by someone whom I believe to be reliable) is true, Brecht has had recent discussions with a particular MLB team and that team has thrown out a "if we offered you $X, would you sign with us?" I'm not going to mention what "X" was . . . but, if it is as represented, there is 0% chance that Brecht becomes a Hawkeye. "X" is real money and I'd be willing to bet "X" (if I had that kind of dough) that Brecht wouldn't turn down that kind of offer even when it would require him to give up his dream of playing football at Iowa.

I'll just add that "X" was north of what Baumler was offered.

This person also told me that Brecht is no longer pitching for Ankeny this year. Barring a Draft Day calamity, he's pitched his last high school game. Consistent with what I was told, Brecht didn't pitch in his scheduled start last night.

Take it FWIW.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Kyle -

If what I was just told (by someone whom I believe to be reliable) is true, Brecht has had recent discussions with a particular MLB team and that team has thrown out a "if we offered you $X, would you sign with us?" I'm not going to mention what "X" was . . . but, if it is as represented, there is 0% chance that Brecht becomes a Hawkeye. "X" is real money and I'd be willing to bet "X" (if I had that kind of dough) that Brecht wouldn't turn down that kind of offer even when it would require him to give up his dream of playing football at Iowa.

I'll just add that "X" was north of what Baumler was offered.

This person also told me that Brecht is no longer pitching for Ankeny this year. Barring a Draft Day calamity, he's pitched his last high school game. Consistent with what I was told, Brecht didn't pitch in his scheduled start last night.

Take it FWIW.
Definitely something to monitor if he continues to not pitch for Ankeny. If he is done pitching for Ankeny then it’s a done deal.
 
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Definitely something to monitor if he continues to not pitch for Ankeny. If he is done pitching for Ankeny then it’s a done deal.

Baumler signed for $1.5 million. So that gives us an idea. I’d say what @AuroraHawk hearing is probably accurate. Brecht is probably not coming to Iowa. It’s a bigger blow for baseball than football, but hopefully the coaches know this and are actively seeking someone to fill his spot in the class.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Baumler signed for $1.5 million. So that gives us an idea. I’d say what @AuroraHawk hearing is probably accurate. Brecht is probably not coming to Iowa. It’s a bigger blow for baseball than football, but hopefully the coaches know this and are actively seeking someone to fill his spot in the class.
Going to be interesting because Brecht would have been on football scholarship, so losing him does not give you baseball scholarship money room.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Definitely something to monitor if he continues to not pitch for Ankeny. If he is done pitching for Ankeny then it’s a done deal.
Brody did pitch last night vs Marshalltown, so that is a good sign. Next game is vs Ames on July 6.
 

AuroraHawk

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Brody did pitch last night vs Marshalltown, so that is a good sign. Next game is vs Ames on July 6.

Certainly calls into question the accuracy of what I was told earlier this week . . . and, to be frank, if the dollar value of what was purportedly identified by a MLB team was accurate, I wouldn't expect him to still be pitching for Ankeny. Unless, of course, he intends to keep pitching until he has a "firm" offer on the table that couldn't be withdrawn or modified.
 

AuroraHawk

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What is the chance that Brody Brecht ends up at iowa

I'll be looking at (1) which team drafted him; (2) what round they drafted him and (3) who did that team draft ahead of him (as in did they draft college seniors who have little to no leverage and could be convinced to sign below slot deals or did they draft guys who will need to sign at or above slot to convince them to forgo going to college or returning to college).
 

KyleHuesmann

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I'll be looking at (1) which team drafted him; (2) what round they drafted him and (3) who did that team draft ahead of him (as in did they draft college seniors who have little to no leverage and could be convinced to sign below slot deals or did they draft guys who will need to sign at or above slot to convince them to forgo going to college or returning to college).
He is making his decision before the draft, so he either goes to the draft or goes to Iowa. There will be no getting drafted and coming to Iowa anyway scenario.

I expect the decision to come the next couple days (7/7-10) Ankeny plays Ames tonight, so that is why I did not expect anything the last day or two.

As for our chances of landing him? I’m optimistic. He seems really set on playing football at Iowa and recently tweeted at Cooper DeJean saying that he was excited to join the Hawkeye family with him. Would be weird to tweet that and then announce you aren’t coming a week later.


However, all it takes is one of the 30 MLB teams to throw out a huge number he can’t refuse. I said 55% chance in my article a while back and I’ll hold firm on that lean and say 60-65%.
 
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AuroraHawk

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He is making his decision before the draft, so he either goes to the draft or goes to Iowa. There will be no getting drafted and coming to Iowa anyway scenario.

I expect the decision to come the next couple days (7/7-10) Ankeny plays Ames tonight, so that is why I did not expect anything the last day or two.

As for our chances of landing him? I’m optimistic. He seems really set on playing football at Iowa and recently tweeted at Cooper DeJean saying that he was excited to join the Hawkeye family with him. Would be weird to tweet that and then announce you aren’t coming a week later.



However, all it takes is one of the 30 MLB teams to throw out a huge number he can’t refuse. I said 55% chance in my article a while back and I’ll hold firm on that lean and say 60-65%.

Why would he provide a definitive response one way or the other? Unless he has a committed deal in place with a MLB team, there is zero (absolutely ZERO) upside to making a definitive decision. Unless, of course, it is not really definitive and is simply for more bargaining leverage.

See, i.e. Josh Bell. He was definitely going to college and instructed teams not to draft him until the Bucs drafted him early in the second round and wrote a big check.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Why would he provide a definitive response one way or the other? Unless he has a committed deal in place with a MLB team, there is zero (absolutely ZERO) upside to making a definitive decision. Unless, of course, it is not really definitive and is simply for more bargaining leverage.

See, i.e. Josh Bell. He was definitely going to college and instructed teams not to draft him until the Bucs drafted him early in the second round and wrote a big check.
I have no idea. I’m just saying what I know. Brecht will make a decision in the coming days.
 

AuroraHawk

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I have no idea. I’m just saying what I know. Brecht will make a decision in the coming days.

Kyle -
Upon re-reading my post, I can see how you thought that the question was directed to you or was somehow challenging the veracity of what you wrote. Mea culpa. Didn't have any such intention.

It was intended to be more of a comment upon whether that was a wise strategy by "Team Brecht."

Unlike the NBA draft, baseball players need not "declare" their intentions and either enter the draft or withdraw from consideration. Thus . . . there is no question in my mind that some team in some round will select Brecht.

Once that happens, the question will be whether that team offers sufficient $$$$ to lure Brecht from attending the U of Iowa to play football and baseball.

Let's say that Brecht says "I do not intend to sign a contract with any MLB team. I'm going to the University of Iowa to fulfill my dream of playing for Coach Ferentz and Coach Heller." (A) That is not binding upon Brecht. (B) It "informs" MLB teams that it is going to take significant $$$ to sign him (akin to the Josh Bell "route").

Let's say that Brecht says "I do not intend to attend the University of Iowa. I intend to sign with the MLB team that drafts me." (A) That is not binding upon Brecht. (B) That seems to undercut his "leverage;" if he admits to casting aside the scholarship offer, it suggests that he's willing to sign whatever may be offered to him and/or that his commitment to U of Iowa is "soft" or can be more easily "bought."

If Brecht says "I'm going to the U of Iowa," I'm won't be convinced unless and until either (a) he steps foot on campus or (b) the MLB drafting him starts signing other players at or above slot.

If Brecht says "I'm going to MLB," I'm convinced that he's got at least one proposed "firm" deal in place with a potential MLB team. I.e. that a team . . . let's say the Rockies ;) . . . has informed him that they will draft him and he's agreed to a set dollar amount (assuming no team drafts him before the Rockies).
 

KyleHuesmann

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Kyle -
Upon re-reading my post, I can see how you thought that the question was directed to you or was somehow challenging the veracity of what you wrote. Mea culpa. Didn't have any such intention.

It was intended to be more of a comment upon whether that was a wise strategy by "Team Brecht."

Unlike the NBA draft, baseball players need not "declare" their intentions and either enter the draft or withdraw from consideration. Thus . . . there is no question in my mind that some team in some round will select Brecht.

Once that happens, the question will be whether that team offers sufficient $$$$ to lure Brecht from attending the U of Iowa to play football and baseball.

Let's say that Brecht says "I do not intend to sign a contract with any MLB team. I'm going to the University of Iowa to fulfill my dream of playing for Coach Ferentz and Coach Heller." (A) That is not binding upon Brecht. (B) It "informs" MLB teams that it is going to take significant $$$ to sign him (akin to the Josh Bell "route").

Let's say that Brecht says "I do not intend to attend the University of Iowa. I intend to sign with the MLB team that drafts me." (A) That is not binding upon Brecht. (B) That seems to undercut his "leverage;" if he admits to casting aside the scholarship offer, it suggests that he's willing to sign whatever may be offered to him and/or that his commitment to U of Iowa is "soft" or can be more easily "bought."

If Brecht says "I'm going to the U of Iowa," I'm won't be convinced unless and until either (a) he steps foot on campus or (b) the MLB drafting him starts signing other players at or above slot.

If Brecht says "I'm going to MLB," I'm convinced that he's got at least one proposed "firm" deal in place with a potential MLB team. I.e. that a team . . . let's say the Rockies ;) . . . has informed him that they will draft him and he's agreed to a set dollar amount (assuming no team drafts him before the Rockies).
Yeah the way I understand it at this point is that if he announces he is coming to Iowa that will be pretty set even if a team offers a large amount. That’s just the feeling I get. I think he plans to be committed to his decision.

I’m sure teams are giving him an idea numbers wise right now. Also I didn’t think you were directly asking me that question I was just saying that the info I have available to me is that he is making a decision before.

Should get the answer here within a couple days.
 
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AuroraHawk

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I don’t know. I assume any time, but I am not really sure at this point.
Tick tock . . time is dwindling!!!
I don't particularly care whether he makes an announcement at all other than for the strategic intrigue that it my provide.
 

AuroraHawk

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CBS Sports has Brecht as one of its 4 most "polarizing" prospects. The comment about


Brody Brecht, RHP, Ankeny HS (IA)​

We'll end with another late-rising riddle of a player in Brecht, who did not make the cut for the top 50. He's a 6-foot-4 right-hander with a steep release point from which he throws an upper-90s fastball and a promising slider. He also has a commitment to play wide receiver at the University of Iowa.

Teams are working with limited looks and impressions of Brecht, meaning his expected landing spot is all over the place. A team that believes in his (however raw) ability and his signability could pop him earlier than expected to snatch him away from the Hawkeyes.
 
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KyleHuesmann

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Checked in with Brecht today. He says he is waiting till after the draft to make a final decision now. I am assuming this means teams could only give him ballpark money amounts and he was not able to get a definitive answer on if those $ amounts were what he wanted.
 

AuroraHawk

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I know where I’d put my money if forced to bet. Put it this way ... after tomorrow, Ankeny’s chances of winning the state tournament take a big hit.
 

AuroraHawk

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So . . . again . . . I'm not going to post the amount of money that was purportedly discussed between a particular MLB club and "Team Brecht." What was told to me was significantly north of what was accepted by Baumler last year.

I have now heard from a number of others regarding the team and don't feel like it necessarily needs to be quiet (hell . . . I hinted at it above).

If what I heard about a team in discussion was accurate, "Team Brecht" has spoken to representatives from the Rockies.

If you look at slot money budgets (https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-draft-bonus-slots), the Rockies have $10.5M to spend.

Their first pick, Benny Montgomery, is a top high school outfielder. As the #8 overall pick, "slot" for Montgomery is just about $5.2M.

MLB.com ranked Montgomery as the #15 overall prospect. He previously committed to attend University of Virginia.

Slot money for #15 is $3.885M. Could the Rockies save some "slot" money by picking Montgomery and paying him closer to $3.885M (#15 money) as opposed to the $5.2M (#8 money)?

From what I've read, Montgomery is considered to be a "high risk/high reward" pick. That written, I simply cannot believe that the Rockies would have picked him with the #8 pick (higher than projected) without having serious conversations about money in advance. At #8, the Rockies cannot (assuming that they have any degree of competence) "take a flier" and risk not signing their first-round/top-10 pick.

How might this impact Brecht (again, assuming that the Rockies are the team "in play")? Second round slot money for the Rockies is a tad under $1.7M. Third round slot money for the Rockies is a tad under $784K.

Let's say that the Rockies sign Montgomery for an even $4M. That's a tad over #15 money. It would save the Rockies $1.2M in their "slot" budget. If you added the saved $1.2M to their second round "slot" money, the Rockies would have about $2.9M to spend (assuming that they paid "slot" for every other selection; "slot" only applies to the first 10 rounds). History tells us that it is not uncommon for teams to not sign every player that they draft in the first 10 rounds. Thus, the Rockies - if they really want Brecht - could easily spend $3M . . . . if they save $$$ on the Montgomery signing and take Brecht in Round 2.

If the Rockies (again, assuming that they are the team "in play") don't select Brecht in Round 2, then it gets interesting. Round 2 "slot" is just under $1.7M. Unless the Rockies pick a college senior with no options other than sitting out a year, they are likely going to have a hard time signing a second round pick for an amount significantly under "slot."

That written, let's say they can sign Montgomery for $4M and their second round pick for $1.5M. That leaves them with $5M in "slot" budget for the balance of their draft. If they pick Brecht, would they be willing to pay him $3.5M? $3M? $2.5M? $2M? At $3.5M, they'd have used up $9M of their $10.5M budget. At $2M, they'd have used up $7.5M of their budget.

Keep in mind that the Orioles picked Baumler in the 5th round and paid him $1.5M. However, they had extra $$$$ in their budget because of what was perceived to be a "reach" with their #1 pick (#2 overall) who was a college player. They saved about $2.5M off of slot which freed up money to sign other players to above slot. Here's how it broke down:

#1 (college) - $2.5M below slot
#1(a) (college) - slot
#2 (college) - slot
#3 - (college) $100K above slot
#4 (high school) - $1.2M above slot
#5 (high school) - $1.0M above slot

Thus . . . by saving $$$ with the #1 pick, the Orioles were able to sign their #4 and #5 picks by going well above "slot."

If "Team Brecht" is willing to accept Baumler-like money, I'd be willing to bet good money that he'll be drafted and sign. If he's really looking for the type of money that I've heard to be discussed with the Rockies, I think that the second round will be the key round to watch. If he's picked (regardless of the team), take a peek at who that team drafted in Round #1. What that player a college Senior? Does that player have signability issues?

Today should tell us a lot about not only where Brecht is drafted but what kind of $$$ might be available to sign him.
 
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AuroraHawk

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FWIW, I tried to run a Google search for highest above-slot signings since MLB went to its current system. I thought that I'd come across a list but didn't find one. The highest I could find is $2.33M by the Astros for Kaz Cameron who was the #37 overall pick. In that year, they went $1.5M below slot after selecting/signing Alex Bregman as the #2 overall pick in the 2015 draft.
 

KyleHuesmann

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So . . . again . . . I'm not going to post the amount of money that was purportedly discussed between a particular MLB club and "Team Brecht." What was told to me was significantly north of what was accepted by Baumler last year.

I have now heard from a number of others regarding the team and don't feel like it necessarily needs to be quiet (hell . . . I hinted at it above).

If what I heard about a team in discussion was accurate, "Team Brecht" has spoken to representatives from the Rockies.

If you look at slot money budgets (https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-draft-bonus-slots), the Rockies have $10.5M to spend.

Their first pick, Benny Montgomery, is a top high school outfielder. As the #8 overall pick, "slot" for Montgomery is just about $5.2M.

MLB.com ranked Montgomery as the #15 overall prospect. He previously committed to attend University of Virginia.

Slot money for #15 is $3.885M. Could the Rockies save some "slot" money by picking Montgomery and paying him closer to $3.885M (#15 money) as opposed to the $5.2M (#8 money)?

From what I've read, Montgomery is considered to be a "high risk/high reward" pick. That written, I simply cannot believe that the Rockies would have picked him with the #8 pick (higher than projected) without having serious conversations about money in advance. At #8, the Rockies cannot (assuming that they have any degree of competence) "take a flier" and risk not signing their first-round/top-10 pick.

How might this impact Brecht (again, assuming that the Rockies are the team "in play")? Second round slot money for the Rockies is a tad under $1.7M. Third round slot money for the Rockies is a tad under $784K.

Let's say that the Rockies sign Montgomery for an even $4M. That's a tad over #15 money. It would save the Rockies $1.2M in their "slot" budget. If you added the saved $1.2M to their second round "slot" money, the Rockies would have about $2.9M to spend (assuming that they paid "slot" for every other selection; "slot" only applies to the first 10 rounds). History tells us that it is not uncommon for teams to not sign every player that they draft in the first 10 rounds. Thus, the Rockies - if they really want Brecht - could easily spend $3M . . . . if they save $$$ on the Montgomery signing and take Brecht in Round 2.

If the Rockies (again, assuming that they are the team "in play") don't select Brecht in Round 2, then it gets interesting. Round 2 "slot" is just under $1.7M. Unless the Rockies pick a college senior with no options other than sitting out a year, they are likely going to have a hard time signing a second round pick for an amount significantly under "slot."

That written, let's say they can sign Montgomery for $4M and their second round pick for $1.5M. That leaves them with $5M in "slot" budget for the balance of their draft. If they pick Brecht, would they be willing to pay him $3.5M? $3M? $2.5M? $2M? At $3.5M, they'd have used up $9M of their $10.5M budget. At $2M, they'd have used up $7.5M of their budget.

Keep in mind that the Orioles picked Baumler in the 5th round and paid him $1.5M. However, they had extra $$$$ in their budget because of what was perceived to be a "reach" with their #1 pick (#2 overall) who was a college player. They saved about $2.5M off of slot which freed up money to sign other players to above slot. Here's how it broke down:

#1 (college) - $2.5M below slot
#1(a) (college) - slot
#2 (college) - slot
#3 - (college) $100K above slot
#4 (high school) - $1.2M above slot
#5 (high school) - $1.0M above slot

Thus . . . by saving $$$ with the #1 pick, the Orioles were able to sign their #4 and #5 picks by going well above "slot."

If "Team Brecht" is willing to accept Baumler-like money, I'd be willing to bet good money that he'll be drafted and sign. If he's really looking for the type of money that I've heard to be discussed with the Rockies, I think that the second round will be the key round to watch. If he's picked (regardless of the team), take a peek at who that team drafted in Round #1. What that player a college Senior? Does that player have signability issues?

Today should tell us a lot about not only where Brecht is drafted but what kind of $$$ might be available to sign him.
Jaden Hill goes 44th to the Rockies
 

AuroraHawk

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Rockies take Jaden Hill from LSU with their 2nd Round pick. Hill is a Junior so he can go back to LSU if he doesn't like what the Rockies offer. Not exactly a "sign below slot" pick.

Slot money for Round #3 is $784K.
 
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AuroraHawk

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I'm keeping my eyes on the Brewers today. They selected two college pitchers on Day #1 and that strategy screams "save slot money early; pay over slot later." They just took another college pitcher in the second round. May be worth watching . . . .

EDIT: Both pitchers selected by the Brewers yesterday are juniors so they can go back to college if they desire. Their first pick was ranked as #11 but the Brewers drafted him #15. That may not be a great "under slot" signing but their first round competitive balance pick yesterday was definitely a "under slot" pick. Ranked #57, picked at #51. The Brewers' second round pick is also a definite "under slot" pick. College senior (no leverage) and ranked #102 - selected at #51.

Watch the Brewers . . . they might start drafting high-end HS players if they feel they have extra slot money to spend.

Third round slot money starts at $870K (Pirates) and drops to $577K (Dodgers). To get "Baumler-money" ($1.5M), a third rounder would have to receive about $630K to $923K above slot. That, IMO, remains very much in play. In contrast, given slot money for Round 3, I'm having a hard time believing that he's going to get the number that I previously was told.

Strange dynamic to consider . . . you think that Heller is watching this and saying to himself . . . "please don't pick him, please don't pick him, please don't pick him." ?
 
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