So . . . again . . . I'm not going to post the amount of money that was purportedly discussed between a particular MLB club and "Team Brecht." What was told to me was significantly north of what was accepted by Baumler last year.
I have now heard from a number of others regarding the team and don't feel like it necessarily needs to be quiet (hell . . . I hinted at it above).
If what I heard about a team in discussion was accurate, "Team Brecht" has spoken to representatives from the Rockies.
If you look at slot money budgets (
https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-mlb-draft-bonus-slots), the Rockies have $10.5M to spend.
Their first pick, Benny Montgomery, is a top high school outfielder. As the #8 overall pick, "slot" for Montgomery is just about $5.2M.
MLB.com ranked Montgomery as the #15 overall prospect. He previously committed to attend University of Virginia.
Slot money for #15 is $3.885M. Could the Rockies save some "slot" money by picking Montgomery and paying him closer to $3.885M (#15 money) as opposed to the $5.2M (#8 money)?
From what I've read, Montgomery is considered to be a "high risk/high reward" pick. That written, I simply cannot believe that the Rockies would have picked him with the #8 pick (higher than projected) without having serious conversations about money in advance. At #8, the Rockies cannot (assuming that they have any degree of competence) "take a flier" and risk not signing their first-round/top-10 pick.
How might this impact Brecht (again, assuming that the Rockies are the team "in play")? Second round slot money for the Rockies is a tad under $1.7M. Third round slot money for the Rockies is a tad under $784K.
Let's say that the Rockies sign Montgomery for an even $4M. That's a tad over #15 money. It would save the Rockies $1.2M in their "slot" budget. If you added the saved $1.2M to their second round "slot" money, the Rockies would have about $2.9M to spend (assuming that they paid "slot" for every other selection; "slot" only applies to the first 10 rounds). History tells us that it is not uncommon for teams to not sign every player that they draft in the first 10 rounds. Thus, the Rockies - if they really want Brecht - could easily spend $3M . . . . if they save $$$ on the Montgomery signing and take Brecht in Round 2.
If the Rockies (again, assuming that they are the team "in play") don't select Brecht in Round 2, then it gets interesting. Round 2 "slot" is just under $1.7M. Unless the Rockies pick a college senior with no options other than sitting out a year, they are likely going to have a hard time signing a second round pick for an amount significantly under "slot."
That written, let's say they can sign Montgomery for $4M and their second round pick for $1.5M. That leaves them with $5M in "slot" budget for the balance of their draft. If they pick Brecht, would they be willing to pay him $3.5M? $3M? $2.5M? $2M? At $3.5M, they'd have used up $9M of their $10.5M budget. At $2M, they'd have used up $7.5M of their budget.
Keep in mind that the Orioles picked Baumler in the 5th round and paid him $1.5M. However, they had extra $$$$ in their budget because of what was perceived to be a "reach" with their #1 pick (#2 overall) who was a college player. They saved about $2.5M off of slot which freed up money to sign other players to above slot. Here's how it broke down:
#1 (college) - $2.5M below slot
#1(a) (college) - slot
#2 (college) - slot
#3 - (college) $100K above slot
#4 (high school) - $1.2M above slot
#5 (high school) - $1.0M above slot
Thus . . . by saving $$$ with the #1 pick, the Orioles were able to sign their #4 and #5 picks by going well above "slot."
If "Team Brecht" is willing to accept Baumler-like money, I'd be willing to bet good money that he'll be drafted and sign. If he's really looking for the type of money that I've heard to be discussed with the Rockies, I think that the second round will be the key round to watch. If he's picked (regardless of the team), take a peek at who that team drafted in Round #1. What that player a college Senior? Does that player have signability issues?
Today should tell us a lot about not only where Brecht is drafted but what kind of $$$ might be available to sign him.