After the Spencer news there are 2 options for this team. Cry on their pillows or crank it up to the maximum and get extra motivated to perform their best and see what happens. I admittedly tend to be pessimistic but I think they can still get it done and it would be a beautiful sight to hand that trophy to Spencer at the end of the season.
Moving forward....
- Thread starter MVPFAN
- Start date
Option one isn’t an option. Crank it up.
Iowa has a great bunch of younger guys coming and will be just fine. Look at the difference in how Iowa’s backups wrestled yesterday at the Scuffle compared to PSU guys. Iowa will be fine. As for this years team race, I honestly think it’ll be a true 3 team race in Detroit. Whoever steps up and performs under the bright lights is gonna raise the hardware.
That's because the majority of PSU's young backups are now the starters. Unlike Iowa, Penn state is a very young team.
Ewing theory potential for this team for sure. I see them making it a tight title race. March is gonna be fun!
This will be tough on DA also. I would think his plan was to develop for a year with Spencer and be ready to go after it next year. If he does go a year earlier than expected and Spencer does come back, then I imagine one of them have to move up to 133. I dont see DA wrestling this year then sitting next year. If he burns it, I dont think he is ever going back to the bench.
I agree. The margin of error just got razor thin though. They need Austin to perform like last year, 141, 165, and 174 in the finals, and 197 and 285 as high AA. Drake will have to go at 125 and manage 10 points or more. If they get another 10 points out of 149, 157, and 184 combined that would put us around 120 for a team. That will be right there. You get what you earn.
KY needs to wake up and get on his horse.
I have to believe that Drake and his family always knew this was a possibility. Spencer’s situation was never a secret inside the room.
Furthermore, I can GUARANTEE you Drake ain’t scared!
Iowa | Ceiling | Floor | Reasonable expectation
125: Drake | 4/5th 9-13 pts | 0-2 pts | 8th 5-6 pts
133: ADS | 1-3rd. 15-23 pts | 4/5th 11-14 pts | 3rd 16 pts
141: JE | 1st. 22-25 | 4th . 13-15 | 1st/2nd 18 - 23 pts
149: MM. | 4/5th 9-11 pts | 0-2 pts | R12 2 pts
157: KY | 5th/6th 8-9 pts | 0-2 pts | R12/ 8th 2-6 pts
165: Bull | 1st. 21-23 | 4th 12-13 pts | 2nd-4th 12-17 pts
174: Kem | 1st 21-23 | 4th 12-13 pts | 2nd-4th 12-17 pts
184: AA | 6-8 5-7 pts | 0-2 pts | R12/8th 2- 5pts
197: JW. | 1-3rd 13-22 pts | 6th. 8 pts | 4-6th 8- 13 pts
285: Cass | 3rd/4th 13-15 | 5th/6th 8-10 pts | 3rd/4th 13-15 pts
Total | 151 - 171 | 64 - 81 | 90- 120
PSU
125: Hilde | 4th 12-14 pts | 1-2 pts | 6th/7th 8-10 pts
133: RBY | 1st 21-23 | 3rd 13-15 pts | 1st/2nd 19-22 pts
141: N Lee | 1st 22-24 | 3rd/4th 13-17 pts | 1st/2nd 19-23 pts
149: BB | 5th-6th 8-9 pts | 0-2 pts | 6th/7th 8-10 pts
157: Negron | 2 Pts | 0 | R12/R16 1-2
165: Edsell | 2 pts | 0 | R12/R16 1-2
174: C-Star | 1st 21-23 | 4th 12-15 pts | 1st/2nd 19-22 pts
184: Brooks | 1st 22-24 | 3rd 14- 16 pts | 1st/2nd 19-22 pts
197: Dean | 1st 21-24 | 3rd/4th 14-16 pts | 2nd-4th 12-17 pts
285: Kerk | 3rd/4th. 13-15 | 6/7th. 6-8 pts | 4th/5th 11-13 pts
Totals | 144 - 160 | 73 - 91 | 117 - 143
There is obviously a lot of variance to the above. The title is still within reach, but we need the good guys to perform exceptionally well. We Know PSU will show up strong to the tourny.
(Please do not take this as a prediction of any outcome, It is meant to give us a more clear picture on the team race and what we need to happen in order to still pull out the title).
Edit: apologies for the shitty formatting
125: Drake | 4/5th 9-13 pts | 0-2 pts | 8th 5-6 pts
133: ADS | 1-3rd. 15-23 pts | 4/5th 11-14 pts | 3rd 16 pts
141: JE | 1st. 22-25 | 4th . 13-15 | 1st/2nd 18 - 23 pts
149: MM. | 4/5th 9-11 pts | 0-2 pts | R12 2 pts
157: KY | 5th/6th 8-9 pts | 0-2 pts | R12/ 8th 2-6 pts
165: Bull | 1st. 21-23 | 4th 12-13 pts | 2nd-4th 12-17 pts
174: Kem | 1st 21-23 | 4th 12-13 pts | 2nd-4th 12-17 pts
184: AA | 6-8 5-7 pts | 0-2 pts | R12/8th 2- 5pts
197: JW. | 1-3rd 13-22 pts | 6th. 8 pts | 4-6th 8- 13 pts
285: Cass | 3rd/4th 13-15 | 5th/6th 8-10 pts | 3rd/4th 13-15 pts
Total | 151 - 171 | 64 - 81 | 90- 120
PSU
125: Hilde | 4th 12-14 pts | 1-2 pts | 6th/7th 8-10 pts
133: RBY | 1st 21-23 | 3rd 13-15 pts | 1st/2nd 19-22 pts
141: N Lee | 1st 22-24 | 3rd/4th 13-17 pts | 1st/2nd 19-23 pts
149: BB | 5th-6th 8-9 pts | 0-2 pts | 6th/7th 8-10 pts
157: Negron | 2 Pts | 0 | R12/R16 1-2
165: Edsell | 2 pts | 0 | R12/R16 1-2
174: C-Star | 1st 21-23 | 4th 12-15 pts | 1st/2nd 19-22 pts
184: Brooks | 1st 22-24 | 3rd 14- 16 pts | 1st/2nd 19-22 pts
197: Dean | 1st 21-24 | 3rd/4th 14-16 pts | 2nd-4th 12-17 pts
285: Kerk | 3rd/4th. 13-15 | 6/7th. 6-8 pts | 4th/5th 11-13 pts
Totals | 144 - 160 | 73 - 91 | 117 - 143
There is obviously a lot of variance to the above. The title is still within reach, but we need the good guys to perform exceptionally well. We Know PSU will show up strong to the tourny.
(Please do not take this as a prediction of any outcome, It is meant to give us a more clear picture on the team race and what we need to happen in order to still pull out the title).
Edit: apologies for the shitty formatting
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And be the same wrestler? I don’t think so. Burn Drakes shirt, he has a damn good chance to be an all American as a true freshman. That’s a great outcome.
And here we go with the wild weight cutting ideas. What about PK at 125???
Anyway, why is it OK to burn Cullen’s redshirt but not Ayala’s? Ayala is closer to the podium than Schreiver, regardless.
I personally feel that Michigan will have a lot of guys miss AA status and keep them down (Lewan, Storr, C Amine, maybe Massa and Ragusin as well)
Why? Nick Lee, Rutherford and countless others have used this approach and it lead to very successful outcomes.
I often wonder if getting a full year of what the big boys are like and then a redshirt year after to tighten it up isn’t a great approach for some. By some I mean some like Ayala who seems Top-15 already. Not someone who is going to get killed their Freshman year and mentally lose it.
Wild? He is a 33, do you not understand simple math?
Cullen is a redshirt freshman so taken his shirt already compared to Drake who is a true freshman. You’d think a fan would know that.
I posed a question didn’t suggest that is what should happen.
CS got a free year last year like everyone else and still has a redshirt available
It’s wild from the standpoint that a full size 133 pound 5th year senior who hasn’t wrestled as light as 125 since high school 5 years ago is a wild suggestion. Obviously, the PK comment was hyperbole.
And no one redshirted last year. It was a free year. Cullen’s been competing unattached and his redshirt remains.
Yep. No doubt Spencer's knees HAD to be part of the conversation. Ybarra probably was too, and Drake knew that coming in and still came. Drake came into a great situation, learn behind Spencer and get ready to roll for 2022/2023. I don't see any scenario where he doesn't get his redshirt pulled now, and he's certainly capable of making the podium, just not likely as high as it would be if he had a chance to sit and then go.
Even if you let Ybarra go and keep the redshirt on (NQ at best from what I've seen), Ayala loses a year of competition sitting behind Spencer (assuming he is surgically repaired and makes it thru the year). Drake isn't a big 125, can't see a scenario where he'd bump up and try 133 for a year, and Schreiver is no joke (but never say never I guess).
Bad deal all the way around, but Iowa has options and they're going to have to be executed unfortunately.
Yes to a point you’re correct. But psu will lose 2 of their biggest point scorers after this year with a lot of other question marks. RBY says he’s done, Nick Lee is done, 125 transfer leaves. Kerkvliet is very injury prone and has bigger plans than college wrestling. Berge left a huge hole at 157 and Facundo isn’t developing like many would have thought yet. Honestly I’d give Iowa the slight edge next year too. Good time to be a college wrestling fan.
No way is Michigan the team to beat. It's PSU, but certainly possible for Iowa (or Michigan) to do it.
With Lee out, Iowa and PSU look very even in the team point race when you factor in likely bonus points.
Assuming Ayala is the replacement:
125: + PSU (but I wouldn't count on it)
133: + PSU (slim because DeSanto is a bonus machine)
141: = (Eierman more bonus; flip a coin who places higher)
149: + Iowa
157: + Iowa
165: + Iowa
174: = (But until Kemerer wrestles, who knows what we'll get)
184: + PSU
197: = (Dean looking more dominant thus far..)
285: = (Gotta go with Cass until proven otherwise, but I don't think the gap is as wide this season)
Assuming Ayala is the replacement:
125: + PSU (but I wouldn't count on it)
133: + PSU (slim because DeSanto is a bonus machine)
141: = (Eierman more bonus; flip a coin who places higher)
149: + Iowa
157: + Iowa
165: + Iowa
174: = (But until Kemerer wrestles, who knows what we'll get)
184: + PSU
197: = (Dean looking more dominant thus far..)
285: = (Gotta go with Cass until proven otherwise, but I don't think the gap is as wide this season)
Great analysis, I pretty much agree with all of this. Interesting that PSU is higher on the "reasonable expectation," but Iowa has a higher ceiling. I guess because PSU has 4 guys whose "reasonable expectation" is 1st/2nd so not much more ceiling higher than that.
I think our bonus potential could get it done for us.
125 with Ayalas puts us about even with the F*** st boys
133 we should also stay pretty close and could pass them the way DeSanto has looked.
141 both Jayden and Lee look a bit off, Like above Jayden should keep pace and/or could win it.
149 This is a weight class that has to get us a few more points then the F*** guys
157 Another weight where we should be out pacing them but as of late, Young has not looked up to speed. Is Kennedy an option???
165, The Bull has to get it done. We need to and should score a lot more points here.
174 Lets all hope that KemDawg is back on the mat soon!!! He keeps pace here
184 Need someone to step up, Brands , Swafford, get us some points
197 Warner has always some how managed to get on the podium while at times making you scratch your head. He should beat Dean, but this remains to be seen.
Heavy Big Cass I believe will out score kerk.
I can see us putting up more bonus at 133, 141, 165, 174, and heavy. Obviously seeding will be a huge factor.
125 with Ayalas puts us about even with the F*** st boys
133 we should also stay pretty close and could pass them the way DeSanto has looked.
141 both Jayden and Lee look a bit off, Like above Jayden should keep pace and/or could win it.
149 This is a weight class that has to get us a few more points then the F*** guys
157 Another weight where we should be out pacing them but as of late, Young has not looked up to speed. Is Kennedy an option???
165, The Bull has to get it done. We need to and should score a lot more points here.
174 Lets all hope that KemDawg is back on the mat soon!!! He keeps pace here
184 Need someone to step up, Brands , Swafford, get us some points
197 Warner has always some how managed to get on the podium while at times making you scratch your head. He should beat Dean, but this remains to be seen.
Heavy Big Cass I believe will out score kerk.
I can see us putting up more bonus at 133, 141, 165, 174, and heavy. Obviously seeding will be a huge factor.
Probably not a possibility without Kem. Just saying. Would need huge jumps at 149 and 184 to make that up.
Maybe he doesn’t need the slimming effect of the black singlet.
Lots of hand-wringing and silly speculation (ADS to 25, cmon man) over a situation that has only one reasonable outcome. If we want to compete for a title Ayala will be our 125 this year and RS next year If Spencer is back.
I’m sure this has already been hashed out with coaches, Ayala and his family before this announcement was made.
For what it’s worth I think Ayala with a few more matches beats hilabrant and will beat McKee next time they meet
Hildabrant is very good on top. That’s not a good position for Drake in that matchup.
Is your glass always half empty, Damn have a cocktail.
The optimist says the glass is half full. The pessimist says the glass is half empty. The engineer says it is the wrong glass.
Well, if I hear much more about injuries to our team, my beer glass will be filled as often as I can get it filled.
There's lots to get disappointed about everywhere, but let's look for positive developments.
Kem has battled injuries forever, and hasn’t wrestled yet this year. It’s not pessimistic to say we could get zero out of 174; it’s just acknowledging reality.
EDIT
But I will take your cocktail advice.
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He will start against Minny, this was the plan from go. My guess is that after all these years they have learned get him ready late and then unleash the hounds.
