My analysis of the upcoming Iowa season

[tony0051]

It is obvious to most, if not all who follow Iowa football that the biggest issue that Iowa had last year was on defense.

Iowa lost 4 games last season when they scored 24+ points and 2 games when they scored 30+. Under Ferentz Iowa has NEVER lost that many games in a season when scoring 24+. They have not lost 2 games when scoring 30+.

We saw in the spring practices a vast improvement at LB from Jewell, Bower and Niemann.

Defensive line will be stout again with Johnson and Bazata moving seamlessly into the starting rotation.

Mabin and Lomax saw first real action in the secondary last yr. And while they made some plays they also made a lot of mistakes. I would expect them to be much better this season than last especially in the run game.

Overall, I would expect this D to be a typical Kirk D. About 375 yds and 18-20 pts/game.

Two starting tackles need to be replaced but let's be honest, when was the last time we saw Kirk not have good tackles on offense? Answer, never. Won't happen. The line will be solid as usual.

CJ will be a big upgrade at QB this season. People forget, we should be comparing CJ to the 2013 version of Jake. CJ is every bit the passer Jake was as a RS soph with a much better running game. This Iowa team will be able to run zone read and bootlegs more often with some big plays like what Wiscy had with McEvoy last season.

RB should be good with a chance at special. The depth of options running the ball is way more than last year. Parker, Wadley, Canzeri and Mitchell JR gives Iowa a speed group and vertical threat they haven't had in the past. Wheel routes against LB's. Not a LB in the world that can run with Parker or Mitchell JR. Daniels will be the main horse but he will get 200 touches max this year. Expect to see Iowa with more big plays from these guys.

WR/TE is the worry spot. Five of the top seven catchers from last season are gone or injured. Smith is solid but then what? Big concern about this group from the go.

If Iowa can play good special teams and find some pass catchers, this is a 10+ win team. When we get to 10 wins, Epenesa commits and Iowa has 2 4* recruits for 2017 before X-mas.

 

[Hawk68]

It is obvious to most, if not all who follow Iowa football that the biggest issue that Iowa had last year was on defense.

Iowa lost 4 games last season when they scored 24+ points and 2 games when they scored 30+. Under Ferentz Iowa has NEVER lost that many games in a season when scoring 24+. They have not lost 2 games when scoring 30+.

We saw in the spring practices a vast improvement at LB from Jewell, Bower and Niemann.

Defensive line will be stout again with Johnson and Bazata moving seamlessly into the starting rotation.

Mabin and Lomax saw first real action in the secondary last yr. And while they made some plays they also made a lot of mistakes. I would expect them to be much better this season than last especially in the run game.

Overall, I would expect this D to be a typical Kirk D. About 375 yds and 18-20 pts/game.

Two starting tackles need to be replaced but let's be honest, when was the last time we saw Kirk not have good tackles on offense? Answer, never. Won't happen. The line will be solid as usual.

CJ will be a big upgrade at QB this season. People forget, we should be comparing CJ to the 2013 version of Jake. CJ is every bit the passer Jake was as a RS soph with a much better running game. This Iowa team will be able to run zone read and bootlegs more often with some big plays like what Wiscy had with McEvoy last season.

RB should be good with a chance at special. The depth of options running the ball is way more than last year. Parker, Wadley, Canzeri and Mitchell JR gives Iowa a speed group and vertical threat they haven't had in the past. Wheel routes against LB's. Not a LB in the world that can run with Parker or Mitchell JR. Daniels will be the main horse but he will get 200 touches max this year. Expect to see Iowa with more big plays from these guys.

WR/TE is the worry spot. Five of the top seven catchers from last season are gone or injured. Smith is solid but then what? Big concern about this group from the go.

If Iowa can play good special teams and find some pass catchers, this is a 10+ win team. When we get to 10 wins, Epenesa commits and Iowa has 2 4* recruits for 2017 before X-mas.

 

[Hawk68]

May I have a glass of whatever you are drinking?

 

[89and91]

While all of what the OP said was true I don't think there are many times where everything comes up on the positive side. That would be what needs to take place for this team to win 10 games. Timely assistance from our opponents with turnovers, penalties or injuries would also be welcomed.

 

[B1G]

Best case scenario. If everything falls into place, Iowa will be good. Let's hope!

 

[ChrisVarick]

You list me with "Johnson and Bazaar seamlessly moving into the starting line up". You just don't lose players like Carl Davis and LTP and not miss a step. Also, when was the last time Iowa started two new tackles that have under 50 snaps of experience combined?

 

[Bob Diaco]

You list me with "Johnson and Bazaar seamlessly moving into the starting line up". You just don't lose players like Carl Davis and LTP and not miss a step. Also, when was the last time Iowa started two new tackles that have under 50 snaps of experience combined?

I hate having to defend the ridiculous OP, but those two guys have played a lot more than 50 snaps combined. If you had actually paid attention to the substitution patterns last year you would have noticed that Davis spent A LOT of time on the sideline, including some very key parts of several games.

Inexperience is not something I would worry about with these two guys.

 

[ChrisVarick]

I hate having to defend the ridiculous OP, but those two guys have played a lot more than 50 snaps combined. If you had actually paid attention to the substitution patterns last year you would have noticed that Davis spent A LOT of time on the sideline, including some very key parts of several games.

Inexperience is not something I would worry about with these two guys.

I was talking about the offensive tackle situation where OP said Iowa has never had issues at the offensive tackle position. I don't worry that much about the starting DTs but to think there won't be a drop off is foolish. The bigger concern is the lack of depth behind the starting DTs. Hopefully Faithe comes around. Parker Hesse came in as 215 pound LB with only D2 offers a year ago and is now in the 2 deeps at DT.

 

[AIC hawk]

I was talking about the offensive tackle situation where OP said Iowa has never had issues at the offensive tackle position. I don't worry that much about the starting DTs but to think there won't be a drop off is foolish. The bigger concern is the lack of depth behind the starting DTs. Hopefully Faithe comes around. Parker Hesse came in as 215 pound LB with only D2 offers a year ago and is now in the 2 deeps at DT.

He's a backup DE, and I agree, if he sees anything outside of garbage time, we are screwed. We're fine at DT.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

Linebackers were definitely an eye sore weakness last year. With that said, some of the responsibility for Iowa's defensive woes should be put on the offense. Iowa offensively went 3 and out way too often and kept the defense on the field too long and put them in bad situations time and time again. I think the defense will be improved slightly (hopefully) but it would go a long way if Iowa's offense this season will help them out.

So offensively...hmmm...so hard to predict what to expect this year. Let's be real, there isn't any skill position player from last year's squad who has graduated or is no longer with the team who will be that sorely missed. Most likely CJ Beathard will be a strong upgrade at the QB position if for no other reason than he will make plays with his legs. Plus, I think Iowa will stretch the field more this season which should mean (especially with a fullback no longer playing halfback) the running game should open up more. If, and this is a big if, Iowa can find a way to be balanced on offense, and CJ Beathard is able to make plays with his legs to keep drives alive, which he is going to have to do quite a bit, then there's reason to believe Iowa can be somewhat competent on offense this season. If that happens, and Iowa gets breaks like we have seen during a couple magical seasons in the past, especially on special teams, it's certainly not that far of a stretch to think Iowa could have a pretty good record by the end of the year.

I know the past few seasons make it easy to predict doom and gloom, but I think there are reasons to be hopeful for a good season (like 9-3, 10-2, or miraculously better). In the past, Kirk Ferentz's best seasons have been when Iowa wasn't highly regarded and the schedule was relatively soft. I know people have concerns about the offensive line, but I believe with a couple games of experience they will be fine. In truth, I really don't think there have been too many seasons when on paper Iowa had superior talent or even really good talent. The only seasons that come to mind (on paper) were 2005 and 2010 and Iowa had a disappointing season both years.

It should be interesting how this season plays out. If Ferentz has another mediocre or bad season, which in truth might be best for the program long term, assuming it leads to Ferentz's resignation or removal, then there is no question Ferentz has lost touch with the modern game and needs to step down. The schedule is too soft this year not to have a good record. One thing I will say, in conclusion, if Ferentz does have a very good year, which is possible, it's very unlikely he will sustain that level of success in the upcoming seasons. So as bad as this sounds it might be best long term for the program if Iowa does have a mediocre or poor season, provided it leads to Ferentz's removal. I just don't see him having any reasonably consistent level of success ever again.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

He's a backup DE, and I agree, if he sees anything outside of garbage time, we are screwed. We're fine at DT.

Who knows. A lot of players who came in as projects ended up being decent players for Iowa. I agree there needs to be a talent upgrade in the way of recruiting, but just because a player doesn't come in highly regarded doesn't mean he didn't outwork others and do whatever was necessary to put himself in a position to crack the two-deep and be a solid contributor.

 

[MadDogC]

If CJ stays healthy we should win eight...lose him and we are toast...

 

[redout]

Iowa will be lucky if they are not 0-3 to start the season. Illinois St. is a solid team and for some time Iowa has struggled or lost to teams such as this. Iowa travels to Iowa St. which could easily be a loss. Kirk frequently sh%ts the bed against the Cyclones. If they lose either of these games Pittsburgh will be tough.

 

[Rustys Dad]

I like the OP optimism. And no matter how much Hawkeye koolaid I drink I don't see anyway at all this team gets to 10+ wins. I think 6-6 or 7-5 is more realistic (I think Kirk needs at least 8-4 to justify him getting another season). What concerns me about Iowa football is we won 7 games last year with the weakest schedule in my lifetime ... Imagine what Ohio State, MSU would have done to us. And next year the Big Boys start showing back on the calendar.

As much as I would love to 10+ wins ... it is just not reality. This team needs to first learn how to put a team away and not play down to the level of its competition. Losing to ISU and Nebby was inexcusable. Lots of balls would have to bounce Iowa's way to hit 8 wins or more but it all starts with on-the-field coaching by this staff. You simply don't lose to a lowly ISU ... and you don't (almost ... and should have) lose to a Ball State. Always new hope with each new season. So who knows ...

 

[codflyer]

People that are expecting zone read and CJ running all over are going to be very, very disappointed. We had that package last year, and it almost never, ever got used. When it did, it was hardly effective. Sure, it may be better this year...but I doubt it. We are just not a zone-read team, and despite the lore of CJ and his running ability...I have been fairly underwhelmed. Looking back at last year, I actually thought that Jake was the better scrambler of the two, just not as durable. CJ has a little more top end speed for bootlegs and such, but his acceleration and lateral movement is not what is required to be a consistently effective running threat. Plus, there is no way the staff lets him take too many hits running with the ball with our (lack of) depth at the position.

WR and TE will need to step it up, big time, or CJ is going to look a lot like Jake, the ball will just look better coming out of his hand before it hits the ground.

Also, the person who said that the offense went three and out too much last year needs to go back and re-watch. That really wasn't a major issue. We had trouble finishing drives. Sustaining them was not a huge problem. The problems of the defense were pretty squarely on the defense and they need to also make a ton of progress in the off-season to address deficiencies. I think they will be a little better overall this year though. The drop-off at DT will hopefully be offset by the improvement at LB. But, don't expect a classic Norm-style, consistent defense any time soon. This is a much more high-risk, high reward style defense. Faster, more pressure-oriented, more pressing on the corners. Everything people wanted Norm to do. Sometimes it will look absolutely suffocating...other times it will make us pull our hair out. A lot like last year. Hopefully less big plays against us though.

 

[gohawks87]

What concerns me about Iowa football is we won 7 games last year with the weakest schedule in my lifetime ... Imagine what Ohio State, MSU would have done to us. And next year the Big Boys start showing back on the calendar.

We don't play the only 2 good teams in the league (OSU, MSU) next year, either.

We'll have the easiest 9 game schedule of all time in 2016.

 

[Buckwatcher]

I think the most improvement you will see this year is at tailback. I'm sure Mark Weisman was a great guy and a teammate but he should have never been the go to guy at RB. He was a FB. There is a reason why we saw 9 guys in the box against us, because the D knew even if he did break one they could run him down. This also led to more pressure on the QB and he had to get rid of the ball quicker or get his head taken off. Was he reliable yes, but he should have never been a featured back. I think over the last 3 years of having him as the feature is a big reason as to why the hawks didn't win more games. Now did he have his games absolutely but usually against lesser opponents. I think this year with true RBs we are going to see an improvement on offense, especially in the area, of less three and outs. Now may they fumble every once in awhile sure but the ability to take one to the house from 60 yds is a much better possibility.

I really hope we can find a WR, because Smith with be doubled most of the year because not very many teams will be afraid of Vandeburg. Hopefully there is someone in the system that can show promise.

I think the LBs should be better and the secondary should be one of the best in the B1G.

Hopefully the can pull out a 9-3 but you have to figure KF will be out coached in one game and lose one they shouldn't. I look for a 7-5 season and hope to heck I'm wrong and its 9-3 or better.

 

[HoustonHawkeye]

Vandeberg has decent speed. Don't be fooled. But we do need for 1 or 2 of the freshmen WR's to shine. That would help this offense out tremendously. Kittle has great speed for a TE also. We do need for a balance offense, since none of our skill positions are stars.

 

[NomisHawk]

You list me with "Johnson and Bazaar seamlessly moving into the starting line up". You just don't lose players like Carl Davis and LTP and not miss a step. Also, when was the last time Iowa started two new tackles that have under 50 snaps of experience combined?

I don't know if 'seamlessly' is the right word, but I don't think we will see much of a drop-off at tackle, and overall I think we could see improvement on the D-Line. Meier took a big step last year and I think that the rotation and depth at DT is healthy with a very large upside with Johnson, whose level of comfort on the field is higher than his experience level would indicate. Ott will continue to be Ott and could be even more of a difference maker this year. We have seen his production consistently increase through his playing time and I don't think that this year will be any different. Also, a more competent linebacking group will make the D-Line seem even more effective.

I see the same possibility as the OP for a good defense this year. Whether our offensive scheme meshes better and whether we can get another playmaking pass-catcher to step forward are my chief hesitations with saying this will be a successful Iowa squad (8+ wins).

 

[NomisHawk]

I think the most improvement you will see this year is at tailback. I'm sure Mark Weisman was a great guy and a teammate but he should have never been the go to guy at RB. He was a FB. There is a reason why we saw 9 guys in the box against us, because the D knew even if he did break one they could run him down. This also led to more pressure on the QB and he had to get rid of the ball quicker or get his head taken off. Was he reliable yes, but he should have never been a featured back. I think over the last 3 years of having him as the feature is a big reason as to why the hawks didn't win more games. Now did he have his games absolutely but usually against lesser opponents. I think this year with true RBs we are going to see an improvement on offense, especially in the area, of less three and outs. Now may they fumble every once in awhile sure but the ability to take one to the house from 60 yds is a much better possibility.

I really hope we can find a WR, because Smith with be doubled most of the year because not very many teams will be afraid of Vandeburg. Hopefully there is someone in the system that can show promise.

I think the LBs should be better and the secondary should be one of the best in the B1G.

Hopefully the can pull out a 9-3 but you have to figure KF will be out coached in one game and lose one they shouldn't. I look for a 7-5 season and hope to heck I'm wrong and its 9-3 or better.

Absolutely - Mark Weisman was a great football player, but we were forced to take him out of his mold and kept him there a little too long. A run offense built upon a zone-blocking scheme with a back that doesn't have the capability to effectively cut-back and reverse flow severely limits the potential of the offense and doesn't force the defense to play honest. Even if none of the backs have a breakout year, I think that we can expect an uptick in consistent rushing performance.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

Iowa will be lucky if they are not 0-3 to start the season. Illinois St. is a solid team and for some time Iowa has struggled or lost to teams such as this. Iowa travels to Iowa St. which could easily be a loss. Kirk frequently sh%ts the bed against the Cyclones. If they lose either of these games Pittsburgh will be tough.

Illinois St was very good last season and return the Indiana transfer QB Roberson . But I think lot of people forget the fact he lost his top 3 pass catchers plus their stud RB Coprich who had over 2000 rushing yds and beat out David Johnson for Conf player of the year was arrested for drugs this off season for selling to an undercover agent. Even if he isn't kicked off the team I'd be shocked if he wasn't suspended for the first game unless Mark Dantonio decides to leave Sparty for Ill St in the off season.

Iowa will not face the same Ill St team who lost to NDSU in the finals last year. Curious to see where they are in the preseason FBS rankings when they come out and if UNI is ahead of them or not. But I just don't see the Hawks losing to them.

 

[NomisHawk]

People that are expecting zone read and CJ running all over are going to be very, very disappointed. We had that package last year, and it almost never, ever got used. When it did, it was hardly effective. Sure, it may be better this year...but I doubt it. We are just not a zone-read team, and despite the lore of CJ and his running ability...I have been fairly underwhelmed. Looking back at last year, I actually thought that Jake was the better scrambler of the two, just not as durable. CJ has a little more top end speed for bootlegs and such, but his acceleration and lateral movement is not what is required to be a consistently effective running threat. Plus, there is no way the staff lets him take too many hits running with the ball with our (lack of) depth at the position.

WR and TE will need to step it up, big time, or CJ is going to look a lot like Jake, the ball will just look better coming out of his hand before it hits the ground.

Also, the person who said that the offense went three and out too much last year needs to go back and re-watch. That really wasn't a major issue. We had trouble finishing drives. Sustaining them was not a huge problem. The problems of the defense were pretty squarely on the defense and they need to also make a ton of progress in the off-season to address deficiencies. I think they will be a little better overall this year though. The drop-off at DT will hopefully be offset by the improvement at LB. But, don't expect a classic Norm-style, consistent defense any time soon. This is a much more high-risk, high reward style defense. Faster, more pressure-oriented, more pressing on the corners. Everything people wanted Norm to do. Sometimes it will look absolutely suffocating...other times it will make us pull our hair out. A lot like last year. Hopefully less big plays against us though.

I think that CJ will change the feeling of the offense, if not so much the scheme. I think that Jake was being encouraged to (along with it being in his nature) to view a perfect drive as a well-executed 12+ play drive. He very rarely took chances unless the game situation dictated it (we were down by two scores or more). CJ tends to trust the athletes on his team a little more and has a much more relaxed attitude on the field. He is much more willing to improvise and use his legs to extend plays. And with what appears to be an improved D this year, the security will be there to push the envelope a bit more. I think that CJ will come into his own more this year since he is not having to look back over his shoulder or emulate Jake in order to see more playing time. I think we will finally see the type of QB this offensive system needs in order to function well.

 

[iahawkeyes17]

I think that CJ will change the feeling of the offense, if not so much the scheme. I think that Jake was being encouraged to (along with it being in his nature) to view a perfect drive as a well-executed 12+ play drive. He very rarely took chances unless the game situation dictated it (we were down by two scores or more). CJ tends to trust the athletes on his team a little more and has a much more relaxed attitude on the field. He is much more willing to improvise and use his legs to extend plays. And with what appears to be an improved D this year, the security will be there to push the envelope a bit more. I think that CJ will come into his own more this year since he is not having to look back over his shoulder or emulate Jake in order to see more playing time. I think we will finally see the type of QB this offensive system needs in order to function well.

CJ is by no means Brad Banks but he showed in the Tenn game he is pretty athletic and good at scrambling. Which could help the Hawks out and extend more drives this year or even get out of the pocket and make some throws like Drew Tate was so good at doing. One thing I just pray he does is get down early and avoid the big hits because dear lord if he gets hurt it could be a really long season and don't think my liver could take it.

 

[jerbob36]

To me, so much depends on CJ staying healthy. If we get a lead of 3 tds in the 4th quarter of Ill St, his butt better be on the bench. It would be nice to redshirt Boyle, but if CJ goes down, that bumps everybody else up that much closer to PT.

 

[Ed Horton]

Great post OP. I agree with you on defense and about CJ. Look at what happened when we had Tate then look at what happened until we had Stanzi. I think CJ is the same type of game changer for the offense as Tate and Stanzi were. It's alright to be a pessimist, but the guy predicting 0-3 has left the reservation

 

[nu2u]

VandeBerg will have 50+ catches and 7-8 TDs if he (and CJ) stays healthy.

 

[tomhawk80907]

To me, so much depends on CJ staying healthy. If we get a lead of 3 tds in the 4th quarter of Ill St, his butt better be on the bench. It would be nice to redshirt Boyle, but if CJ goes down, that bumps everybody else up that much closer to PT.

I am sure kf has his good "coaching" points just don't ask me what they are. What he is horrid at doing is providing meaningful snaps to backups to get them ready. You do remember JVB taking every snap at QB.

 

[Johnny Polo]

VandeBerg will have 50+ catches and 7-8 TDs if he (and CJ) stays healthy.

LOL

 

[ichawk24]

I hope to see CJB use his legs to extend plays and look downfield, a la Aaron Rodgers, rather than rush attempts. Rush attempts result in hits. Not that extending plays is immune to hits.

 

[nu2u]

Don't doubt me POLO.

 

[HoustonHawkeye]

I too think that KF does a disservice to future teams by not getting reps in for the back up players. Needs to take some risks before halftime and at other appropriate times to get some teaching moments for the backups.