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mystery spread

jhawkinaz

HB MVP
Dec 16, 2012
1,536
2,059
113
I have read a lot this week about how no one understands why the Hawkeyes are 13 point underdogs.

When I first saw the spread I was pretty depressed at the Hawkeye prospects in Madison. But I believe Vegas has set that spread where it is for one reason, because they had to.

Even though we are dialed in to the Hawks since we live in our black and gold fishbowl.........truth is most of the country doesn't know squat about the Hawks (or even give a rip for that matter). I know the OSU game got national attention, but 10 seconds after the Sportscenter clips most people are on to something else.

So that line is for the national betting public, not just people who follow the Big Ten. If they had put it at 4.5 (about where I think it should be), the betting public would have seen a top-ten, undefeated Wisky team playing a 6-3 Iowa team in Madison and loaded hard on Wisky. Then if Wisky happens to blow Iowa out, the book loses big. And they don't like that.

Usually when I see a line that doesn't make sense I say to go against common sense.....or better yet stay away all together.......but every once in a while I think you can look at something that seems like a gift, and it is just that, a gift!

I am not posting this to get anyone put $$ on the Hawks......please don't on my advice, just watch the game and enjoy it.......but I am posting it to say don't worry about the spread when you are wondering if Iowa has a chance to win. They have a great chance, IMO. Go Hawks!!!
 
A Vegas line isn't what they think the outcome will be it is set where they believe 50% will bet each way. Wiscy ave Margin of victory is like 27 pts this year.

I understand this, I guess my point is that while they do it this way for the reasons you stated, they are quite often very close to the actual outcome.......and I believe this is one that will be off by quite a bit. And that if we had the notoriety of Alabama, Oklahoma, or USC they would not have made it such a big spread.
 
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I think a 7.5 point spread would have been optimal. Barring turnovers, penalties, and refs, Wisconsin isn't two touchdowns better than Iowa. Especially not in Madison - Iowa tends to fare better in Camp Randall.
 
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A Vegas line isn't what they think the outcome will be it is set where they believe 50% will bet each way. Wiscy ave Margin of victory is like 27 pts this year.
This is not always true. Vegas occasionally picks a game where they load the bets towards one side. I haven’t look at the distribution on this game, but I’d guess this is one where Vegas is confident in Wisconsin covering
 
This is not always true. Vegas occasionally picks a game where they load the bets towards one side. I haven’t look at the distribution on this game, but I’d guess this is one where Vegas is confident in Wisconsin covering
Correct! Isn't that what it means when it says 70% of public money on Iowa
 
Vegas sees last week as a fluke. We will know by dinner tomorrow night.
 
Usually it means about an hour before game time they come out and announce that Stanley and Wadley are out for the game.
 
Even though the win last week was a decisive win, there are still many who need to see more to be convinced this is nothing more than a fluke. If we win today, then I would say it leaves no doubt this team is for real!
 
This is not always true. Vegas occasionally picks a game where they load the bets towards one side. I haven’t look at the distribution on this game, but I’d guess this is one where Vegas is confident in Wisconsin covering

I actually agree with this. Iowa looks more like a sucker bet to me.
 
People forget that Iowa didn't get beaten by MSU and Northwestern. They lost those games. If Stanley doesn't fumble and Fant catches the ball in OT or one of several other drops Iowa had in either of those games we're looking at a 1 loss Iowa team. Of course, one could make the argument that those screw ups are why the team is improving as well.

/sigh
 
And there you have it. Looks like the spread should hav been much higher. Beat down.
 
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