Honest question...regardless of what happens vs Iowa St. Would anyone be really shocked if we dropped one of these two? Seems like everyone is expecting these two matchups to be relatively easy victories, so I feel it's appropriate to remind everyone that recent history suggests otherwise.
N. Illinois
2013 L 27 - 30
2012 W 18 - 17
2007 W 16 - 3
UNI
2014 W 31 - 23
2012 W 27 - 16
2009 W 17-16
One loss, with three of the five Ws being one-score games (not to mention a fruit salad of other garbage pail performances against inferior opponents over the years).
While I have great respect for UNI and NIU ... I find it intriguing that the majority of the seasons you emphasize correspond to ones where the Hawks had critical issues ... at least early in the season.
2007 - One of Iowa's poorest Ferentz-era teams. The OL was atrocious, we had a first-year QB, and we had massive issues at S.
2012 - We were implementing a new offensive system and, more importantly, the lingo of the O was new to everyone but the OC. On top of that, the '12 D was arguably the worst Ferentz-era D since 2000.
2013 - The Hawks were much improved compared to '12 ... however, we still had a brand-new QB who had no prior experience.
2014 - The Hawks had a somewhat divided locker-room ... and, to make matters worse, the Hawks had a significant transition among the back 7 on D. It's tough on the D when you're brand new at both MIKE and FS.
Obviously, the only "outlier" season listed was the 2009 season. However, even then, the Hawks were contending with a pretty significant issues on the OL - 3 of our returning starters (Bulaga, Calloway, and Vandervelde) were each injured or unavailable ... and that obviously impacted the execution of our O. To make mattes worse for the '09 O, when opening the season, we had to break in all new RBs too ... our starters were a RS FR (Adam Robinson) and a TR FR (Brandon Wegher).
So the big question is ... does the upcoming '18 season have much in common with any of the aforementioned seasons? Apart from us having an obvious downgrade on the interior OL ... we still ought to return an adequate amount of experience on the OL to be pretty solid. There is always the chance for some susceptibility due to injuries ... but, as of now, the situation on the OL seems decent.
How about at QB? There is no QB controversy and Nate Stanley will be a returning starter ... and he's also considered one of the leaders of the team. This consideration alleviates a whole slew of issues present in many of the aforementioned seasons.
In '18, we're entering our 2nd year of Brian's O ... and, what's more, it's essentially a variant of O'Keefe's O ... so it's one that the Ken, Kirk, and Brian are exceedingly familiar with. Now that it is in the second year ... Kelton and Tim are growing more familiar with it too.
The primary similarity that DOES seem to be present is that, like the '14 squad, the Hawks will be having all-new starters at LB. However, as I've posted ad-nauseum in other threads ... most indicators suggest that our LB-situation is far more healthy entering the '18 season than it was in the '14 season. Furthermore, the secondary is much more experienced too.
Lastly, the one season where the Hawks lost ... and it was in a squeaker ... NIU had an other-worldly talented QB.
I expect that both the NIU and UNI squads will challenge the Hawks and force the Hawks to become a better team. However, ultimately, I do not expect any surprises in terms of the eventual outcome. The teams still have to play the game ... (as Appalachian State once proved) ... but I expect the leadership on the Hawk squad to be quite good and they will help keep the Hawks focused.
