Naive Analytics, PSU, and Iowa's D

[ghostOfHomer777]

Method 1:
Use the crude measure of PSU's offensive efficiency by considering the average points per yard over the entire season. Then, from there, you estimate the yardage that they'd likely gain on Iowa. Considering PSU to be akin to Wisconsin in terms of balance .... albeit with more overall talent at the skill position (on average - I agree that Taylor is a stud) ... but less talent on the OL ... I'd estimate that the Hawks might surrender around 400 to 420 yards to PSU.

result: this leads to the prediction of PSU scoring 35 or 36 points

Method 2:
Use the same analysis as above, but only consider PSU's points per yard through B1G play.

result: this leads to the prediction of PSU scoring 30 or 31 points

Method 3:
Suppose that we consider how Iowa's scoring D holds opponents relative to their season averages. If you tabulate the results, you find out that Iowa holds their opponents to a little over 12 points below their season average.

result: given PSU's season average, this leads to the prediction of PSU scoring around 30 points

My Concern:
If Iowa's scoring D still lets PSU score 30 points ... my gut feeling is that that is a losing number for the Hawks. If the Hawks can hold PSU to 21 to 24 points (or fewer) ... those sorts of numbers are more likely to produce a victory.

Also, given how Iowa's D has been improving and given how some of the points scored by Wisconsin and Minnesota were a little fluky ... I'm under the impression that 30 points seems like a high number. I'm thinking that the naïve analytics are just that ... naïve.

Of course, the same sort of reasoning, given how PSU's D has been performing ... that leads to a prediction of Iowa putting up around 30 points (assuming good weather conditions) too.

I don't know ... from the raw analytics ... it seems to me that this game is a pick-em.

 

[Feldbush]

I don't know...from the Maddon analytics...it seems to me that usually the team that scores the most points wins the game.

 

[Pepperman]

I don't know ... from the raw analytics ... it seems to me that this game is a pick-em.

That's kind of how I feel as well. I guess maybe the oddsmakers looked at it from your methods and also thought "hey, PSU is the bigger name and the home team" so they ended up with the original line of -9 or whatever it was. That felt too high given Iowa's recent play and PSU's recent play. Clearly the sports books aren't at a "PICK EM" yet though.

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

Hawks win. No formulas, plots, pie charts or congressional sessions are necessary to make that determination. Have a beer, homer.

 

[LarryMullenJr.]

We are 6-0 this year in games where we have the lead after the fourth quarter.

 

[mrF6n6]

I haven't looked at the stats yet... but I have a feeling Penn State is going to try to out Iowa, Iowa... by beating us with tight ends.. and stopping our tight ends...
Penn State has always prided itself on tight ends and linebackers...

with the inexperience we have at linebackers, I can see Penn State attacking us with their tight ends... and then on defense, loading up to stop our tight ends.

 

[Half-Full Hawk]

Hawks are like 20-0 in recent years when scoring 20+ points. That's the magic number to me. We can hold them at or under 20.

More analytically:

GoH Method 2.5 = PSU points scored in BIG, excluding Illinois (defensively they're a curve-buster), minus 12 points for Iowa kickass D effect.... result is 13 points for PSU.

20-13 Iowa

 

[mikesright]

Iowa’s going to rout Penn State. They’re far worse this year on offense without Barkley. They are overly reliant on McSorley running the football on called pass plays and ZR/RPO. Our guys just need to play contain and we’re really good at that. The big pass plays they normally get won’t be there for him - our DB’s just don’t give enough space and it’s really hard for him to hit windows that aren’t wide open due to his height and the fact he’s never been an accurate passer.

Penn State’s defense is pretty poor this year. They are really weak in pass defense. As long as the weather isn’t completely awful like the MD game, we should have our way with them. Their DL is probably not going to hold up all day if we can grind it a little bit early against them running the football. PSU is a lot like Minnesota game-plan wise on defense - they tend to bring a lot of defenders downhill at the snap on running downs which is effective for them and helps mitigate their relatively poor DL at stopping the run. The side effect is lots of big passing plays working. If you look at the stats each team they’ve played that’s been halfway decent this year has been able to run them off that strategy and have been balanced or even a bit run-heavy by the end of the day.

Iowa 48-Penn State 13

 

[thewop]

Hawks win. No formulas, plots, pie charts or congressional sessions are necessary to make that determination. Have a beer, homer.

Let's wait and see what the IG's report says

 

[thewop]

Iowa’s going to rout Penn State. They’re far worse this year on offense without Barkley. They are overly reliant on McSorley running the football on called pass plays and ZR/RPO. Our guys just need to play contain and we’re really good at that. The big pass plays they normally get won’t be there for him - our DB’s just don’t give enough space and it’s really hard for him to hit windows that aren’t wide open due to his height and the fact he’s never been an accurate passer.

Penn State’s defense is pretty poor this year. They are really weak in pass defense. As long as the weather isn’t completely awful like the MD game, we should have our way with them. Their DL is probably not going to hold up all day if we can grind it a little bit early against them running the football. PSU is a lot like Minnesota game-plan wise on defense - they tend to bring a lot of defenders downhill at the snap on running downs which is effective for them and helps mitigate their relatively poor DL at stopping the run. The side effect is lots of big passing plays working. If you look at the stats each team they’ve played that’s been halfway decent this year has been able to run them off that strategy and have been balanced or even a bit run-heavy by the end of the day.

Iowa 48-Penn State 13

I don't believe you, but I want to.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

I don't know...from the Maddon analytics...it seems to me that usually the team that scores the most points wins the game.

It also helps when you can lower the stats of your opponents' players to make it easier to win........

 

[scotthawk1964]

No need to over analyse, we score more points then Penn State, we win.

 

[richmin3]

Iowa’s going to rout Penn State. They’re far worse this year on offense without Barkley. They are overly reliant on McSorley running the football on called pass plays and ZR/RPO. Our guys just need to play contain and we’re really good at that. The big pass plays they normally get won’t be there for him - our DB’s just don’t give enough space and it’s really hard for him to hit windows that aren’t wide open due to his height and the fact he’s never been an accurate passer.

Penn State’s defense is pretty poor this year. They are really weak in pass defense. As long as the weather isn’t completely awful like the MD game, we should have our way with them. Their DL is probably not going to hold up all day if we can grind it a little bit early against them running the football. PSU is a lot like Minnesota game-plan wise on defense - they tend to bring a lot of defenders downhill at the snap on running downs which is effective for them and helps mitigate their relatively poor DL at stopping the run. The side effect is lots of big passing plays working. If you look at the stats each team they’ve played that’s been halfway decent this year has been able to run them off that strategy and have been balanced or even a bit run-heavy by the end of the day.

Iowa 48-Penn State 13

PSU fan here. I had the same thoughts about MSU after looking at their previous game and the result was a close loss instead of the blowout. This week we'll learn a lot about both teams. I see a close game possibly affected by the weather. Winner of the turnover battle wins this game.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

PSU fan here. I had the same thoughts about MSU after looking at their previous game and the result was a close loss instead of the blowout. This week we'll learn a lot about both teams. I see a close game possibly affected by the weather. Winner of the turnover battle wins this game.

The more the weather affects the game ... the more the score likely contracts down to being a lower scoring affair. Both teams have pretty balanced Os. Iowa's D has been statistically better than PSU's ... but, then again, PSU's squad arguably has more, overall, team speed ... and the game is @Happy Valley ... both of the latter factors favoring the Lions.

I look for a close game ... with factors like field-position, turnovers, and penalties potentially being the difference in the game.

If you asked me before the season ... I was seeing the PSU game as the closest thing to a sure loss for the Hawks. Now, I'm much more hopeful ...

 

[mikesright]

PSU fan here. I had the same thoughts about MSU after looking at their previous game and the result was a close loss instead of the blowout. This week we'll learn a lot about both teams. I see a close game possibly affected by the weather. Winner of the turnover battle wins this game.

If you think PSU’s offense is capable of keeping up in scoring with Iowa, sorry, but you are mistaken. Iowa has a great defense - you should know this as a PSU fan based on how well we played you last year. It took until the final seconds for PSU to score 21 points and that was with Saquon Barkley making plays. Our defense is better than last year and Penn St has not reloaded as well.

You’ll get to know our passing game a little more this time. We’re a balanced football team and I guarantee PSU’s D will not have us stuck up a tree as our OL is giving up the fewest sacks in the Big Ten, about 1/2 sack per game, and we are one of the best teams on 3rd down, in sharp contrast to last year. Good luck, PSU will need it.

 

[Forgery5]

Last year they hammered our defense for four quarters, but our defense is much different this year. Look for Iowa to attack on defense, no more sitting back and getting abused. I think we are much more athletic and now have the ability to take the game to psu.

 

[cheerscoach]

With the weather being 40 degrees and raining at kickoff, turn overs and special teams are going to play a big part in this game.

 

[Ree4]

We are 6-0 this year in games where we have the lead after the fourth quarter.

We do occasionally lose these games though, like Iowa vs Iowa State in 2011

 

[GarryO37]

PSU's defense has not been very good this year. I see this game as a straight PSU offense (#!5 in total offense) vs Iowa defense (#3 in total defense). Fro having the #3 defense in the country, it sure seems like quite a few don't give Iowa's defense a whole lot of credit.

The match up is fairly even. With the weather being what it's going to be, it may favor Iowa's defense. I think it will be another game won at the end much like last year. Hopefully a different outcome. Maybe a 3 point victory in either direction.

Of course I could be wrong and Iowa curb stomps PSU.

 

[bill114]

SP+ predicts
PSU 28
Iowa 23

Recommends taking the Iowa +6.5

 

[DodgerHawki]

Last year they hammered our defense for four quarters, but our defense is much different this year. Look for Iowa to attack on defense, no more sitting back and getting abused. I think we are much more athletic and now have the ability to take the game to psu.

Is our defense different? Perhaps so. I think the improvement in Iowa's D has been the extra year for Epenesa, Hesse, A. Nelson, etc. has made them from good/above average to really good. And the extra growth in the safeties.

If I'm playing devil's advocate, I would say that Wisconsin put up 415 yards and average over 9 yards per passing attempt with Alex Hornibrook at QB. That same Hornibrook was 7 of 20 passing for 100 yards against Michigan.

I like Iowa's defense a lot. If they want to go from a really good defense to great, they have the opportunity to prove it on Saturday. The good news is a pretty pedestrian MSU offense went for 415 yards against PSU, and Indiana put up 550 yards against PSU. I do think Iowa is going to have to score 23+ points to win the game, Penn State will be by far the best offense Iowa has faced. Yes, the freshmen corners have done really well so far, but they haven't been tested yet like they will on Saturday. That's the fun part, we'll find out more about the entire team.

 

[richmin3]

If you think PSU’s offense is capable of keeping up in scoring with Iowa, sorry, but you are mistaken. Iowa has a great defense - you should know this as a PSU fan based on how well we played you last year. It took until the final seconds for PSU to score 21 points and that was with Saquon Barkley making plays. Our defense is better than last year and Penn St has not reloaded as well.

You’ll get to know our passing game a little more this time. We’re a balanced football team and I guarantee PSU’s D will not have us stuck up a tree as our OL is giving up the fewest sacks in the Big Ten, about 1/2 sack per game, and we are one of the best teams on 3rd down, in sharp contrast to last year. Good luck, PSU will need it.

Yeah who can predict? Last year we drove up and down the field with impunity only to stall in the red zone thanks to your D. All Im saying is ya never know.

 

[paladinhawk]

The more the weather affects the game ... the more the score likely contracts down to being a lower scoring affair. Both teams have pretty balanced Os. Iowa's D has been statistically better than PSU's ... but, then again, PSU's squad arguably has more, overall, team speed ... and the game is @Happy Valley ... both of the latter factors favoring the Lions.

I look for a close game ... with factors like field-position, turnovers, and penalties potentially being the difference in the game.

If you asked me before the season ... I was seeing the PSU game as the closest thing to a sure loss for the Hawks. Now, I'm much more hopeful ...

IMO time of possession will be important as well for the Hawks. If they can have some 6 or 7 minute drives than the Penn St offense will have fewer opportunities.

 

[Pepperman]

We do occasionally lose these games though, like Iowa vs Iowa State in 2011

Losing ANY game where the Hawks have the lead AFTER the 4th quarter seems rather impossible to me though. That is one time where I really would want to "fire everyone".

 

[cheerscoach]

Is our defense different? Perhaps so. I think the improvement in Iowa's D has been the extra year for Epenesa, Hesse, A. Nelson, etc. has made them from good/above average to really good. And the extra growth in the safeties.

If I'm playing devil's advocate, I would say that Wisconsin put up 415 yards and average over 9 yards per passing attempt with Alex Hornibrook at QB. That same Hornibrook was 7 of 20 passing for 100 yards against Michigan.

I like Iowa's defense a lot. If they want to go from a really good defense to great, they have the opportunity to prove it on Saturday. The good news is a pretty pedestrian MSU offense went for 415 yards against PSU, and Indiana put up 550 yards against PSU. I do think Iowa is going to have to score 23+ points to win the game, Penn State will be by far the best offense Iowa has faced. Yes, the freshmen corners have done really well so far, but they haven't been tested yet like they will on Saturday. That's the fun part, we'll find out more about the entire team.

The difference in our defense, especially the run defense, has been the play of Brinks and M. Nelson inside. They don't get any love, don't make a lot of tackles, but they have clogged the middle fantastically this year. There is no where to operate in there and the inside LB's have been clean to make plays.

 

[butch25uni]

Losing ANY game where the Hawks have the lead AFTER the 4th quarter seems rather impossible to me though. That is one time where I really would want to "fire everyone".

OT - get ball first kick a field goal, other team gets it and scores TD. How to lose a game with the lead after 4 quarters

 

[TKingpin]

One stat both teams have going for them is 2nd half. Iowa has totally dominated the 3rd quarter in it’s games.

I think I also read where PSU is #1 in the country in total 2nd half scoring. It will be interesting to see who wins the 2nd half. Hopefully It is Iowa! Hopefully we have a lead at halftime and eat a lot of clock in the 2nd half. Their D might get tired legs, since they have played a lot of snaps the last 2 weeks.

Must keep McSorley in the pocket! Must!

 

[Herkmeister]

Think about this: Last year I think we blocked 6 of McSore-Ass' passes. SIX!! And we beat him up pretty good physically.

(Forgive my disrespect, but when McSore-Ass punted the ball after the game last year he revealed his total lack of class. And now, I'm revealing my total lack of class. )

McSore-Ass knows PSU isn't as good as last year. He knows what Iowa brings and he knows the D Line is better. Plus he hated getting all those passes blocked by our height. He knows the trouble Michigan State presented and Iowa is BETTER.

I'd say we're in that little douche bag's head already. And that means...……… if we get to him early he'll press all day. And nobody plays any sport well when they press. On top of that, when the QB loses his swag and energy, it affects the entire team and they lose their swag and energy.

If we come out of the gate like we did with Ohio State, Penn State could have a long day.

Plus, don't think traveling teams don't pull huge energy from a negative crowd. For those who have listened to Tyler Kluver on his podcasts, the Hawkeyes get totally jacked.

We could very well keep that white cloaked crowd awfully quiet.

Certainly we can win. No question. But starting fast may be the most critical of any game this season.

Final point: Weather: 47°, showers and 5 mph wind with gusts to 8 mph. My point? Nate's gonna be able to throw the rock.

Say hello to our little tight ends...……………..

 

[Ree4]

Losing ANY game where the Hawks have the lead AFTER the 4th quarter seems rather impossible to me though. That is one time where I really would want to "fire everyone".

It's not though, look at the scoring summary: We led on two separate occasions in that game after the 4th quarter

Iowa Vs ISU 2011

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Think about this: Last year I think we blocked 6 of McSore-Ass' passes. SIX!! And we beat him up pretty good physically.

(Forgive my disrespect, but when McSore-Ass punted the ball after the game last year he revealed his total lack of class. And now, I'm revealing my total lack of class. )

McSore-Ass knows PSU isn't as good as last year. He knows what Iowa brings and he knows the D Line is better. Plus he hated getting all those passes blocked by our height. He knows the trouble Michigan State presented and Iowa is BETTER.

I'd say we're in that little douche bag's head already. And that means...……… if we get to him early he'll press all day. And nobody plays any sport well when they press. On top of that, when the QB loses his swag and energy, it affects the entire team and they lose their swag and energy.

If we come out of the gate like we did with Ohio State, Penn State could have a long day.

Plus, don't think traveling teams don't pull huge energy from a negative crowd. For those who have listened to Tyler Kluver on his podcasts, the Hawkeyes get totally jacked.

We could very well keep that white cloaked crowd awfully quiet.

Certainly we can win. No question. But starting fast may be the most critical of any game this season.

Final point: Weather: 47°, showers and 5 mph wind with gusts to 8 mph. My point? Nate's gonna be able to throw the rock.

Say hello to our little tight ends...……………..

The Hawks certainly managed to get into the head of Daryl Clark back in '08 and '09 ....