Nate Stanley will shatter once thought untouchable Chuck Long School Record

[Franisdaman]

Chad Leistikow‏Verified account@ChadLeistikow 8h8 hours ago
With back-to-back seasons with 26 touchdown passes, Nate Stanley has 52 for his career and is within striking distance of Chuck Long's once-thought-untouchable school mark of 74 TD passes. In fact, he could shatter it.

1 reply1 retweet23 likes


Also, since Nate is just a 3 year starter, lets look at Chuck's last 3 years at iowa and Nate's projected stats for his last 3 years at Iowa.

The yards are nearly identical.

The TD/INT ratio? Wow. Nate by a landslide.


Comp..Att..Pct.....Yds...Yds/Att....TD...INT...Player
666..1,145..58%....8,136......7.1......78.....26...Nate
591.....909..65%....8,281......9.1......62.....36...Chuck


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nathan-stanley-2.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/chuck-long-1.html

 

[K OKeefe]

Everyone know that Nate Stanley is the best QB Iowa has ever had. In fact it is not even close.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

If Stanley stays healthy, he probably will break the record but, as of now, he's nowhere near the college QB Chuck Long was. Which once again shows why stats are so often vastly misleading.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

Nate has already shattered Chuck's wide open receiver overthrown record.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

If Stanley stays healthy, he probably will break the record but, as of now, he's nowhere near the college QB Chuck Long was. Which once again shows why stats are so often vastly misleading.

Career completion percentage and total yards passing won't be caught. Long was nearly 65 percent for his career, Stanley is just a hair under 58 percent. Stanley's TD/Int ratio is stellar at 52-16.

If Stanley keeps this pace, he'll break the record by 4. Not exactly shattering the record.

 

[scotthawk1964]

Chuck had the benefit of having a Ronnie Harmon out of the backfield who was a great back with great hands, (with the exception of his Rose Bowl performance. LOL ) Stanley had Wadley last year, but Ronnie was I think a better all around back.

 

[Herkmeister]

Nate has already shattered Chuck's wide open receiver overthrown record.

 

[David1979]

When was his TD record though of as untouchable?

 

[camickle]

I hope he does shatter it, but he does get a few extra games to do so as there is one more game played per season.

 

[NevadaHawk]

I expect a big year from Nate next season. I think he throws around 30-34 TDs for the 2019 season surpassing Long's all time record. 3,000 yards passing isn't out of the question either. Just hope Hock decides to come back!

 

[YouGotThatRight]

I hope he does shatter it, but he does get a few extra games to do so as there is one more game played per season.

Chuck was the starting qb in more games than Stanley will start, 4 years as a starter compared to 3.

 

[anon_2zMXH429BhxV1Npk]

I hope he does shatter it, but he does get a few extra games to do so as there is one more game played per season.

Chuck started/played in 46 games. Stanley currently has started in 26 games. Best case scenario for us Nate plays 41 games, so he could theoretically break the record about half a season less.

But to an earlier point, that's the game today, much more passing and offense in general.

 

[Harbinger273]

Career completion percentage and total yards passing won't be caught. Long was nearly 65 percent for his career, Stanley is just a hair under 58 percent. Stanley's TD/Int ratio is stellar at 52-16.

If Stanley keeps this pace, he'll break the record by 4. Not exactly shattering the record.

My thoughts exactly on the whole shattering bit. Of course maybe he is projecting 35+ tds by Stan next season. I would expect a year rather similar to this one next year. Say 3000 yds 26 more tds and maybe up to 60% completion rate.

 

[David1979]

I am hoping that next year Iowa will find a run game and won't have to have Stanley throw 26 TDs.

 

[jamesvanderwulf]

If Stanley gets 354 attempts next year then he will have the same number of attempts as Long ( 1111 ). Stanley threw 397 passes this year. He has 16 career INTs to Long's 46. He can have many more attempts in basically one less season....different game today.

 

[mtdew_fever]

Chuck Long was throwing it in a time when other schools were all run first. Different opposing team prep.

Chad Leistikow‏Verified account@ChadLeistikow 8h8 hours ago
With back-to-back seasons with 26 touchdown passes, Nate Stanley has 52 for his career and is within striking distance of Chuck Long's once-thought-untouchable school mark of 74 TD passes. In fact, he could shatter it.

1 reply1 retweet23 likes

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Why is 74 TD’s considered untouchable in this day and age of increased reliance on the forward pass?

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I am hoping that next year Iowa will find a run game and won't have to have Stanley throw 26 TDs.

Yeah, this. This is not a criticism, but Nate has thrown a lot of short (less than 10 yd) TD's. Long's teams would mostly run the ball in when they got inside the 10.

 

[doughuddl2]

Yeah, this. This is not a criticism, but Nate has thrown a lot of short (less than 10 yd) TD's. Long's teams would mostly run the ball in when they got inside the 10.

And you pulled this stat out of where?

 

[Hawk_4shur]

And you pulled this stat out of where?

I watched the games.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

And you pulled this stat out of where?

Here’s Nate’s TD distribution for all games

1-10 yards 26
11-25 13
26+ 13

Here’s what I found for Chuck for all games that I could find

1-10 24
11-25 20
26+ 27

 

[Hawk_4shur]

Here’s Nate’s TD distribution for all games

1-10 yards 26
11-25 13
26+ 13

Here’s what I found for Chuck for all games that I could find

1-10 24
11-25 20
26+ 27

Nice data mining!

 

[cecilB]

If Stanley stays healthy, he probably will break the record but, as of now, he's nowhere near the college QB Chuck Long was. Which once again shows why stats are so often vastly misleading.

As a freshman not comparable because he didn’t play, as a soph and Junior he’s very comparable, as a senior TBD, but a tall order. Time does a funny thing to the memory.

I do think expectations of the fan base are very different now.

 

[Kurt Warner]

Without fant and possibly hock I think he may have a hard time getting there.

 

[GhostAppendage]

If he’s expected to throw 30-34 tds next year he’ll have an 18/15 TD/INT ratio. Not good track record at expectations game.

 

[K OKeefe]

If Stanley stays healthy, he probably will break the record but, as of now, he's nowhere near the college QB Chuck Long was. Which once again shows why stats are so often vastly misleading.

Exactly, if you look at the stats for the Iowa Mississippi State game

Why is 74 TD’s considered untouchable in this day and age of increased reliance on the forward pass?

Because someone wrote it or tweeted it.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Exactly, if you look at the stats for the Iowa Mississippi State game

Because someone wrote it or tweeted it.

Ahhh authority bias strikes again.

 

[Harbinger273]

But look who scored the tds yesterday. All wide receivers. I think we get decent TE production next season at about half what we had this year. That would be about 650 yds and 8 tds. Add the running backs and wr production and it just seems like Stan can get back to the same td numbers as this year. I don't see a huge change coming in our ability to run the ball despite needing more in that dept.
I think Fran is a bit mixed up about what record is actually considered untouchable at Iowa. Clearly, Stan will be within range of the td record next year, however the passing yardage record is all but out of reach. Long threw for 9,671 yards and I don't see Stan going for over 4,300 next year.

 

[onionman1]

If Stanley stays healthy, he probably will break the record but, as of now, he's nowhere near the college QB Chuck Long was. Which once again shows why stats are so often vastly misleading.

Chuck long was much better. And I am as big of a Nate Stanley supporter as anyone. Long was da Man.

 

[Franisdaman]

I hope he does shatter it, but he does get a few extra games to do so as there is one more game played per season.

Guess what? Nate only gets one extra game to break the record, when you do the math.

Nate will only have 35 more projected pass attempts FOR HIS CAREER when compared to Chuck, which is basically one game. Against Mississippi State, Nate had 31 attempts.

The math: 748 attempts for Nate over last 2 years plus another 397 for 2019, which is the 2018 number.

46 games....1,110 attempts--Chuck Long
39 games....1.145 attempts--Nate Stanley (projected)


Sources:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/chuck-long-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nathan-stanley-2.html

 

[camickle]

Guess what? Nate only gets one extra game to break the record, when you do the math.

Nate will only have 35 more projected pass attempts FOR HIS CAREER when compared to Chuck, which is basically one game. Against Mississippi State, Nate had 31 attempts.

The math: 748 attempts for Nate over last 2 years plus another 397 for 2019, which is the 2018 number.

46 games....1,110 attempts--Chuck Long
39 games....1.145 attempts--Nate Stanley (projected)


Sources:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/chuck-long-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nathan-stanley-2.html

NICE WORK Franisdaman!

I had not realized that, it is very interesting. His percentage is not there, but he did have a lot of drops in those early years. IMO Nate was looking REALLY good early on this season and fell apart for a few games, then threw a nice ball again yesterday. Might be the thumb, mindset, a combo of or what ever, but if he can play consistently like he is capable of, he will be breaking the record and likely playing on Sundays soon after.

 

[camickle]

Chuck started/played in 46 games. Stanley currently has started in 26 games. Best case scenario for us Nate plays 41 games, so he could theoretically break the record about half a season less.

But to an earlier point, that's the game today, much more passing and offense in general.

True

 

[hawkedoff]

If a QB threw 47 int in the current environment this board would implode. Mass hystsria would ensue.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Think this stat says more about how poor Iowa's run game has been the past two years, especially in the red zone, than anything else.

 

[Franisdaman]

NICE WORK Franisdaman!

I had not realized that, it is very interesting. His percentage is not there, but he did have a lot of drops in those early years. IMO Nate was looking REALLY good early on this season and fell apart for a few games, then threw a nice ball again yesterday. Might be the thumb, mindset, a combo of or what ever, but if he can play consistently like he is capable of, he will be breaking the record and likely playing on Sundays soon after.

You know what's interesting?

Regarding completion percentage, that sometimes can be misleading.

The 49'ers did not care about CJ's completion percentage because they know in college there will be drops. When they looked at CJ's film they looked at whether the ball was put where it should be, caught or not. Based on that (and other factors), the 49'ers drafted CJ in the 3rd round.

 

[Herky T Hawk]

He won’t break Chuck’s 5 bowl games record though.

Interesting thing to think about, Nate is a true Junior just finishing up his 3rd year on campus. Under the new rules he would have been able to count the first year as a redshirt since he only played a little. Chuck was the same age coming out of the 1983 season when he had two full years of eligibility left.

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

Nate will crush Chuck in TDs to INTs when he's done. And probably TDs. However, Chuck will have accuracy, rating and Y/A on his side. Chuck was not only throwing longer passes on average, he was completing them at a higher percentage than Nate completes shorter passes. That says a lot. It probably explains a number of Chuck's INTs too. He took more chances on long throws. Chuck was a gunslinger. A very accurate gunslinger. He's easily the greatest QB Iowa has ever had.

 

[unoHawkeye]

There were over 30 QB’s who threw 25+ TD’s in FBS this year. Very breakable record... definitely not untouchable

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

There were over 30 QB’s who threw 25+ TD’s in FBS this year. Very breakable record... definitely not untouchable

A fine point that shows the greatness of Long. Chuck was arguably the first true passer in B1G history. First conference QB to 10K yards. Left Iowa with a ton of conference passing records. His numbers don't look so impressive now, but at the time they were awesome.

 

[LetsGoHawks83]

That's an interesting thought on Chuck Longs 5 bowl game record. With the new redshirt rule, it is actually possible to tie that record. Although in today's world a player will probably enter the draft after JR year, if they have been playing that much/well