What policies did Trump enact or fail to enact that would have directly (or indirectly) affected the violent crime rate? Would that have been felt right away or over time?
More times than not, trends do not occur in a vacuum. And the reality is you are probably observing a spurious relationship. One could easily assert violent crime progressed after football players started kneeling during the national anthem, claiming it encouraged lawlessness and violent behavior.
Here’s a rather ridiculous example of circular reasoning and spurious relationships but it was an actual case study. Researchers discovered that violence occurred most in areas where large quantities of ice cream were consumed. If employing circular reasoning, one could conclude eating ice cream causes people to be violent. However, that would be incorrect and a spurious relationship being observed, because in actuality heat tends to make people more aggressive and people tend to eat ice cream more when it’s hot. See what I mean?
So, if we wanted to go that route, maybe we should look at global warming patterns and see if there’s a connection to climate change and more aggressive behavior. How do you pinpoint one cause, spurious or not, as incontrovertible proof of a trend like human behavior? You can’t. It’s impossible. That’s my point.