The crazy thing is, tOSU is actually really good at scoring bonus pts as well. PSU's bonus really comes from 3 guys: Retherford, Nolf and Nickal. Joseph and Hall may get a couple in the early rounds but will be hard pressed to do so from the quarterfinals on. The 1st 3 weights aren't doing it unless they get a lucky draw for a match in wrestle backs. That leaves Nevills, who has zero history of bonus at NCAA's and an unproven Cassar or their least offensive wrestler in McCutcheon.
So, say 22.5 or so bonus(7.5 from each) should come from the "Big 3" and then say another 8 or so from the rest. Now 30.5(for comparison PSU scored 32 last year) IS a bunch, but tOSU can come close to matching that while actually putting more on the podium. Snyder will be good for 6 or 7. Moore will be good for 5. Martin should get about 4. BoJo at least 2. NaTo at least 2. After that, Pletcher, McKenna, Hayes, M. Jordan and Campbell will all most likely have high seeds to give them at least 1 very bonus likely match. So, low to mid 20's is VERY likely for tOSU.
With the above said, I have still been picking PSU, but by a very slim margin. Obviously, the main reason why isn't bonus. It is going to be the extra 4pts that 1st gets over 2nd and inevitably how many finish in the upper half of the placement scoring spectrum(16,12,10,9,7,6,4,3). I think PSU goes 1,1,1,1,3,4,6,R12,2-2 and 0-2. tOSU goes 1,1,2,3,3,5,6,6,7,R12.
So, that would put PSU at 16+16+16+16+10+9+6+3+2+0+28.5(advancement)+30.5 for 153. tOSU at 16+16+12+10+10+7+6+6+4+3+32.5(advancement)+25=147.5.
The 2 more 1st place finishes outscore tOSU's 2nd and 3rd place by 10.5 pts.
Finally, the above is also the reason why I say Iowa should hold off this year. Where PSU's highest points could falter(Hall and Nickal) tOSU would most likely gain if it happened(BoJo and Martin). I just don't see how both teams could end up under 140 and I see NO WAY that Iowa could get to 140.
