NCAA Tournament Projections (4/17)

[Alum-Ni]

Link: Baseball America NCAA Tournament Projection (4/17)

Last Four In
Louisiana Tech
Florida State
Michigan
Oklahoma

First Four Out
Florida Atlantic
Indiana State
Washington
Cal State-Fullerton

Next Four Out
Evansville
Central Florida
California
Texas-Arlington

Big Ten Teams In: 4
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska

Top 16 Seeds
1. UCLA
2. Stanford
3. Mississippi State
4. Georgia
5. Oregon State
6. Louisville
7. Vanderbilt
8. Arkansas
9. Texas A&M
10. Georgia Tech
11. Texas Tech
12. East Carolina
13. LSU
14. UC-Santa Barbara
15. North Carolina State
16. North Carolina

============================

Starkville Region
#1 Mississippi State
#4 Alabama State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Louisiana Tech

San Bernardino Region
#1 UC-Santa Barbara
#4 San Diego State

#2 Arizona State
#3 Illinois

Corvallis Region
#1 Oregon State
#4 Navy

#2 Oklahoma State
#3 Michigan

Louisville Region
#1 Louisville
#4 Ball State

#2 Indiana
#3 Oregon

 

[Alum-Ni]

Link: D1Baseball.com NCAA Tournament Projection (4/17)

Last Five In
California
Florida State
TCU
Illinois
Southern Mississippi

First Five Out
Michigan
Gonzaga
Florida Atlantic
Indiana State
Texas-Arlington

Big Ten Teams In: 3
Illinois
Indiana
Nebraska

Top 16 Seeds
1. UCLA
2. Oregon State
3. Vanderbilt
4. Louisville
5. Georgia
6. Stanford
7. Mississippi State
8. Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas
10. Texas A&M
11. North Carolina State
12. LSU
13. East Carolina
14. West Virginia
15. Texas Tech
16. UC-Santa Barbara

===========================

Greenville Region
#1 East Carolina
#4 Campbell

#2 North Carolina
#3 Nebraska

Morgantown Region
#1 West Virginia
#4 Liberty

#2 Mississippi
#3 Illinois

Nashville Region
#1 Vanderbilt
#4 Jacksonville State

#2 Indiana
#3 California

 

[SWIowahawks]

Link: D1Baseball.com NCAA Tournament Projection (4/17)

Last Five In
California
Florida State
TCU
Illinois
Southern Mississippi

First Five Out
Michigan
Gonzaga
Florida Atlantic
Indiana State
Texas-Arlington

Big Ten Teams In: 3
Illinois
Indiana
Nebraska

Top 16 Seeds
1. UCLA
2. Oregon State
3. Vanderbilt
4. Louisville
5. Georgia
6. Stanford
7. Mississippi State
8. Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas
10. Texas A&M
11. North Carolina State
12. LSU
13. East Carolina
14. West Virginia
15. Texas Tech
16. UC-Santa Barbara

===========================

Greenville Region
#1 East Carolina
#4 Campbell

#2 North Carolina
#3 Nebraska

Morgantown Region
#1 West Virginia
#4 Liberty

#2 Mississippi
#3 Illinois

Nashville Region
#1 Vanderbilt
#4 Jacksonville State

#2 Indiana
#3 California

For reference, Michigan is the next closest team to Iowa in the RPI. Michigan 68, Iowa 77. (Before today’s game)

 

[whatsup13579er]

For reference, Michigan is the next closest team to Iowa in the RPI. Michigan 68, Iowa 77. (Before today’s game)

Iowa is currently 1 spot ahead of Michigan. Series wins at Oklahoma State (who could be in the hosting discussion after this weekend), Illinois (sweep), and Nebby. Building a nice little resume if they stay hot and get their RPI down in the 50s.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Iowa is currently 1 spot ahead of Michigan. Series wins at Oklahoma State (who could be in the hosting discussion after this weekend), Illinois (sweep), and Nebby. Building a nice little resume if they stay hot and get their RPI down in the 50s.

Iowa' resume is far superior to Michigan. Michigan is 1-4 vs Quad 1 RPI teams, Iowa is 8-7. Wolverines are 19-4 against Quad 4 teams.

If Iowa can get the sweep today they would need to just keep winning (duh). Would be nice to head to the BTT without needing to win it to get in.

 

[StormHawk42]

Does baseball do the quad thing like basketball?

On a related note, the fact that a team can jump 20 rpi spots in two games shows that it’s flawed

 

[whatsup13579er]

Does baseball do the quad thing like baseball?

On a related note, the fact that a team can jump 20 rpi spots in two games shows that it’s flawed

Yes. Iowa currently with 8 Q1 wins.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-sheet?team=Iowa

 

[AuroraHawk]

Iowa is currently 1 spot ahead of Michigan. Series wins at Oklahoma State (who could be in the hosting discussion after this weekend), Illinois (sweep), and Nebby. Building a nice little resume if they stay hot and get their RPI down in the 50s.

The balance of the schedule is not favorable for lowering the RPI. Favorable for wins? Yes. RPI? Not so much.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

RPI is what it is for baseball. They value RPI more so than any eye test or anything. Is it laziness? Maybe, but they strictly go with RPI when determining bids.

 

[SWIowahawks]

The balance of the schedule is not favorable for lowering the RPI. Favorable for wins? Yes. RPI? Not so much.

UC-Irvine is going to be a big series. Bigger than that will be not losing midweek games to crap teams. Bradley, Illinois State, and Illinois need to keep winning. Nebraska can lose every game ever but them winning helps too.

 

[AuroraHawk]

I just looked at Warren Nolan’s projected RPI for Iowa. And, frankly, I have to change my thoughts. With the full confession that I don’t profess to know squat about how RPI works, Nolan projects Iowa going 10-7 for rest of the season - ending at 34-19 - and finishing with a RPI of 53. That includes a loss to NW in Chicago and losing two of three to the Anteaters.

It also includes a projected win today against Nebraska.

 

[whatsup13579er]

I just looked at Warren Nolan’s projected RPI for Iowa. And, frankly, I have to change my thoughts. With the full confession that I don’t profess to know squat about how RPI works, Nolan projects Iowa going 10-7 for rest of the season - ending at 34-19 - and finishing with a RPI of 53. That includes a loss to NW in Chicago and losing two of three to the Anteaters.

It also includes a projected win today against Nebraska.

Yes. There are enough good wins left on the schedule to keep boosting the RPI. Unfortunately there are lots of RPI killers on the schedule too. Need to win the right games down the stretch.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I'd be ok with 24/7 rain for our remaining midweeks

 

[whatsup13579er]

I'd be ok with 24/7 rain for our remaining midweeks

A win at NW would be worthwhile

 

[AuroraHawk]

Yes. There are enough good wins left on the schedule to keep boosting the RPI. Unfortunately there are lots of RPI killers on the schedule too. Need to win the right games down the stretch.

Well ... after yesterday’s loss, Warren Nolan’s RPI predictor now has Iowa finishing at 82 instead of 53.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Iowa

And that includes taking 2 of 3 against the Anteaters.

 

[whatsup13579er]

Well ... after yesterday’s loss, Warren Nolan’s RPI predictor now has Iowa finishing at 82 instead of 53.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Iowa

And that includes taking 2 of 3 against the Anteaters.

If Iowa loses to Milwaukee and at Western Illinois, those would be 2 of the RPI killers I was talking about. Those 2 loses would likely be worth 20+ spots in the RPI. The only mid-week game they can afford to lose would be at NW.

Turn those two losses into wins, add a loss at NW, and turn at tOSU and/or at Maryland series into a W and I think the RPI would be right there.

 

[SWIowahawks]

If Iowa loses to Milwaukee and at Western Illinois, those would be 2 of the RPI killers I was talking about. Those 2 loses would likely be worth 20+ spots in the RPI. The only mid-week game they can afford to lose would be at NW.

Turn those two losses into wins, add a loss at NW, and turn at tOSU and/or at Maryland series into a W and I think the RPI would be right there.

Heck, simply playing Western Illinois twice hurts our RPI.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Heck, simply playing Western Illinois twice hurts our RPI.

Yes it does...we’d be better off playing Coe

 

[AuroraHawk]

If Iowa loses to Milwaukee and at Western Illinois, those would be 2 of the RPI killers I was talking about. Those 2 loses would likely be worth 20+ spots in the RPI. The only mid-week game they can afford to lose would be at NW.

Turn those two losses into wins, add a loss at NW, and turn at tOSU and/or at Maryland series into a W and I think the RPI would be right there.

I hadn't previously looked at this feature on Warren Nolan's site. Shows how an Iowa win/Iowa loss impacts its RPI along with all other games that are being played that will impact its RPI. Interesting stuff: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-impact?team=Iowa

 

[AuroraHawk]

I hadn't previously looked at this feature on Warren Nolan's site. Shows how an Iowa win/Iowa loss impacts its RPI along with all other games that are being played that will impact its RPI. Interesting stuff: http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-impact?team=Iowa

No question that results of Iowa's games have biggest impact on RPI but, if the cards fall right in the other games, Iowa has a chance to catch a few teams tonight. Iowa currently sits 38 points away from the #70 slot and is 102 points away from the #60 slot.

Winning tonight's game looks to be incredibly important. A loss results in (-46) RPI points. A win is worth 32 RPI points. If Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Cal Northridge can also win tonight, Iowa would gain about 60"ish" points.

 

[whatsup13579er]

No question that results of Iowa's games have biggest impact on RPI but, if the cards fall right in the other games, Iowa has a chance to catch a few teams tonight. Iowa currently sits 38 points away from the #70 slot and is 102 points away from the #60 slot.

Winning tonight's game looks to be incredibly important. A loss results in (-46) RPI points. A win is worth 32 RPI points. If Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Cal Northridge can also win tonight, Iowa would gain about 60"ish" points.

It is also important to remember the RPI doesn't happen in a vacuum. Several games will impact Iowa's rank directly (Iowa's result and former opponents results) as well as other teams around them going up or down the ladder.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Win tonight and on the weekends, hope for rain the rest of the midweeks besides NW. That is my game plan.

 

[AuroraHawk]

It is also important to remember the RPI doesn't happen in a vacuum. Several games will impact Iowa's rank directly (Iowa's result and former opponents results) as well as other teams around them going up or down the ladder.

Yep . . . Warren Nolan refers to those as "Indirect (SOS) Impact Games." It really is a pretty fascinating (is "fun" the right word?) to read how each of those games impact Iowa's RPI points.