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NCAA Tournament Projections (5/15)

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Aug 29, 2004
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Link: Baseball America NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

Last Four In
Connecticut
Tennessee
Clemson
Virginia

First Four Out
San Diego State
Wake Forest
Arizona
Oklahoma

Next Four Out
Washington
Iowa
Louisiana Tech
Gonzaga

Big Ten Teams In: 4
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska

Top 16 National Seeds (Region Hosts)
1. Vanderbilt
2. UCLA
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Georgia
6. East Carolina
7. Louisville
8. Texas Tech
9. Stanford
10. Georgia Tech
11. Oklahoma State
12. Miami (FL)
13. Oregon State
14. UC-Santa Barbara
15. LSU
16. North Carolina

Athens Regional
#1 Georgia
#4 North Carolina A&T

#2 Michigan
#3 Clemson

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Stillwater Regional
#1 Oklahoma State
#4 Harvard

#2 Dallas Baptist
#3 Nebraska

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Louisville Regional
#1 Louisville
#4 Ball State

#2 Indiana
#3 Tennessee

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Atlanta Regional
#1 Georgia Tech
#4 Elon

#2 Illinois
#3 Southern Mississippi
 
Link: Perfect Game NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

Perfect Game does not put together a bracket, but just a projection of what teams they think will make the field:

(current RPI rank in parentheses after the team)

Automatic Bids (31 available)
Big Ten:
Michigan (42)

At-Large Bids (33 available)
Teams 11-20:
Illinois (21), Indiana (26)
Teams 21-29: Nebraska (38)

Last Four In

Florida State (57)
Duke (45)
Gonzaga (74)
Iowa (80)

Teams in the Discussion
Oklahoma (43)
Louisiana Tech (51)
Liberty (53)
Clemson (39)
Florida (33)
Virginia (48)
Wake Forest (59)
Central Florida (49)
San Diego State (56)

Top 16 Seeds (Host Sites)
1. UCLA
2. Vanderbilt
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. East Carolina
6. Georgia
7. Texas Tech
8. Stanford
9. Georgia Tech
10. Louisville
11. Oklahoma State
12. Miami (FL)
13. Texas A&M
14. Oregon State
15. Illinois
16. LSU

Observations
1. The host situation is wide open right now. The final five spots are extremely fluid and any team that gets on a roll here at the end could end up in play.

2. The final at-large bids were similarly messy. The final three spots came down to 12 teams and it was difficult to find compelling cases. A team that gets hot could come out of nowhere to snag a bid.

3. This is a year where, in my opinion, the RPI and the eye-test are contradictory in several important instances. For example, Stanford is a Top 8 seed by my eye test but their RPI is light at 16. I also believe UC-Irvine to be a very good team but their RPI of 50 is on the bubble. This is an area where the committee might lean on their Regional Advisory Committees to trump RPI.

4. This projection includes the two single-highest RPIs we have ever put in the field: Gonzaga at 74 and Iowa at 80. Gonzaga has very little chance to build RPI in Spokane, Washington so we put that aside and looked deeper. The Zags are 16-8 in a very good West Coast Conference and they won three straight road games against the likes of Southern Mississippi and Texas A&M earlier this season. Iowa is hurt by their nine "Quad 4" (teams 151-299) losses but they have four series wins that made a loud statement: at Oklahoma State, Illinois, Nebraska and UC-Irvine.

5. The race for the Top 8 seeds is extremely competitive right now. East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Texas Tech and Stanford are all battling for those final three spots. Texas Tech and Stanford both pass the eye test at a high level and both clubs could still win their respective leagues. As it stands today, the committee will have their work cut out for them here.

6. Once conference tournaments open up, let the bid stealing begin. Here are several conferences to keep an eye on with teams listed who could steal one of those at-large bids:

Big East: if Creighton does not win the conference tournament
C-USA: If Florida Atlantic or Southern Miss do not win the conference tournament
Sun Belt: if Texas State does not win the conference tournament
West Coast Conference: if BYU does not win the conference tournament
Mountain West: if Fresno State does not win the conference tournament
 
I’m not quite as optimistic but you never know. Sweep Maryland I guess and see what happens.
 
Holy bleep?! PG still has Iowa in. That’s amazing.
giphy.gif
 
Goes to show that if, and a big IF, Iowa gets semi-hot down the stretch, meaning taking the Maryland series or even sweeping, combined with 2-3 wins in the Big Ten Tourney, we'll definitely give the selection committee something to think about. Those Quad 1 wins and series wins against Top 25/Top 50 teams are really opening the committee's eyes.
 
According to RPI, Iowa is chasing 122 points to get to #60. I'm anticipating that a single win against Maryland will be worth about 30 points (give or take 3-4 points). A loss would be about the same number of lost points. For all practical purposes, that puts about 85-115 points up for grabs this weekend if Iowa can get a sweep. Of course, other teams have the chance to gain points as well and a sweep hardly guarantees that Iowa can get to 60 points let alone finish the regular season with a "5" as the first digit of its RPI.

My thoughts?
Iowa loses the series to Maryland, an at-large bid only happens if Iowa wins the B1G tournament.
Iowa sweeps Maryland, the Hawks will still need a solid showing in the B1G tournament. An 0-2 showing and the Hawks stay at home. Beat the lower seeded teams and only lose to NCAA qualifying teams and Iowa should still be discussed on selection day. Knock off Indiana, Michigan or Illinois during the tournament and Iowa receives a bid.
Iowa wins the Maryland series 2-1, Hawks will need at least one "signature" win in the B1G tournament (making the final four teams) to have a chance for the at-large bid. I'm thinking beating Indiana, Michigan or Illinois and also knocking off a competitive Nebraska or Minnesota as well.
 
According to RPI, Iowa is chasing 122 points to get to #60. I'm anticipating that a single win against Maryland will be worth about 30 points (give or take 3-4 points). A loss would be about the same number of lost points. For all practical purposes, that puts about 85-115 points up for grabs this weekend if Iowa can get a sweep. Of course, other teams have the chance to gain points as well and a sweep hardly guarantees that Iowa can get to 60 points let alone finish the regular season with a "5" as the first digit of its RPI.

My thoughts?
Iowa loses the series to Maryland, an at-large bid only happens if Iowa wins the B1G tournament.
Iowa sweeps Maryland, the Hawks will still need a solid showing in the B1G tournament. An 0-2 showing and the Hawks stay at home. Beat the lower seeded teams and only lose to NCAA qualifying teams and Iowa should still be discussed on selection day. Knock off Indiana, Michigan or Illinois during the tournament and Iowa receives a bid.
Iowa wins the Maryland series 2-1, Hawks will need at least one "signature" win in the B1G tournament (making the final four teams) to have a chance for the at-large bid. I'm thinking beating Indiana, Michigan or Illinois and also knocking off a competitive Nebraska or Minnesota as well.
I wonder how many teams outside the RPI Top 25 have won a series against FOUR teams currently projected "in the field", Iowa has series wins against UC Irivne, Okie State, Illinois & Nebraska.
 
Link: D1Baseball.com NCAA Tournament Projection (5/15)

Last Five In
Tennessee
Florida State
UC-Irvine
Virginia
Clemson

First Five Out
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
Washington
Louisiana Tech
Central Florida

Big Ten Teams In: 4
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Nebraska

Top 16 Seeds (Regional Hosts)
1. UCLA
2. Vanderbilt
3. Arkansas
4. Mississippi State
5. Louisville
6. Georgia Tech
7. Georgia
8. Texas Tech
9. East Carolina
10. Stanford
11. Oklahoma State
12. Oregon State
13. Miami (FL)
14. LSU
15. North Carolina
16. UC-Santa Barbara

Los Angeles Regional
#1 UCLA
#4 Nebraska-Omaha

#2 Michigan
#3 UC-Irvine

-------------------------------------

Nashville Regional
#1 Vanderbilt
#4 North Carolina A&T

#2 Indiana
#3 Liberty

-------------------------------------

Louisville Regional
#1 Louisville
#4 Central Michigan

#2 Indiana State
#3 Nebraska

-------------------------------------

Athens Regional
#1 Georgia
#4 Virginia Commonwealth

#2 Illinois
#3 Clemson
 
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