Nebraska hype

BCfanatic2020

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Jan 5, 2020
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Posted this to the Purdue board (sorry most hated). Thought you guys might find it interesting.

For those tired of hearing about Nebraska. I’m one of you. There’s not a team, even IU, where id root for Nebraska against that team. Sorry..

One reason we shouldn’t fear Nebraska that’s noted in many previews is that thought that mark whipple, their new OC, really just benefitted from having Kenny Pickett in a very down ACC.

but the real reason is the huge pickup that is Casey Thompson! I mean come on, he threw for 2000 yards (uh ok) at Texas.

much like diving into the 2004 football season at Purdue, let’s look at the passing yards allowed ranking of each of his opponents, then yards and td/int by Thompson in that game.

44 Kansas state 17-23 170 yds 1 TD 1 INT
Texas won 22-17

40 West Virginia 4-14 29 yards 0 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 31-23

81 Kansas 30-43 358 yards 6 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 57-56

11 Iowa state 2-6 2 yards 0 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 30-7

65 Baylor 23-38 280 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 31-24

36 Oklahoma state 15-27 179 yards 1 TD 2 INT
Texas lost 32-24

109 Oklahoma 20-34 388 5 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 55-48

86 TCU 12-22 142 yards 1 TD 1 INT
Texas won 32-27

119 Texas Tech 18-23 303 yards 5 TD 1 INT
Texas won 70-35

123 Rice 15-18 164 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Texas won 58-0

41 Arkansas 5-8 57 yards 0 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 40-21

14 Louisiana 4-5 41 yards 1 TD 0 INT
Texas won 38-18

So he threw for 1049 yards 16 TD 2 INT against three teams rated 81st or below in pass defense, then in his 9 other games 1064 yards with 8 TD and 7 INT. What a pickup lol. I can see what all the hype is about now. By the way everyone outside of Nebraska in the Big Ten West was ranked in the top 46 in pass defense with an average ranking of 29th!! He even had a couple games where he sucked against shit pass defenses.

I can’t remember a more glaring indicator in all my time following college football that a team was going to perform so differently from expectations.
 

jonesy5960

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Sep 6, 2012
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Posted this to the Purdue board (sorry most hated). Thought you guys might find it interesting.

For those tired of hearing about Nebraska. I’m one of you. There’s not a team, even IU, where id root for Nebraska against that team. Sorry..

One reason we shouldn’t fear Nebraska that’s noted in many previews is that thought that mark whipple, their new OC, really just benefitted from having Kenny Pickett in a very down ACC.

but the real reason is the huge pickup that is Casey Thompson! I mean come on, he threw for 2000 yards (uh ok) at Texas.

much like diving into the 2004 football season at Purdue, let’s look at the passing yards allowed ranking of each of his opponents, then yards and td/int by Thompson in that game.

44 Kansas state 17-23 170 yds 1 TD 1 INT
Texas won 22-17

40 West Virginia 4-14 29 yards 0 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 31-23

81 Kansas 30-43 358 yards 6 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 57-56

11 Iowa state 2-6 2 yards 0 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 30-7

65 Baylor 23-38 280 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 31-24

36 Oklahoma state 15-27 179 yards 1 TD 2 INT
Texas lost 32-24

109 Oklahoma 20-34 388 5 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 55-48

86 TCU 12-22 142 yards 1 TD 1 INT
Texas won 32-27

119 Texas Tech 18-23 303 yards 5 TD 1 INT
Texas won 70-35

123 Rice 15-18 164 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Texas won 58-0

41 Arkansas 5-8 57 yards 0 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 40-21

14 Louisiana 4-5 41 yards 1 TD 0 INT
Texas won 38-18

So he threw for 1049 yards 16 TD 2 INT against three teams rated 81st or below in pass defense, then in his 9 other games 1064 yards with 8 TD and 7 INT. What a pickup lol. I can see what all the hype is about now. By the way everyone outside of Nebraska in the Big Ten West was ranked in the top 46 in pass defense with an average ranking of 29th!! He even had a couple games where he sucked against shit pass defenses.

I can’t remember a more glaring indicator in all my time following college football that a team was going to perform so differently from expectations.
Normally I'd agree with you. Nebraska is a doormat program but I think most people have finally caught on to that and the hype train has been noticeably more quiet this year. Kind of refreshing actually.
 

BCfanatic2020

Scout Team
Jan 5, 2020
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Normally I'd agree with you. Nebraska is a doormat program but I think most people have finally caught on to that and the hype train has been noticeably more quiet this year. Kind of refreshing actually.
Uh.. many predictions have them winning the west. Our football guy, tom dienhart, aka Roy Munson has them as our most likely upset threat
 

BigHawk

HR MVP
Oct 1, 2001
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Once one gets a handle on their disdain for nubby, they will be better than last year.

I think they brought in enough tran$Fer talent to make a bug step forward.

I think the coaching hires are a net positive as well. The telling sign is how much control frost gives up to the new guys. He has had success elsewhere, but has been nothing but a complete failure in the Big 10.

They could have won several games last year, but coaching got in the way...MSU, Michigan, the Hawks, Minnesota, even OU ..were games they probably should have won.

Their recruiting is improving.

So we shall see. This is a huge year for them. The schedule isn't daunting, but if the go below. 500 it's hard seeing them keep frost.
 

BCfanatic2020

Scout Team
Jan 5, 2020
140
264
63
Once one gets a handle on their disdain for nubby, they will be better than last year.

I think they brought in enough tran$Fer talent to make a bug step forward.

I think the coaching hires are a net positive as well. The telling sign is how much control frost gives up to the new guys. He has had success elsewhere, but has been nothing but a complete failure in the Big 10.

They could have won several games last year, but coaching got in the way...MSU, Michigan, the Hawks, Minnesota, even OU ..were games they probably should have won.

Their recruiting is improving.

So we shall see. This is a huge year for them. The schedule isn't daunting, but if the go below. 500 it's hard seeing them keep frost.
The D and their lines on both sides lost a ton from last year
 

jonesy5960

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Sep 6, 2012
5,105
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Uh.. many predictions have them winning the west. Our football guy, tom dienhart, aka Roy Munson has them as our most likely upset threat
Many? I haven't seen any that show them winning anything. Athlon has them in 5th place. CBS has them at 7 or fewer wins. Espn has them behind Wisconsin and tied with Iowa. Buckeyeswire has them at 5-4. CFN has them at 7-5.

I can't find anything resembling the overly optimistic predictions that we're used to seeing.
 

Hawk_4shur

HR Legend
Jan 2, 2009
15,367
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The teams of the last few years at Neb had plenty of talent - they were just not well coached. Mistakes killed them over and over, and they couldn't seal the deal on the close games.

Had Iowa beat last year till the blocked punt.

If they can stop beating themselves, they just might win a bunch of games.
 

iahawkeyes17

HR Heisman
Apr 22, 2014
7,507
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The teams of the last few years at Neb had plenty of talent - they were just not well coached. Mistakes killed them over and over, and they couldn't seal the deal on the close games.

Had Iowa beat last year till the blocked punt.

If they can stop beating themselves, they just might win a bunch of games.
As long as Scott Frost is their coach they'll never live up to expectations unless it's to go .500 and make a bowl game. Which would be quite the feat for a coach who has had 5 out of 6 seasons as a HC finishing with a losing record. But we know with their fanbase they think they they'll win 10 games every year and compete for a conference title. Even though they haven't lost fewer than 4 games in something like 18 years.

Lot of these close losses it comes down to coaching and losing mentality they've had under Frosty. How many times last year did you hear announcers or post game talk once something happened late like the blocked punt vs Iowa and how the players were just waiting for the shoe to drop and the inevitable outcome of the loss to happen.
 

David1979

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 17, 2013
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I think people are assuming that brining all those transfers will get them on the right track. That is a big if though. It worked last year for Michigan State but other teams that brought in a ton of transfers it didn't work out. Depends on the players and the program. I don't see the QB as an upgrade. I think their OL is suspect as well. Defense might be ok.
 

beatdahuskers

HR Heisman
Nov 15, 2006
5,263
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I think people are assuming that brining all those transfers will get them on the right track. That is a big if though. It worked last year for Michigan State but other teams that brought in a ton of transfers it didn't work out. Depends on the players and the program. I don't see the QB as an upgrade. I think their OL is suspect as well. Defense might be ok.
The AD giving Mr. Frosty one year kind of fuqed recruiting. The only reasonable possibility for success was the transfer portal. Why would a high school player commit to UN knowing there is a strong possibility the coach is gone. This year's recruiting class is very unlikely to see senior day.
 

Quintana

HR MVP
Oct 18, 2011
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Over the Hills and Far Away
The AD giving Mr. Frosty one year kind of fuqed recruiting. The only reasonable possibility for success was the transfer portal. Why would a high school player commit to UN knowing there is a strong possibility the coach is gone. This year's recruiting class is very unlikely to see senior day.
telling kids that frost would be gone after their frosh year might be the best way to get them to come to nubby.
 

mazda1

HR All-American
Sep 22, 2015
2,674
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They have spent a bunch of NIL money and brought some guys in that had some solid coaching. Maybe they bring some culture with them ‘cause closet man can’t create it.
They should win a couple of close games as they’ve already used up about as many ways to lose as there are.
 

DodgerHawki

HR Heisman
Nov 19, 2002
9,678
11,539
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As long as Scott Frost is their coach they'll never live up to expectations unless it's to go .500 and make a bowl game. Which would be quite the feat for a coach who has had 5 out of 6 seasons as a HC finishing with a losing record. But we know with their fanbase they think they they'll win 10 games every year and compete for a conference title. Even though they haven't lost fewer than 4 games in something like 18 years.

Lot of these close losses it comes down to coaching and losing mentality they've had under Frosty. How many times last year did you hear announcers or post game talk once something happened late like the blocked punt vs Iowa and how the players were just waiting for the shoe to drop and the inevitable outcome of the loss to happen.
Nebraska is interesting. Bill Connelly's Big 10 West preview is pretty fair assessment of all the teams on ESPN (requires + subscription to read the whole thing).

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...view-wisconsin-purdue-iowa-minnesota-all-shot

This portion on Nebraska seems spot on:

"However ... they've fallen short of SP+ expectations for four straight years. My Second-Order Wins measure, which takes the predictive stats produced in a given game, tosses them into the air and says "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time," suggests Nebraska should have won about 23 games thus far under Frost. They've won 15. At some point, it's not randomness -- it's you."

Connelly is saying that the advanced stats would say Huskers should win more, but when it happens year after year really have to look at the coaching. The Iowa win over Nebraska last year was about as "Nebraska" as could be under Frost. Horrific special teams and really bad on turnovers.

Connelly has 5 West teams predicted to win between 4.8 and 5.8 conference games, so West could easily come down to the last weekend again.
 

ichawk24

HR Heisman
Nov 21, 2005
9,155
9,258
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Frost's entire football program is about piling up empty yards between the 20s. Adrian Martinez threw for 8400 and ran for 2300 in four years and they accomplished zero.

Those empty yards are what make them "look good" to SP+. But in reality those yards do nothing.
 

jonesy5960

HR Heisman
Gold Member
Sep 6, 2012
5,105
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Frost's entire football program is about piling up empty yards between the 20s. Adrian Martinez threw for 8400 and ran for 2300 in four years and they accomplished zero.

Those empty yards are what make them "look good" to SP+. But in reality those yards do nothing.
They're good for stroking the chosen one's ego.
 
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whoboppin

All-Conference
Apr 8, 2015
474
362
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Weird. Not sure where all this hype is coming from. Most Nebraska fans are just happy we have a different QB. Martinez is the biggest enigma in Nebraska football history.

As for Casey Thompson, he wasn't the starter at the beginning of the year. He overtook the job during the Rice game (game 3) and tore his thumb in the OU game (game 6). He was then hit or miss all year with his injury. Most Texas fans liked Casey Thompson.

I'm excited because he is a pass first QB, so he should be more accurate in the redzone which is what Martinez always struggled with. He wont make the explosive plays Martinez made, but he should be able to make the easy throws which has plagued Nebraska under Martinez.
 

pistachio1999

HR MVP
Nov 29, 2021
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Weird. Not sure where all this hype is coming from. Most Nebraska fans are just happy we have a different QB. Martinez is the biggest enigma in Nebraska football history.

As for Casey Thompson, he wasn't the starter at the beginning of the year. He overtook the job during the Rice game (game 3) and tore his thumb in the OU game (game 6). He was then hit or miss all year with his injury. Most Texas fans liked Casey Thompson.

I'm excited because he is a pass first QB, so he should be more accurate in the redzone which is what Martinez always struggled with. He wont make the explosive plays Martinez made, but he should be able to make the easy throws which has plagued Nebraska under Martinez.
Just as long as he can hit those Iowa DBs like recent Nebraska QBs did we will be good.
 

Hawkeye Marching Band

HR All-State
Mar 19, 2018
953
1,160
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Weird. Not sure where all this hype is coming from. Most Nebraska fans are just happy we have a different QB. Martinez is the biggest enigma in Nebraska football history.

As for Casey Thompson, he wasn't the starter at the beginning of the year. He overtook the job during the Rice game (game 3) and tore his thumb in the OU game (game 6). He was then hit or miss all year with his injury. Most Texas fans liked Casey Thompson.

I'm excited because he is a pass first QB, so he should be more accurate in the redzone which is what Martinez always struggled with. He wont make the explosive plays Martinez made, but he should be able to make the easy throws which has plagued Nebraska under Martinez.
You should be even happier about getting a dedicated special teams coach. Combine better red zone efficiency with competent special teams - neither have to be great, just improved - and the Huskers likely make a bowl game.
 

scotthawk1964

HR All-American
Sep 12, 2014
4,057
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113
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DeLand, Fl
Debbie should at the minimum get to a bowl game this year, for no other reason then they have an easier schedule this season, plus AM is gone and not here to make the game ending mistake. However, the one factor that has not changed is Frost, he is still in charge and still ready to toss players under the bus when the bus veers off the course.
 
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whoboppin

All-Conference
Apr 8, 2015
474
362
63
You should be even happier about getting a dedicated special teams coach. Combine better red zone efficiency with competent special teams - neither have to be great, just improved - and the Huskers likely make a bowl game.
Yeah, theres about 10 different small things that Nebraska could fix and they would win more games even if they only fixed that. Kicker, punter, returning punts, etc.

To me though the biggest issue has been red zone efficiency, Nebraska couldn't convert points in the red zone. IMO it is mainly due to Martinez's short comings as a passer, he just isn't able to complete easy passes consistently. Nebraska was 20th in total offense last year, 2nd in the Big Ten, but 70th in scoring offense. That makes no sense.
 

pistachio1999

HR MVP
Nov 29, 2021
2,260
2,743
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Yeah, theres about 10 different small things that Nebraska could fix and they would win more games even if they only fixed that. Kicker, punter, returning punts, etc.

To me though the biggest issue has been red zone efficiency, Nebraska couldn't convert points in the red zone. IMO it is mainly due to Martinez's short comings as a passer, he just isn't able to complete easy passes consistently. Nebraska was 20th in total offense last year, 2nd in the Big Ten, but 70th in scoring offense. That makes no sense.
Shoulda went to the wishbone inside the 20.
 

sober_teacher

HR Legend
Mar 26, 2007
13,388
16,541
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Once one gets a handle on their disdain for nubby, they will be better than last year.

I think they brought in enough tran$Fer talent to make a bug step forward.

I think the coaching hires are a net positive as well. The telling sign is how much control frost gives up to the new guys. He has had success elsewhere, but has been nothing but a complete failure in the Big 10.

They could have won several games last year, but coaching got in the way...MSU, Michigan, the Hawks, Minnesota, even OU ..were games they probably should have won.

Their recruiting is improving.

So we shall see. This is a huge year for them. The schedule isn't daunting, but if the go below. 500 it's hard seeing them keep frost.

On field talent hasn’t been the problem. If you look at how they lost games the last few years, they keep making critical mistakes at the worst times. That’s coaching and that’s culture.

I know Frost overhauled the coaching staff, but they’re in prove it mode as long as he’s the coach.
 
Feb 25, 2008
52,363
25,345
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Posted this to the Purdue board (sorry most hated). Thought you guys might find it interesting.

For those tired of hearing about Nebraska. I’m one of you. There’s not a team, even IU, where id root for Nebraska against that team. Sorry..

One reason we shouldn’t fear Nebraska that’s noted in many previews is that thought that mark whipple, their new OC, really just benefitted from having Kenny Pickett in a very down ACC.

but the real reason is the huge pickup that is Casey Thompson! I mean come on, he threw for 2000 yards (uh ok) at Texas.

much like diving into the 2004 football season at Purdue, let’s look at the passing yards allowed ranking of each of his opponents, then yards and td/int by Thompson in that game.

44 Kansas state 17-23 170 yds 1 TD 1 INT
Texas won 22-17

40 West Virginia 4-14 29 yards 0 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 31-23

81 Kansas 30-43 358 yards 6 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 57-56

11 Iowa state 2-6 2 yards 0 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 30-7

65 Baylor 23-38 280 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Texas lost 31-24

36 Oklahoma state 15-27 179 yards 1 TD 2 INT
Texas lost 32-24

109 Oklahoma 20-34 388 5 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 55-48

86 TCU 12-22 142 yards 1 TD 1 INT
Texas won 32-27

119 Texas Tech 18-23 303 yards 5 TD 1 INT
Texas won 70-35

123 Rice 15-18 164 yards 2 TD 1 INT
Texas won 58-0

41 Arkansas 5-8 57 yards 0 TD 0 INT
Texas lost 40-21

14 Louisiana 4-5 41 yards 1 TD 0 INT
Texas won 38-18

So he threw for 1049 yards 16 TD 2 INT against three teams rated 81st or below in pass defense, then in his 9 other games 1064 yards with 8 TD and 7 INT. What a pickup lol. I can see what all the hype is about now. By the way everyone outside of Nebraska in the Big Ten West was ranked in the top 46 in pass defense with an average ranking of 29th!! He even had a couple games where he sucked against shit pass defenses.

I can’t remember a more glaring indicator in all my time following college football that a team was going to perform so differently from expectations.
The rivalry we didn't know we needed.......Purdue vs Nebraska lol.
 

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