ADVERTISEMENT

New COVID survival rates. Good news.


Actual rates, from CDCs demographics site:

Covid19
0-4 yrs: 0.04% 1 in 2600
5-17 yrs: 0.02% 1 in 5700
18-29 yrs: 0.07% 1 in 1500
30-39 yrs: 0.23% 1 in 430
40-49 yrs: 0.61% 1 in 164
50-64 yrs: 2.2% 1 in 46
65-74 yrs: 8.1% 1 in 12
75-84 yrs: 17.8% 1 in 6
85+ yrs: 28.5% 1 in 3.5
Now, let's go to the scorecards, Jim and compare this to typical flu mortality:

EDIT: For clarity, CDC has two different tables on flu info, and they conflict, so here are the numbers for each:

2017-18 FLU (Table 1 Data)

0-4 yrs: 0.0031% 1 in 32,000
5-17 yrs: 0.007% 1 in 14,228
18-29 yrs: 0.019% 1 in 5,150
30-39 yrs: 0.019% 1 in 5,150
40-49 yrs: 0.019% 1 in 5,150
50-64 yrs: 0.05% 1 in 1961
65+: 0.86% 1 in 117

2017-18 FLU (Table 2 Data)
0-4 yrs: 0.0006% 1 in 166,667
5-17 yrs: 0.001% 1 in 100,000
18-29 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
30-39 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
40-49 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
50-64 yrs: 0.011% 1 in 9434
65+: 0.1% 1 in 1000
Relative Risk Ratio: Covid Vs 2017-18 Flu (Table 1 Data):

0-4 yrs: 12.3x
5-17 yrs: 2.5x
18-29 yrs: 3.4x
30-39 yrs: 12x
40-49 yrs: 31.5x
50-64 yrs: 43x
65+: 9.5x-33.3x


Per data in Table 1, Risk Ratios for Covid vs Flu are 2.5-3.5x in ONLY two demographic groups. They are 10x or higher in every other group, including infants and toddlers.
This does NOT include MIS-C deaths for infants and children
, which do not appear to be coded as Covid. Ergo, numbers in those groups will be higher

Relative Risk Ratio: Covid Vs 2017-18 Flu (Table 2 Data):

0-4 yrs: 64x
5-17 yrs: 17.5x
18-29 yrs: 32x
30-39 yrs: 116x
40-49 yrs: 306x
50-64 yrs: 207x
65+:
80-285x

Per data in Table 2, Risk Ratios are >20x across ALL demographic groups.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm


#GoReviewActualDataNotSomeRandomDude'sTweet
 
Last edited:
Is there a link for this?

Nope.

His #s for the 50-69 group cannot reconcile with the actual data on CDCs Demographics page.

50-64 is 2.2% mortality
65-74 is 8.1% mortality

All of those newly computed numbers are very similar to what I posted a month ago.

So, the "99.5% survival" for that group is total BS
Actual is more like 95%, which means he probably just typo'd it.
 
Honest question, how would the numbers compare if we were testing for influenza the way we are testing for Covid-19? Meaning every one who dies, gets tested.

Probably even worse

Because anything that is ILI (influenza-like illness) gets counted in the CFR for flu.
If 10% of those aren't actual flu, but something else, then the flu case #s go down, not up.

Covid is well north of 10x more lethal than flu. Repeat that to yourselves as many times as you need until it sinks it.

Sequellae from Covid are also much worse than for typical flu; many many times worse.
 
Worse for MOST demographics.

Why didn't you post all the numbers for each group, i.e., the total number of deaths?

For instance, to put it in perspective, the total number of deaths for 0-4 is 34. For 5-17 it's 58.

You can speculate all you want on how that would compare to the flu, but that's all it is - speculation. Had I died 2 years ago from pneumonia, I seriously doubt if anyone would have cared or checked that it resulted from Type A flu.
 
  • Like
Reactions: anon_89hvcc2uyzmki
Why didn't you post all the numbers for each group, i.e., the total number of deaths?
Why do I need to?

I used those numbers to compute the CFR mortality %'s, and compared them to the relative risk for 2017-18 flu.

If you're incapable of recognizing this is >25x more lethal than flu, I'm not sure I can help you out. Go retake grade school math or something.

EDIT: Also, those rates DO NOT include sequellae like MIS-C deaths. So these are only directly due to Covid. MIS-C deaths probably tally on a few extra deaths for the younger groups.
 
Well, get him rollin' on that "fountain of smart".
We need that. Badly.

In my family (children and grandchildren), I doubt we'll see any brain surgeons or rocket scientists, which is ok with me. I raised my 3 boys to be open-minded and logical - don't just lumber along with the herd. Question things when they don't look or sound right. Look at both sides before making decisions.

And, to recognized BS when they see it or smell it.

We really, really need a fountain of smart. I fear the country is getting dumber by the day.
 
Actual rates, from CDCs demographics site:

Covid19
0-4 yrs: 0.04% 1 in 2600
5-17 yrs: 0.02% 1 in 5700
18-29 yrs: 0.07% 1 in 1500
30-39 yrs: 0.23% 1 in 430
40-49 yrs: 0.61% 1 in 164
50-64 yrs: 2.2% 1 in 46
65-74 yrs: 8.1% 1 in 12
75-84 yrs: 17.8% 1 in 6
85+ yrs: 28.5% 1 in 3.5
Now, let's go to the scorecards, Jim and compare this to typical flu mortality:

2017-18 FLU
0-4 yrs: 0.0006% 1 in 166,667
5-17 yrs: 0.001% 1 in 100,000
18-29 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
30-39 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
40-49 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
50-64 yrs: 0.011% 1 in 9434
65+: 0.1% 1 in 1000

Relative Risk Ratio: Covid Vs 2017-18 Flu:

0-4 yrs: 64x
5-17 yrs: 17.5x
18-29 yrs: 32x
30-39 yrs: 116x
40-49 yrs: 306x
50-64 yrs: 207x
65+:
80-285x

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm


#GoReviewActualDataNotSomeRandomDude'sTweet

That is not the actual mortality data of all infected with the virus. That is the mortality data for the people who tested positive for the virus. There is a difference and you know this.
 
Actual rates, from CDCs demographics site:

Covid19
0-4 yrs: 0.04% 1 in 2600
5-17 yrs: 0.02% 1 in 5700
18-29 yrs: 0.07% 1 in 1500
30-39 yrs: 0.23% 1 in 430
40-49 yrs: 0.61% 1 in 164
50-64 yrs: 2.2% 1 in 46
65-74 yrs: 8.1% 1 in 12
75-84 yrs: 17.8% 1 in 6
85+ yrs: 28.5% 1 in 3.5
Now, let's go to the scorecards, Jim and compare this to typical flu mortality:

2017-18 FLU
0-4 yrs: 0.0006% 1 in 166,667
5-17 yrs: 0.001% 1 in 100,000
18-29 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
30-39 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
40-49 yrs: 0.002% 1 in 50,000
50-64 yrs: 0.011% 1 in 9434
65+: 0.1% 1 in 1000

Relative Risk Ratio: Covid Vs 2017-18 Flu:

0-4 yrs: 64x
5-17 yrs: 17.5x
18-29 yrs: 32x
30-39 yrs: 116x
40-49 yrs: 306x
50-64 yrs: 207x
65+:
80-285x

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm


#GoReviewActualDataNotSomeRandomDude'sTweet
Does that factor in all the people who contracted COVID-19 and didn't know they even had it so they were never tested. This is the actual number we need.
 
ADVERTISEMENT