New Florida Poll: Rubio gaining ground on Trump

[The Tradition]

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has cut Donald Trump's lead in Florida to single digits, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday.

Trump leads Rubio by 8 points in the senator's home state, 38 percent to 30 percent.

It's a significant shift from earlier polls that found Trump with a double-digit lead.

In a Public Policy Polling survey released last month, Trump held a 20-point lead. Similarly, he held in a 20-point lead in a One America News Network and Gravis Marketing poll released last month.

Florida is a must-win state for Rubio, who would not have much of a path to the GOP nomination without a victory in his home state.

The loss would also be a significant blow to Trump, given that Florida is a winner-take-all state awarding 99 delegates.

The Monmouth poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) taking 17 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich winning 10 percent.

Rubio leads the front-runner among the about 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their ballots, 48 percent to 23 percent. Trump leads among those who haven't voted yet, 42 percent to 26 percent.

In a hypothetical head-to-head vote between Trump and Rubio in the state, Trump still edges Rubio out, taking 47 percent of the vote to Rubio's 45 percent, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted by phone from March 3 to 6 among 403 Florida voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary. There is a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272055-trump-leads-in-florida

MARCO! MARCO! MARCO!

 

[Huey Grey]

It's only one poll. And even if correct, Rube's is still losing badly. But let's assume that all the other polls are worthless and this one is accurate. In reality, it doesn't really work this way, but we'll just assume it is. Even then, Marco will still have to mount a 10 point swing in just 10 days. That's a tall order, especially for a candidate who has taken a hit himself for his childish antics of late.

 

[The Tradition]

It's only one poll. And even if correct, Rube's is still losing badly. But let's assume that all the other polls are worthless and this one is accurate. In reality, it doesn't really work this way, but we'll just assume it is. Even then, Marco will still have to mount a 10 point swing in just 10 days. That's a tall order, especially for a candidate who has taken a hit himself for his childish antics in this race.

Rubio leads the front-runner among the about 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their ballots, 48 percent to 23 percent. Trump leads among those who haven't voted yet, 42 percent to 26 percent.

This is good news for Rubio. The Trump attack ads are in full swing, and Trump's supporters aren't voting early. This means they're hesitant.

 

[Huey Grey]

Rubio leads the front-runner among the about 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their ballots, 48 percent to 23 percent. Trump leads among those who haven't voted yet, 42 percent to 26 percent.

This is good news for Rubio. The Trump attack ads are in full swing, and Trump's supporters aren't voting early. This means they're hesitant.

I'm just trying to be realistic here. Does Marco have a shot? Sure. But it's not a good shot. I just think that you may be getting your hopes up here.

 

[83Hawk]

Rubio is going to win Florida....period. And I think the margin may surprise some people.

 

[StonesCat]

The bad news is Kasich is going to win Ohio and nobody benefits. One or the other needs to get clear sailing.

 

[ICHawk-I]

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has cut Donald Trump's lead in Florida to single digits, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday.

Trump leads Rubio by 8 points in the senator's home state, 38 percent to 30 percent.

It's a significant shift from earlier polls that found Trump with a double-digit lead.

In a Public Policy Polling survey released last month, Trump held a 20-point lead. Similarly, he held in a 20-point lead in a One America News Network and Gravis Marketing poll released last month.

Florida is a must-win state for Rubio, who would not have much of a path to the GOP nomination without a victory in his home state.

The loss would also be a significant blow to Trump, given that Florida is a winner-take-all state awarding 99 delegates.

The Monmouth poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) taking 17 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich winning 10 percent.

Rubio leads the front-runner among the about 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their ballots, 48 percent to 23 percent. Trump leads among those who haven't voted yet, 42 percent to 26 percent.

In a hypothetical head-to-head vote between Trump and Rubio in the state, Trump still edges Rubio out, taking 47 percent of the vote to Rubio's 45 percent, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted by phone from March 3 to 6 among 403 Florida voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary. There is a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272055-trump-leads-in-florida

MARCO! MARCO! MARCO!

If Marco wins FL does that dilute the deligates enough that no one can win outright, thus leading to a contested convention?
Honestly, I wonder if Rubio is staying in just so that will happen, same with Kasich in Ohio.

 

[BondHawk]

The bad news is Kasich is going to win Ohio and nobody benefits. One or the other needs to get clear sailing.

Umm, America benefits.

 

[naturalmwa]

The bad news is Kasich is going to win Ohio and nobody benefits. One or the other needs to get clear sailing.

Denying Trump a win in any state moves us closer to a fun convention.

 

[CeMar_Clone]

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has cut Donald Trump's lead in Florida to single digits, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday.

Trump leads Rubio by 8 points in the senator's home state, 38 percent to 30 percent.

It's a significant shift from earlier polls that found Trump with a double-digit lead.

In a Public Policy Polling survey released last month, Trump held a 20-point lead. Similarly, he held in a 20-point lead in a One America News Network and Gravis Marketing poll released last month.

Florida is a must-win state for Rubio, who would not have much of a path to the GOP nomination without a victory in his home state.

The loss would also be a significant blow to Trump, given that Florida is a winner-take-all state awarding 99 delegates.

The Monmouth poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) taking 17 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich winning 10 percent.

Rubio leads the front-runner among the about 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their ballots, 48 percent to 23 percent. Trump leads among those who haven't voted yet, 42 percent to 26 percent.

In a hypothetical head-to-head vote between Trump and Rubio in the state, Trump still edges Rubio out, taking 47 percent of the vote to Rubio's 45 percent, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted by phone from March 3 to 6 among 403 Florida voters likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary. There is a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272055-trump-leads-in-florida

MARCO! MARCO! MARCO!

Even if Rubio can win, it is meaningless. Cruz is the candidate that could beat Trump before the convention, but the GOP establishment hates him as much as trump. Rubios and Kasich have no chance to win or be elected.

 

[StonesCat]

Cruz is about at the end of the line of states he is favored in. Cruz isn't winning Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, California, wisconsin, New Jersey etc that have the big hauls. I've always favored Rubio, but seeing Kasich coming on fast in Michigan, down 38-35 in Ohio in a new poll, with the above states to come, I think that's where the juice might be after March 15th.

 

[The Tradition]

Even if Rubio can win, it is meaningless. Cruz is the candidate that could beat Trump before the convention, but the GOP establishment hates him as much as trump. Rubios and Kasich have no chance to win or be elected.

Math wasn't your strong suit in school, huh?

 

[moral_victory]

Math wasn't your strong suit in school, huh?

Or school in general.

 

[83Hawk]

Cruz is about at the end of the line of states he is favored in. Cruz isn't winning Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, California, wisconsin, New Jersey etc that have the big hauls. I've always favored Rubio, but seeing Kasich coming on fast in Michigan, down 38-35 in Ohio in a new poll, with the above states to come, I think that's where the juice might be after March 15th.

The only way Kasich gets the nomination is in a brokered convention. He hasn't been anywhere near to winning a state so far. His odds of winning enough delegates to get the nomination are only slightly better than mine.

All he is doing right now is running for a space on the ticket as VP.

 

[Funky Bunch]

A new poll out today has Trump +20. Rubio is going to have to drop out at some point. I'm thinking it might be better to do it after today's losses. An embarrassing loss in Florida might do him more harm politically than dropping out sooner.

Bay News 9/News 13 3/4 - 3/6 Trump +20

 

[The Tradition]

A new poll out today has Trump +20. Rubio is going to have to drop out at some point. I'm thinking it might be better to do it after today's losses. An embarrassing loss in Florida might do him more harm politically than dropping out sooner.

Bay News 9/News 13 3/4 - 3/6 Trump +20

Sounds like the pollsters are all over the place.

 

[Huey Grey]

Sounds like the pollsters are all over the place.

They are. But Rubio is down in all of them. The only difference is by how much. That doesn't speak of his strength. Quite the opposite. It suggests Rubio may have a rough time in his home state.

 

[83Hawk]

They are. But Rubio is down in all of them. The only difference is by how much. That doesn't speak of his strength. Quite the opposite. It suggests Rubio may have a rough time in his home state.

Plus, Cruz is ramping up his attacks in Florida...not on Trump, but Rubio. This helps Trump there. Cruz wants the race down to him and Trump because he destroy's Trump head to head.

 

[The Tradition]

Plus, Cruz is ramping up his attacks in Florida...not on Trump, but Rubio. This helps Trump there. Cruz wants the race down to him and Trump because he destroy's Trump head to head.

Rubio also beats Trump head-to-head.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272170-poll-trump-loses-head-to-head-vs-cruz-rubio

 

[Huey Grey]

Plus, Cruz is ramping up his attacks in Florida...not on Trump, but Rubio. This helps Trump there. Cruz wants the race down to him and Trump because he destroy's Trump head to head.

I just heard that, too. Plus there are articles out there about Rubio's advisers having a civil war over whether he should drop out. Many apparently think he should before Florida. They don't think he has a realistic chance so don't want to risk his political future by further embarrassing himself by losing in his home state.

 

[The Tradition]

I just heard that, too. Plus there are articles out there about Rubio's advisers having a civil war over whether he should drop out. Many apparently think he should before Florida.

Ahem...

Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign on Tuesday accused rival Ted Cruz’s campaign of circulating a CNN story that said advisers to the Florida senator were pushing him to drop out of the race.

Rubio spokesman Alex Conant said Cruz’s campaign in Hawaii sent the story to its supporters in that state, which holds a presidential contest Tuesday night. The Rubio campaign argues the CNN story is false, though the network is standing by it.

“In Hawaii, we're seeing some dirty tricks by the Ted Cruz campaign,” Conant said during an appearance on MSNBC that touched on the CNN story.

“The Ted Cruz campaign sent that report to their supporters in Hawaii yesterday, to some of our supporters in Hawaii yesterday, suggesting that Marco was getting out of the race,” Conant said. “It's the exact same thing Ted Cruz did to Ben Carson in Iowa. There's no place for that in Republican politics.”

Rubio's campaign forwarded an email to reporters that it said showed the “bogus” story being circulated by the Cruz campaign. The original email from “campaign@tedcruzhawaii.org” referenced the CNN report that some Rubio advisers want him to drop out of the presidential race before his home state primary in Florida on March 15.

Cruz's campaign insisted that the email was not from the Texas senator's campaign, despite the email using an image of Cruz and his campaign logo and purporting to be from the Hawaii arm of his campaign.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/272201-rubio-knocks-cruz-over-dirty-tricks

 

[Huey Grey]

Ahem...

Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign on Tuesday accused rival Ted Cruz’s campaign of circulating a CNN story that said advisers to the Florida senator were pushing him to drop out of the race.

Rubio spokesman Alex Conant said Cruz’s campaign in Hawaii sent the story to its supporters in that state, which holds a presidential contest Tuesday night. The Rubio campaign argues the CNN story is false, though the network is standing by it.

“In Hawaii, we're seeing some dirty tricks by the Ted Cruz campaign,” Conant said during an appearance on MSNBC that touched on the CNN story.

“The Ted Cruz campaign sent that report to their supporters in Hawaii yesterday, to some of our supporters in Hawaii yesterday, suggesting that Marco was getting out of the race,” Conant said. “It's the exact same thing Ted Cruz did to Ben Carson in Iowa. There's no place for that in Republican politics.”

Rubio's campaign forwarded an email to reporters that it said showed the “bogus” story being circulated by the Cruz campaign. The original email from “campaign@tedcruzhawaii.org” referenced the CNN report that some Rubio advisers want him to drop out of the presidential race before his home state primary in Florida on March 15.

Cruz's campaign insisted that the email was not from the Texas senator's campaign, despite the email using an image of Cruz and his campaign logo and purporting to be from the Hawaii arm of his campaign.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/272201-rubio-knocks-cruz-over-dirty-tricks

I didn't see that. Even so, it's doing it job of making Rubio look nonviable.

I originally saw this story in mainstream media outlets. Marco has a clear viability problem. It was totally believable when Cruz did this same exact thing to Carson and it's believable with Rubio today.

That doesn't excuse this dirty underhanded tactic by Cruz, but the fact that so many bought into it means that Rubio has problems.

 

[83Hawk]

Rubio also beats Trump head-to-head.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272170-poll-trump-loses-head-to-head-vs-cruz-rubio

Maybe so, but Rubio is not a viable candidate at this point, nor likely to be.