New Kenpom Rankings

[HawkAssassin]

B1G (Difference from last year's final rankings)
7 - Wisconsin (+15)
10 - Ohio St (-2)
12 - Iowa (+11)
15 - Michigan St (-8)
17 - Michigan (-1)
18 - Illinois (+12)
25 - Purdue (-1)
26 - Indiana (+8)
27 - Rutgers (+1)
35 - Minnesota (-8)
51 - Maryland (-40)
64 - Penn St (-38)
70 - Northwestern (+62)
118 - Nebraska (+44)

 

[David1979]

Funny, because I have been saying these preseason polls have Illinois too high and OSU not high enough.

 

[SSG T]

Here's the ORtg/DRtg/AdjEM for them

ORtg Drtg AdjEM
Wis 108.2 84.6 +23.68
OSU 108.3 86.3 +22.00
IA 113.3 92.0 +21.27
MSU 109.2 88.5 +20.75
UM 109.2 88.8 +20.41
IL 108.1 88.1 +20.05

FTR - ORtg is points per 100 possessions (higher is better), DRtg is point per 100 possessions allowed (lower is better), AdjEM is the difference between the two (bigger is better)

Iowa is 2nd in ORtg, .1 behind Gonzaga. The 92.0 for their DRtg would be better than last season by 6.6 and would move them from 97th last year to 73rd this year. The next highest rated team with a DRtg outside the top 50 is LSU, at #37 overall, DRtg of 93.3 (87th). Oh, and they have Iowa's AdjT (Tempo) at 73.5 (64th), which would be 3.3 faster (IIRC, AdjT is possessions per 40 minutes).

If you need/want any other explanations, just ask.

 

[HawkAssassin]

Funny, because I have been saying these preseason polls have Illinois too high and OSU not high enough.

From what I've read, the Harvard transfer isn't going to be able to start the season for OSU. Depending how much he's able to do in practice now, it might take him a while to get up to the speed of the game physically and mentally.

For me, I'm hesitant to get on the OSU bandwagon like I did last year. Last year they had the #1 B1G recruiting class and, fast forward 1 year, two of those 3 guys are gone. I know they would've been a 4-6 seed, but they could've been better. They still felt meh for a good chunk of last year.

 

[silasstarr]

Funny, because I have been saying these preseason polls have Illinois too high and OSU not high enough.

Didn't OSU lose their best player?

 

[HerknKirk]

Here's the ORtg/DRtg/AdjEM for them

ORtg Drtg AdjEM
Wis 108.2 84.6 +23.68
OSU 108.3 86.3 +22.00
IA 113.3 92.0 +21.27
MSU 109.2 88.5 +20.75
UM 109.2 88.8 +20.41
IL 108.1 88.1 +20.05

FTR - ORtg is points per 100 possessions (higher is better), DRtg is point per 100 possessions allowed (lower is better), AdjEM is the difference between the two (bigger is better)

Iowa is 2nd in ORtg, .1 behind Gonzaga. The 92.0 for their DRtg would be better than last season by 6.6 and would move them from 97th last year to 73rd this year. The next highest rated team with a DRtg outside the top 50 is LSU, at #37 overall, DRtg of 93.3 (87th). Oh, and they have Iowa's AdjT (Tempo) at 73.5 (64th), which would be 3.3 faster (IIRC, AdjT is possessions per 40 minutes).

If you need/want any other explanations, just ask.

Giving Iowa +6 in DRtg is a stretch. I think the defense gets better this year overall, but 92 out the gate is generous

 

[blockm2]

Giving Iowa +6 in DRtg is a stretch. I think the defense gets better this year overall, but 92 out the gate is generous

the raw numbers in O and D rating are a bit odd, but the relative ranks much more important. For example, Iowa's current preseason ranks on offense would have had them the 20th best offense last year but their preseason rank is #2. So while it seems quite unlikely Iowa's adjusted D efficiency ends up 92 PPP, jumping up a little bit from 97th to 73rd is fairly reasonable. For comparison, that would have finished 12th in the Big Ten last year in defense and not even particularly close to 11th place which ranked 41st nationally.

In short, the rank is more important in preseason than the absolute numbers for offense and defense.

 

[SSG T]

the raw numbers in O and D rating are a bit odd, but the relative ranks much more important. For example, Iowa's current preseason ranks on offense would have had them the 20th best offense last year but their preseason rank is #2. So while it seems quite unlikely Iowa's adjusted D efficiency ends up 92 PPP, jumping up a little bit from 97th to 73rd is fairly reasonable. For comparison, that would have finished 12th in the Big Ten last year in defense and not even particularly close to 11th place which ranked 41st nationally.

In short, the rank is more important in preseason than the absolute numbers for offense and defense.

Yep. I've point that out here before. Take the AdjEM, Iowa is 12th preseason at 21.17 (tied with UK). That would have been good for 9th last year, and 18th the year before.

I mean, there are numbers to shoot for, generally +20 is a really good team and +25 is a FF contender. How you get there is different for all teams, and varies a bit year to year.

 

[blockm2]

Yep. I've point that out here before. Take the AdjEM, Iowa is 12th preseason at 21.17 (tied with UK). That would have been good for 9th last year, and 18th the year before.

I mean, there are numbers to shoot for, generally +20 is a really good team and +25 is a FF contender. How you get there is different for all teams, and varies a bit year to year.

the other thing KenPom used to point out every year was that you have to exceed expectations to maintain your rank. For example in preseason the #1 team is usually in the +25 range, but at end of season you need to be around +30 to +35 to be #1. Simply meeting an expectation of +26 (which would be #1 right now in preseason) would likely see you finish the season in the 5-10 range as other teams pass you by. Gotta outperform to stay at the top. Wisconsin +23 in preseason which is best in the Big Ten right now, but the best in the Big Ten is usually in the +27 to +30 range at the end of the season.