A new CNN poll hints at the conundrum for former president Donald Trump’s rivals for the 2024 GOP nomination when it comes to exploiting his recent indictment for possible political gain. His voters, not theirs, are the ones most closely watching his legal troubles.
And a plurality of Republicans doesn’t want to hear from the other candidates on the matter, while a small minority want the non-Trumpers to criticize the former president.
The poll is the first conducted entirely since Trump was arraigned on charges he illegally retained federal documents, including many highly classified secrets, and illegally defied various efforts by the government to retrieve them, including a subpoena, for about a year.
In that sense, it’s the first suggestion of an answer to the question of how this particular jeopardy, which even some of his past allies have described as extremely serious, might shape the battle for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Caveats:
“Overall, 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice for the party’s nomination for president, down from 53% in a May CNN poll,” Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy reported.
“In addition to the decline in support for Trump’s candidacy, his favorability rating among Republican-aligned voters has dipped, from 77% in May to 67% now, while the share who say they would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances has climbed, from 16% in May to 23% now,” they wrote.
Among all Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the CNN poll found:
Republican support for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), Trump’s nearest challenger, stayed at 26 percent. But the proportion of those saying they would not back him under any circumstances climbed six points to 21 percent, not that different from the former president’s numbers.
And you could imagine the field raising fresh questions about his chances after the government charged him – something like “Oh, we all love Trump, but this indictment will hurt him with the independent-voting normies we need to win.” Especially since 62 percent of independents in the poll said Trump should end his campaign now that he’s been charged.
But CNN’s new poll found very little change in whether Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say the party has a better chance to win with Trump as the nominee versus with someone else.
That’s not where an incumbent president seeking reelection wants to be, even one who likes to tell voters “don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.”
Public opinion polls show the Democratic nomination is Biden’s to lose, and it’s not close.
So how do Democrats and Democratic learners feel? CNN found 85 percent of them are either extremely (63 percent) or very (23 percent) motivated to vote. (For Republicans and Republican learners, the number is 87 percent.)
So they’re probably Blue voters, whether or not they are voters who are blue.
And a plurality of Republicans doesn’t want to hear from the other candidates on the matter, while a small minority want the non-Trumpers to criticize the former president.
The poll is the first conducted entirely since Trump was arraigned on charges he illegally retained federal documents, including many highly classified secrets, and illegally defied various efforts by the government to retrieve them, including a subpoena, for about a year.
In that sense, it’s the first suggestion of an answer to the question of how this particular jeopardy, which even some of his past allies have described as extremely serious, might shape the battle for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.
Caveats:
- Like any defendant, he’s presumed innocent until proven guilty
- A poll is a snapshot, not a crystal ball.
The bad news for Trump
The self-described billionaire remains the front-runner for the nomination. But some of his support inside the party has eroded, CNN noted its own write-up of its poll.“Overall, 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice for the party’s nomination for president, down from 53% in a May CNN poll,” Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy reported.
“In addition to the decline in support for Trump’s candidacy, his favorability rating among Republican-aligned voters has dipped, from 77% in May to 67% now, while the share who say they would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances has climbed, from 16% in May to 23% now,” they wrote.
GOP to the others: Attack the case or shhhhh
So that should redound to the other GOP contenders’ benefit, right? Ehhh, not so much.Among all Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the CNN poll found:
- Just 12 percent say the other Republican candidates should mostly publicly condemn him.
- Another 45 percent say the others should not take a stand on the case either way.
- And 42 percent say Trump’s rivals should publicly condemn the government’s decision to charge him.
Republican support for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), Trump’s nearest challenger, stayed at 26 percent. But the proportion of those saying they would not back him under any circumstances climbed six points to 21 percent, not that different from the former president’s numbers.
Trump’s electability
One recurring criticism some of Trump’s rivals have leveled against him is that he not only lost in 2020 but cost the party control of the Senate and kept GOP numbers down in the House.And you could imagine the field raising fresh questions about his chances after the government charged him – something like “Oh, we all love Trump, but this indictment will hurt him with the independent-voting normies we need to win.” Especially since 62 percent of independents in the poll said Trump should end his campaign now that he’s been charged.
But CNN’s new poll found very little change in whether Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say the party has a better chance to win with Trump as the nominee versus with someone else.
- With Trump: 49 percent in March, 51 percent in June
- Without someone else: 50 percent in March, 49 percent in June.
What about Biden?
Go digging in the details of the poll, and you’ll find President Biden’s overall job approval at 32 percent, and his overall disapproval at 56 percent. (Trump is at 33 percent and 59 percent, respectively.)That’s not where an incumbent president seeking reelection wants to be, even one who likes to tell voters “don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.”
Public opinion polls show the Democratic nomination is Biden’s to lose, and it’s not close.
So how do Democrats and Democratic learners feel? CNN found 85 percent of them are either extremely (63 percent) or very (23 percent) motivated to vote. (For Republicans and Republican learners, the number is 87 percent.)
So they’re probably Blue voters, whether or not they are voters who are blue.
